- Adam Eaton was demoted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley today, most likely to call up J.A. Happ. Happ performed well in place of Brett Myers when was sent down to the minors in early July. This time Happ will most likely be a reliever. In my opinion, Myers should be bumped into the setup role and Happ should take Myers spot in the rotation.
- Rumors on the Internet are speculating that the Phillies could make a run at Manny Ramirez. Yeah, that makes sense. Why would they trade young guys for a soon-to-be 37 year old free agent? Ramirez is having a decent year but he is not worth the headache. I'd much rather send a collection of prospects to Colorado for Matt holiday and Brian Fuenets than to Boston for Ramirez. Ain't gonna happen.
- The Phillies are back in the place where they played so well last year: 2nd. After leading the NL East for almost 60 consecutive days, the Mets are now on top. Yuck. However there are a lot of games to play. Check back the last week of September.
- Philadelphia's deficiency over the last 6 weeks has been an inconsistent offense. They may break out and score 12+ runs one game and then struggle to plate 3 the next. If that gets worked out, which it should, the Phillies will be back in 1st.
Monday, July 28, 2008
Phillies Potpourri
Here are some random Phillies notes:
Outside the Lines PSU Segment
I made this following post on a cbs.sportsline message board and then realized that it probably works as a blog post too. Here it is:
Personally, I thought it was pretty stupid on the whole but they were admittedly solid on a couple things. Barely.
I still believe that the whole Meridian Apartment fight was terrible for the program. The fact that Scirrotto called up a plethora of players was probably the single most stupid act of that whole ordeal. There is no doubt in my mind that guys like Baker went in and trashed the place (especially Baker because of his history). I believe everyone involved in that incident got off easy (except people like King who shouldn't have been charged at all) but that probably has a lot to do with DA Madiera being incompetent and a lack of evidence. The HUB fight was ridiculous too. We're definitely worthy of criticism for that as well. JoePa was pretty stupid for stopping the stadium cleanup with a couple games left too. I totally understand that he thought they learned their lesson but that just opened up another unneeded opportunity for outsiders to criticize the program.
However, as others have noted, ESPN badly slanted a lot of the story. They put out all those numbers but some of them are retarded offenses. Underage drinking is something that I would guess that probably ~25% of PSU students have gotten. I'm not condoning it but I'm just saying it happens. So many charges have been dropped too. If a player isn't convicted of something, what the hell is the point of noting it? Innocent until proven guilty, perhaps? Not only that, but after the HUB fight which was almost a year ago, the only notable bit of trouble from the program was Chris Bell and he was swiftly booted from the team. JoePa also admitted fault for that saying he should have gotten help for him sooner.
Lastly, bringing in Stephen A. Smith at the end of the segment probably ruined any bit of credibility the segment had. Because he wrote for the Philadelphia Inquirer, that apparently made him a credible source for Penn State football, or sorry, "University of Penn State" football according to him. What a klutz. He knows his basketball (some of the time) but I have no clue why they would bring him in on this. If anything, maybe they should have brought in a dual panel at the end with Todd Blackledge and Smith or somebody else critical of the program.
Another thing to note is that I feel like the emerging story coming out of Iowa makes anything PSU has done over the past year look like nothing. It's one thing for a football player to be falsely accused of rape (Austin Scott) but it's another for a school to COVER UP a rape. Iowa is gonna catch hell for this....they already are in some ways.
Personally, I thought it was pretty stupid on the whole but they were admittedly solid on a couple things. Barely.
I still believe that the whole Meridian Apartment fight was terrible for the program. The fact that Scirrotto called up a plethora of players was probably the single most stupid act of that whole ordeal. There is no doubt in my mind that guys like Baker went in and trashed the place (especially Baker because of his history). I believe everyone involved in that incident got off easy (except people like King who shouldn't have been charged at all) but that probably has a lot to do with DA Madiera being incompetent and a lack of evidence. The HUB fight was ridiculous too. We're definitely worthy of criticism for that as well. JoePa was pretty stupid for stopping the stadium cleanup with a couple games left too. I totally understand that he thought they learned their lesson but that just opened up another unneeded opportunity for outsiders to criticize the program.
However, as others have noted, ESPN badly slanted a lot of the story. They put out all those numbers but some of them are retarded offenses. Underage drinking is something that I would guess that probably ~25% of PSU students have gotten. I'm not condoning it but I'm just saying it happens. So many charges have been dropped too. If a player isn't convicted of something, what the hell is the point of noting it? Innocent until proven guilty, perhaps? Not only that, but after the HUB fight which was almost a year ago, the only notable bit of trouble from the program was Chris Bell and he was swiftly booted from the team. JoePa also admitted fault for that saying he should have gotten help for him sooner.
Lastly, bringing in Stephen A. Smith at the end of the segment probably ruined any bit of credibility the segment had. Because he wrote for the Philadelphia Inquirer, that apparently made him a credible source for Penn State football, or sorry, "University of Penn State" football according to him. What a klutz. He knows his basketball (some of the time) but I have no clue why they would bring him in on this. If anything, maybe they should have brought in a dual panel at the end with Todd Blackledge and Smith or somebody else critical of the program.
Another thing to note is that I feel like the emerging story coming out of Iowa makes anything PSU has done over the past year look like nothing. It's one thing for a football player to be falsely accused of rape (Austin Scott) but it's another for a school to COVER UP a rape. Iowa is gonna catch hell for this....they already are in some ways.
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Does losing the Super Bowl doom a team to mediocrity the following season?
Actually, that has been the case recently. Only the 2006 Seattle Seahawks have manged to make the playoffs the year after losing the Super Bowl in the last 7 years. Going back 15 years shows that this wasn't always the case, however. The 2001 Giants started this trend and it has been building ever since. Examining Super Bowl winners and loser over the last 15 seasons shows that a team that loses the Super Bowl only makes the playoffs the following season 47% of the time. However the Super Bowl champion makes the playoffs 73% of the time.
Click image to enlarge statistics.
While even the Super Bowl champions suffer a little, they still make the playoffs almost 3/4 of the time. The losers suffer and struggle to make it even 50% of the time. The Super Bowl champion may see a W/L change of -2, where as the loser tends to lose an addition 4 games the next year. Ouch. What does that mean for 2008?
Well I don't see the Patriots missing the playoffs but it is entirely possible for them to finish 12-4 this season, despite having the easiest schedule in the league. Teams showed in the playoffs how to adjust to their form of offense. Their defense is merely average. New England will make the playoffs but they won't even come close to 16-0 again.
The Giants on the other hand will more than likely join the 2000 Broncos, 2003 Patriots, 2004 Buccaneers, and 2006 Steelers as defending Super Bowl champs not to male the playoffs in the last 15 years. The Giants were hot and lucky at the right time. The odds of that happening again are slim. The Super Bowl winner is the target of the rest of the league and numbers show that the winners tend to lose 2 more games the following season. This brings the Giants in at 8-8. They play in the ridiculously tough NFC East. I think 8-8 is spot on, give or take a win and definitely no playoffs.
Click image to enlarge statistics.While even the Super Bowl champions suffer a little, they still make the playoffs almost 3/4 of the time. The losers suffer and struggle to make it even 50% of the time. The Super Bowl champion may see a W/L change of -2, where as the loser tends to lose an addition 4 games the next year. Ouch. What does that mean for 2008?
Well I don't see the Patriots missing the playoffs but it is entirely possible for them to finish 12-4 this season, despite having the easiest schedule in the league. Teams showed in the playoffs how to adjust to their form of offense. Their defense is merely average. New England will make the playoffs but they won't even come close to 16-0 again.
The Giants on the other hand will more than likely join the 2000 Broncos, 2003 Patriots, 2004 Buccaneers, and 2006 Steelers as defending Super Bowl champs not to male the playoffs in the last 15 years. The Giants were hot and lucky at the right time. The odds of that happening again are slim. The Super Bowl winner is the target of the rest of the league and numbers show that the winners tend to lose 2 more games the following season. This brings the Giants in at 8-8. They play in the ridiculously tough NFC East. I think 8-8 is spot on, give or take a win and definitely no playoffs.
Monday, July 21, 2008
Why Steve Phillips was probably fired as Mets GM
I was watching tonight's telecast of the Cardinals v. Brewers game and he dropped a doozy of a line. How did the Mets ever hire this guy? Here's the situation:
Brewers closer Salomon Torres had blown a save in the bottom of the 9th, allowing the Cards to tie the game at 3-3. In the top of the 10th, Bill Hall hit a solo shot to give the Brewers the lead. A couple batters later, Torres came up to bat. Because that meant he would likely come in to try to finish the game (which he did), Steve Phillips seemed to find the situation amusing as he said:
"So what is he going to get, a blown save and a save?"
I am not joking when I say he was dead serious in saying this. He absolutely was. Not only that but the other color guy, Orel Hershiser (a former PITCHER), chimed in and agreed in finding that 'fact' amusing. Fortunately, Phillips had a play by play guy in the booth (Dan Shulman) who knew what he was talking about as corrected him in saying that it would be a blown save and a win if things held up. Something that anyone that is a fan of baseball should know. Phillips tried to cover up his gaffe by saying things like 'its hot up here' blah blah blah. Not buying it, dude.
For the record, Torres did end up getting a blown save andddd....a win.
Brewers closer Salomon Torres had blown a save in the bottom of the 9th, allowing the Cards to tie the game at 3-3. In the top of the 10th, Bill Hall hit a solo shot to give the Brewers the lead. A couple batters later, Torres came up to bat. Because that meant he would likely come in to try to finish the game (which he did), Steve Phillips seemed to find the situation amusing as he said:
"So what is he going to get, a blown save and a save?"
I am not joking when I say he was dead serious in saying this. He absolutely was. Not only that but the other color guy, Orel Hershiser (a former PITCHER), chimed in and agreed in finding that 'fact' amusing. Fortunately, Phillips had a play by play guy in the booth (Dan Shulman) who knew what he was talking about as corrected him in saying that it would be a blown save and a win if things held up. Something that anyone that is a fan of baseball should know. Phillips tried to cover up his gaffe by saying things like 'its hot up here' blah blah blah. Not buying it, dude.
For the record, Torres did end up getting a blown save andddd....a win.
My 2008 Dolphins Outlook
As most of you know by now the Miami Dolphins have traded DE/OLB Jason Taylor to the Washington Redskins for 2 draft picks (a 2009 2nd rounder and a 2010 6th rounder). This trade was a necessity for both sides. The Redskins lost 2 DEs during training camp practices yesterday. The defensive line was already a weak spot on the Redskins defense and losing a leader like Phillip Daniels to an ACL tear is hard to handle. To add insult to injury, reserve DE Alex Buzbee ruptured an Achilles and was lost for the season as well. Washington already has Erasmus James on the PUP list. Acquiring a veteran to team with Andre Carter became a huge need in just a few hours. Why not get one of the best in the league?
From a Dolphins stand point the trade was a necessity as well. Letting Taylor go is hard to do, since he was a Miami cornerstone and the lone bright spot on the roster; he was a known commodity. His presence on the field was matched only by his presence off the field. His immense amount of charity work in and around the south Florida area can not be overlooked. However, he had become a distraction of sorts with his ambiguous statements of whether or not he would report to training camp and how long he believed he'd continue to play football. The Dolphins have been trying to rid themselves of Hollywood Taylor since late-March. Bill Parcells, Jeff Ireland, and Tony Sparano could have taken what was offered around draft time - a measly 3rd rounder - or wait it out. The latter won and it turns out for the best. Casual people who recognize the name "Jason Taylor" will think that Miami was robbed. The die hard football fans will know this is not the case. Not a single team would have offered a 1st round pick for a DE who will be 34 this fall and may only want to play 1 or 2 more years. This trade works out incredibly well for both sides. The Redskins get a big name and proven player that could wreak havoc in a strong NFC East in 2008. The Dolphins rid themselves of someone who had become a pain and more of a drama queen than the person and player that gave Miami 11 strong seasons. The Dolphins grabbed 2 more picks to help the rebuilding process that should catapult them to competitor status by 2010.
OK so now, what do I think will happen for the Miami Dolphins this year? Well I am glad you asked!
The 2008 Dolphins will be better. I guarantee that. It would be hard for them to become much worse, right? The odds of having back-to-back 1 win seasons is extremely small. It has happened only once since 1970 - the 1972 & 1973 HoustonOilers won 1 of 14 games - and never since the NFL instituted a 16 game schedule in 1978. With the new "trifecta" in Miami - Parcells, Ireland, Sparano - things are in rebuilding mode for the 3rd time in 4 years. Yuck. But this installment of Dolphins rebuilding feels right. We have the right men in place to lay the foundation; that's what Parcells does. He has been building the trenches for a return to respectability in 2009 or 2010. This season is not supposed to be a giant renaissance, where the Dolphins win 10 games and are a force in January. No, this is when the new regime finds out who can cut it, who has the smarts, and who is tough. Winning 7-9 games this years would be wonderful when compared to the pathetic 2007 season. Newsflash: it probably won't happen.
The Dolphins are on the right path. Finally the football management has a plan not only for this season but for 3 years in the future. They see the potential. However it takes a few years for it to bloom. The Dolphins are very young along the offensive line. There will be at least 1 rookie starter - 2008 #1 overall pick Jake long at LT - and possibly another at guard (Shawn Murphy or Donald Thomas). Center Samson Satele is only entering his 2nd season. There is promise here but it will take at least this season and possibly 2009 for them to mature and gel as a unit.
The running back position is a bit of question, too. Ronnie Brown looked phenomenal early last year but an ACL injury is nothing to take lightly. Can he return to form and challenge Marshall Faulk's record of total yards in a season? Will Ricky Williams become the back he was in 2002 and 2003? If both rebound to their old form the Dolphins have possibly the best 1, 2 punch in the entire league. If not the power running game will suffer mightily.
Perhaps the weakest position on offense is WR. Ted Ginn was brought in for his speed but is still rather raw. He is a dynamic returner but now will be the undisputed #1 receiver. He has to learn fast and show huge strides this year. Falling in behind him will be free agent signee Ernest Wilford, who will be the possession/red zone target. He is big, strong, and has the best hands on the team. The third WR will most likley be Derek Hagan, who has shown some flashes but also drops a lot of passes. The unit is young and has potential. However they have not proved that they can handle the pressure.
Everyone knows about the problems Miami has had at QB this millennium. The position has become a black hole after the departure of DanMarino. There is a 3-way battle for the job entering training camp. Josh McCown vs John Beck vs Chad Henne. Who comes out on top? "Experts" say Josh McCown will start for a few games. A lot of fans believe it will be John Beck. I say Chad Henne. No matter who starts they have to erase the memories of futility from Cleo Lemon and Beck last season. We are not expecting a Peyton Manning or Tom Bracy performance; just something that keeps us in games. Someone that can make all the throws and avoid mistakes. Teams should always be looking for the next Trent Dilfer rather than the next Dan Marino. Dilfer kept his teams in games; Marino won games himself. It is much easier to find and assemble a team around a Dilfer than it is to with a Marino (or Manning or Brady). A stud QB doesn't come around every decade. Serviceable ones do. Can McCown, Beck, or Henne fill those kind of shoes? Hopefully.
The Dolphins defense went from being one of the best in 2006 to one of the worst in 2007. They couldn't stop the run at all. New acquisition Jason Ferguson will fill the giant void at nose tackle as the Dolphins institute a base 3-4 defense. Vonnie Holliday and Matt Roth will start a the defensive end spots but rookies Phillip Merling and Kendall Langford should see some time, as will free agent signee Randy Starks. Starks is capable of playing NT as well. The line should be improved from last year and there is plenty of depth.
The linebacker corps will look drastically different on opening day this year. First, the team will now use 4 linebackers instead of 3. Zach Thomas - the heart and sole of the team for 12 years - is now gone. Jason Taylor, expected to be a rush OLB this season like in 2006, is gone as well. Channing Crowder and Akin Ayodele will most likely start inside with Joey Porter and Charlie Anderson performing on the outside. Reggie Torbor and Quentin Moses will fight for spots as well and will fit into the rotation. The loss of Thomas and Taylor however definitely means this unit is not what it would have been with them.
The secondary is a bit underrated, actually. This may surprise many people. They were average against the pass last year but were able to do this despite a ridiculous amount of injuries to the safeties. Yeremiah Bell and Jason Allen look to be the starters deep with Will Allen and Michael Lehan on the corners. Andre Goodman should be the nickelback. These definitely aren't locks though. Chris Crocker, Keith Davis, and Renaldo Hill will push Bell and J. Allen for sure. There are no standouts here but W. Allen is very underrated and is a competent #1.
After breaking down the positions I have to come to the conclusion that Miami should finish at 5-11, give or take a win. They will not finish as the worst team in the league but picking in the Top 10 during the 2009 draft is probable. If Jason Taylor were still here he may have been able to guarantee us a 6-10 or 7-9 finish. The loss of his production can't be undervalued. A 5-11 record would be an improvement over 2007 and shows that this once proud franchise is on its way back.
Soccer is officially getting bigger in this country
Columbus Crew fans brawling with fans of the opposing English Premier League team (West Ham) is a very promising sign. Read about it.
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Henne Relaxes Before Training Camp
Dolphins 2nd round pick Chad Henne has been relaxing back home before he starts his first NFL training camp on July 26th in Miami. A friend of mine spotted him at the Wilson High School gymnasium running sprints (good to know he is working out during his time off). He was also in Leesport, PA on Saturday for an autograph session. It seems as though the night before said session, Chad made a huge life decision; he asked his girlfriend of many years (reported as 7, that sounds about right) to marry him. The South Florida Sun-Sentinel picked up on this. Omar Kelly, in his Dolphins blog, had this to say:
Um, thanks for the life lesson? Anyway, the blue text in the excerpt linked to this article from the Reading Eagle. According to the paper, Chad gave Brittany Hartman a 5.2 carat diamond ring. Damn! This leads me to believe that he will be signing his first multi-million dollar contract with Miami any day now. And that is good news for Dolphin fans.
Congratulations, Chad and Brittany!
Um, thanks for the life lesson? Anyway, the blue text in the excerpt linked to this article from the Reading Eagle. According to the paper, Chad gave Brittany Hartman a 5.2 carat diamond ring. Damn! This leads me to believe that he will be signing his first multi-million dollar contract with Miami any day now. And that is good news for Dolphin fans.Congratulations, Chad and Brittany!
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Amen!
Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk is a bit of a polarizing blogging persona. He has his opinions and sentiments and mixes them with colorful comments on anything revolving around the NFL. Florio also writes for The Sporting News and his most recent piece is one of, if not his, best that I've read... mostly because it echos everything I've been saying here for months. Here's the title: Favre more diva than good ol' boy. Damn straight. Check out Florio's article here and then head on over to PFT for more football offerings during this dead time before training camp (the Jets actually begin tomorrow!). I specifically like the end of point 3 and everything about point number 4. Enjoy!
Picture also from PFT.
Picture also from PFT.Tuesday, July 8, 2008
One Win Wonders
The Miami Dolphins (my team of choice) finished their worst season in franchise history last year at an abysmal 1-15. Their only win came in OT after Baltimore Ravens kicker Matt Stover failed to capitalize on 2 FGs that would have ended the game (one at the end of regulation and the other in OT). However, with training camp less than 3 weeks away that season is in the past and hope springs eternal for not only Miami but the 30 other clubs that failed to capture the elusive Lombardi trophy.
A team that manages to win only 1 game is in full rebuilding mode, a term that makes veteran players cringe. What are the chances that the Dolphins improve after the disastrous 2007-2008 season? Can they make the playoffs? As usual, I resort to the numbers. I went back through franchise records of all 32 teams to find the epitome of suck: a season in which a team won 1 (or fewer) games. After grabbing those years I looked at the following 3 seasons to see what kind of improvement they made. Finally, how many of those teams manage to make the playoffs during those three years of rebuilding. This little analysis can also bring to light the ghosts of history and demonstrate how awful some professional teams have been.
Here are a few observations...
So if your team finished a season with 1 (or 0) wins, the following year usually results in approximately 5 or 6 wins (based on a 16 game slate). Not too bad. Usually your team will be at 7 wins after the second season, and approximately 8 after the third. However, no teams have ever made the playoffs the year after winning 1 or fewer games and only 3 of the 13 made the playoffs in year 2 or 3.
The best rebuilding example was the Cowboys. If every team could do it the league would experience even more turnover. The Cowboys went from worst team in the league in 1989 to Super Bowl champs following the 1991 and 1992 season. Worst to first in 2 years!
I frequent many Dolphins message boards and their is plenty of optimism out there. Probably too much but that is what fans typically do. Some fans honestly believe the Dolphins can finish 8-8 in '08. Possible? Sure! The '92 Colts and '97 Jets went from 1-15 to 9-7 and the '74 Oilers went from 1-13 to 7-7. It isn't out of the realm of possibility.
It is interesting to note that Bill Parcells is the man responsible for resurrecting the Jets in 1997. Now he isn't the coach in Miami but he is definitely molding the team with GM Jeff Ireland. Parcells has become somewhat of a rebuilding legend. Here is what he has done. The first year listed is the year BEFORE Parcells took over. The next 3 years are the 3-year Rebuilding seasons.
The Parcells rebuilding plan is actually erratic. Only his Giants got better each year, culminating with a Super Bowl in Season 4 of the Tuna Era. He took the Patriots to the Super Bowl in season 2, the Jets to the AFC Championship in Season 2, and the Cowboys to the playoffs in Season 1. However, after a successful year the next season was rather average for each team. None of those three improved. While I believe Parcells is a great football mind, I expect the biggest improvement in Year 1 and not much after that, which is actually to be expected. No one in Miami believe he will stick around for more than 3 seasons. Hopefully someone will be brought in after him that takes them the next step. Parcells can get Miami to slightly above .500, but expecting more than 1 playoff berth in the next 3 years is a bit unreasonable. I expect Miami to improve like the statistics say: 6-10 in 2008, 8-8 in 2009, 9-7 in 2010 with Parcells stepping down. Parcells builds the foundation; it's up to the next guy to get the extra yards.
A team that manages to win only 1 game is in full rebuilding mode, a term that makes veteran players cringe. What are the chances that the Dolphins improve after the disastrous 2007-2008 season? Can they make the playoffs? As usual, I resort to the numbers. I went back through franchise records of all 32 teams to find the epitome of suck: a season in which a team won 1 (or fewer) games. After grabbing those years I looked at the following 3 seasons to see what kind of improvement they made. Finally, how many of those teams manage to make the playoffs during those three years of rebuilding. This little analysis can also bring to light the ghosts of history and demonstrate how awful some professional teams have been.
| Buffalo Bills | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1971 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 7.1% | 0 |
| 1972 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 28.6% | 0 |
| 1973 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 64.3% | 0 |
| 1974 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 64.3% | 1 |
| Carolina Panthers | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 2001 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 2002 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | 0 |
| 2003 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 68.8% | 1 |
| 2004 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | 0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1989 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 1990 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | 0 |
| 1991 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 68.8% | 1 |
| 1992 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 81.3% | 1 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1982 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1983 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.8% | 0 |
| 1984 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 25.0% | 0 |
| 1985 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
| 1991 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 1992 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | 0 |
| 1993 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 25.0% | 0 |
| 1994 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 |
| New England Patriots | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1990 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 1991 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 37.5% | 0 |
| 1992 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 0 |
| 1993 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
| New Orleans Saints | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1980 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 1981 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 25.0% | 0 |
| 1982 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 44.4% | 0 |
| 1983 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 |
| New York Jets | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1996 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 1997 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | 0 |
| 1998 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 |
| San Diego Chargers | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 2000 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 2001 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
| 2002 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 |
| 2003 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 25.0% | 0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1976 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 1977 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 14.3% | 0 |
| 1978 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
| 1979 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | 1 |
| Houston Oilers | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1972 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 7.1% | 0 |
| 1973 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 7.1% | 0 |
| 1974 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 |
| 1975 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 71.4% | 0 |
| 1976 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 35.7% | 0 |
| 1982 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 11.1% | 0 |
| 1983 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 0 |
| 1984 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 18.8% | 0 |
| 1985 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
Here are a few observations...
- All this data is from 1970 through 2007.
- Only 2 franchises have had more than 1 season with 1 (or fewer) wins: Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans
- The Houston Oilers are the only team with back-to-back 1 win seasons.
- Why does the AFC East (including former teams) suck? Every team in the current format of the division has a 1-win season and former division foe Indianapolis has 2.
- The worst team record-wise is clearly the 1976 Buccaneers. 14 games, 0 wins. The only other winless team since 1970 are the 1982 Colts...and they only played 9 games, managing to tie 1. Damn the strike!
| Win % Averages | ||
| Rebuilding Year #1 | Rebuilding Year #2 | Rebuilding Year #3 |
| 34.6% | 46.6% | 48.3% |
| Playoff Appearances | ||
| Rebuilding Year #1 | Rebuilding Year #2 | Rebuilding Year #3 |
| 0 | 3 | 3 |
So if your team finished a season with 1 (or 0) wins, the following year usually results in approximately 5 or 6 wins (based on a 16 game slate). Not too bad. Usually your team will be at 7 wins after the second season, and approximately 8 after the third. However, no teams have ever made the playoffs the year after winning 1 or fewer games and only 3 of the 13 made the playoffs in year 2 or 3.
The best rebuilding example was the Cowboys. If every team could do it the league would experience even more turnover. The Cowboys went from worst team in the league in 1989 to Super Bowl champs following the 1991 and 1992 season. Worst to first in 2 years!
I frequent many Dolphins message boards and their is plenty of optimism out there. Probably too much but that is what fans typically do. Some fans honestly believe the Dolphins can finish 8-8 in '08. Possible? Sure! The '92 Colts and '97 Jets went from 1-15 to 9-7 and the '74 Oilers went from 1-13 to 7-7. It isn't out of the realm of possibility.
It is interesting to note that Bill Parcells is the man responsible for resurrecting the Jets in 1997. Now he isn't the coach in Miami but he is definitely molding the team with GM Jeff Ireland. Parcells has become somewhat of a rebuilding legend. Here is what he has done. The first year listed is the year BEFORE Parcells took over. The next 3 years are the 3-year Rebuilding seasons.
| New York Giants | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1982 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 44.4% | 0 |
| 1983 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 18.8% | 0 |
| 1984 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | 1 |
| 1985 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | 1 |
| New England Patriots | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1992 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 12.5% | 0 |
| 1993 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
| 1994 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 1995 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 37.5% | 0 |
| New York Jets | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 1996 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 6.3% | 0 |
| 1997 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | 0 |
| 1998 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 0 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Wins | Losses | Ties | Win % | Playoffs |
| 2002 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 31.3% | 0 |
| 2003 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 2004 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 37.5% | 0 |
| 2005 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% | 0 |
The Parcells rebuilding plan is actually erratic. Only his Giants got better each year, culminating with a Super Bowl in Season 4 of the Tuna Era. He took the Patriots to the Super Bowl in season 2, the Jets to the AFC Championship in Season 2, and the Cowboys to the playoffs in Season 1. However, after a successful year the next season was rather average for each team. None of those three improved. While I believe Parcells is a great football mind, I expect the biggest improvement in Year 1 and not much after that, which is actually to be expected. No one in Miami believe he will stick around for more than 3 seasons. Hopefully someone will be brought in after him that takes them the next step. Parcells can get Miami to slightly above .500, but expecting more than 1 playoff berth in the next 3 years is a bit unreasonable. I expect Miami to improve like the statistics say: 6-10 in 2008, 8-8 in 2009, 9-7 in 2010 with Parcells stepping down. Parcells builds the foundation; it's up to the next guy to get the extra yards.
Monday, July 7, 2008
An Open Letter to Brett Favre
Click on the image below to read a great letter to Brett Favre about his possible comeback and how he would (read should) be treated if he were to return...
That is a comment from this article on Pro Football Talk. I couldn't have said it much better myself. TboneXXL is spot on. And the Star Wars reference is nice, too.
That is a comment from this article on Pro Football Talk. I couldn't have said it much better myself. TboneXXL is spot on. And the Star Wars reference is nice, too.
Delusional "Packers" Fan
Oh. My. God.
Misspell starting QB's name? Check. Want your former QB to play for a rival? Check. Hate the man largely responsible for returning your team to respectability? Check. Follow one overrated player over an entire team? Check.
Give me a break.
Friday, July 4, 2008
Happy Independence Day!
"Celebrate the independence of your nation by blowing up a small part of it." --The Simpsons
Hope everyone enjoys the holiday with good, old-fashioned American sports, food, and explosives! Life doesn't get to much better than watching baseball on the 4th with a burger and/or hot dog in your hand. Have a great day everyone!!!
Hope everyone enjoys the holiday with good, old-fashioned American sports, food, and explosives! Life doesn't get to much better than watching baseball on the 4th with a burger and/or hot dog in your hand. Have a great day everyone!!!Thursday, July 3, 2008
Still Think Favre Is Above a Team?
Brett Favre is selfish. Always has been, always will be. The cheeseheads in Wisconsin don't like to admit (and neither do some blind sports fans that praise and worship the dry dirt he walks on) but it is undeniably true. His actions show it.
He always claimed he was about the team. What he really meant what was best for him was undeniably the best thing for the team. He wanted to win another title. That's his claim for staying and for stalling the Packers front office for the past 3 or 4 offseasons. However, the year after 'leading' the Packers to the NFC Championship game the man up and quits? Oh I'm sorry, he 'retired'. Is there any doubt that Favre came back solely for the personal titles he gained through the 2007 season? Nope. Why leave a 13-3 team when you claim you only ever want to win? Did winning for the first time in 3 years take that much out of him? The Packers are a young force in Green Bay; they could be fielding their best team since the mid-90's this season (minus the QB spot, where Aaron Rodgers is still relatively unproven). And yet Favre 'retires'? Give me a break.
Of course I talked about Mr. Favre before (twice, actually). But every time his name is brought up it makes me cringe. Having him as a role model is an awful things for kids. Sure if they only yearn to have his physical skills and tools then fine, yeah, he's a good 'role model'. But I though role models were supposed to do the right things in their personal life and conduct themselves with utmost class? That is not Brett Favre. His 'me before the team' mentality is utterly ridiculous.
With the talk of a comeback again (which seems to happen every two weeks) the real Brett Favre is revealed, despite his continual denial. It is rumored that Favre has contacted the Packers about returning and they basically said "Thanks, but no thanks, unless Rodgers gets injured". As they should have! They have been preparing for 3+ months now with Aaron Rodgers as the starter; not Brett Favre. It's over for you in Green Bay, Brett. The team has closure; get yours. The only reason Green bay should allow you back is to play if Rodgers is injured. That's it. And if you truly have an 'itch' to play then force the Packers hands; they'll release you and hopefully the unwise sports fans out there won't blame the team for doing the right thing. You may be one of the Top 15 QB's of All-Time. But what you have done these last couple of years has really tarnished your legacy in the eyes of many people. If you force the Packers to release you because you want to play and they won't let you come back, I hope you're booed everywhere you go. It's what you deserve. This whole mess is your fault, Brett Favre. And the country is sick of it. Proof is in the pudding.
He always claimed he was about the team. What he really meant what was best for him was undeniably the best thing for the team. He wanted to win another title. That's his claim for staying and for stalling the Packers front office for the past 3 or 4 offseasons. However, the year after 'leading' the Packers to the NFC Championship game the man up and quits? Oh I'm sorry, he 'retired'. Is there any doubt that Favre came back solely for the personal titles he gained through the 2007 season? Nope. Why leave a 13-3 team when you claim you only ever want to win? Did winning for the first time in 3 years take that much out of him? The Packers are a young force in Green Bay; they could be fielding their best team since the mid-90's this season (minus the QB spot, where Aaron Rodgers is still relatively unproven). And yet Favre 'retires'? Give me a break.
Of course I talked about Mr. Favre before (twice, actually). But every time his name is brought up it makes me cringe. Having him as a role model is an awful things for kids. Sure if they only yearn to have his physical skills and tools then fine, yeah, he's a good 'role model'. But I though role models were supposed to do the right things in their personal life and conduct themselves with utmost class? That is not Brett Favre. His 'me before the team' mentality is utterly ridiculous.
With the talk of a comeback again (which seems to happen every two weeks) the real Brett Favre is revealed, despite his continual denial. It is rumored that Favre has contacted the Packers about returning and they basically said "Thanks, but no thanks, unless Rodgers gets injured". As they should have! They have been preparing for 3+ months now with Aaron Rodgers as the starter; not Brett Favre. It's over for you in Green Bay, Brett. The team has closure; get yours. The only reason Green bay should allow you back is to play if Rodgers is injured. That's it. And if you truly have an 'itch' to play then force the Packers hands; they'll release you and hopefully the unwise sports fans out there won't blame the team for doing the right thing. You may be one of the Top 15 QB's of All-Time. But what you have done these last couple of years has really tarnished your legacy in the eyes of many people. If you force the Packers to release you because you want to play and they won't let you come back, I hope you're booed everywhere you go. It's what you deserve. This whole mess is your fault, Brett Favre. And the country is sick of it. Proof is in the pudding.
Football fans around the country (and world) think Brett Favre should not come back.