One Win Wonders

The Miami Dolphins (my team of choice) finished their worst season in franchise history last year at an abysmal 1-15. Their only win came in OT after Baltimore Ravens kicker Matt Stover failed to capitalize on 2 FGs that would have ended the game (one at the end of regulation and the other in OT). However, with training camp less than 3 weeks away that season is in the past and hope springs eternal for not only Miami but the 30 other clubs that failed to capture the elusive Lombardi trophy.

A team that manages to win only 1 game is in full rebuilding mode, a term that makes veteran players cringe. What are the chances that the Dolphins improve after the disastrous 2007-2008 season? Can they make the playoffs? As usual, I resort to the numbers. I went back through franchise records of all 32 teams to find the epitome of suck: a season in which a team won 1 (or fewer) games. After grabbing those years I looked at the following 3 seasons to see what kind of improvement they made. Finally, how many of those teams manage to make the playoffs during those three years of rebuilding. This little analysis can also bring to light the ghosts of history and demonstrate how awful some professional teams have been.

Buffalo Bills	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1971	1	13	0	7.1%	0
1972	4	9	1	28.6%	0
1973	9	5	0	64.3%	0
1974	9	5	0	64.3%	1
Carolina Panthers	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
2001	1	15	0	6.3%	0
2002	7	9	0	43.8%	0
2003	11	5	0	68.8%	1
2004	7	9	0	43.8%	0
Dallas Cowboys	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1989	1	15	0	6.3%	0
1990	7	9	0	43.8%	0
1991	11	5	0	68.8%	1
1992	13	3	0	81.3%	1
Indianapolis Colts	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1982	0	8	1	0.0%	0
1983	7	9	0	43.8%	0
1984	4	12	0	25.0%	0
1985	5	11	0	31.3%	0
1991	1	15	0	6.3%	0
1992	9	7	0	56.3%	0
1993	4	12	0	25.0%	0
1994	8	8	0	50.0%	0
New England Patriots	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1990	1	15	0	6.3%	0
1991	6	10	0	37.5%	0
1992	2	14	0	12.5%	0
1993	5	11	0	31.3%	0
New Orleans Saints	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1980	1	15	0	6.3%	0
1981	4	12	0	25.0%	0
1982	4	5	0	44.4%	0
1983	8	8	0	50.0%	0
New York Jets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1996	1	15	0	6.3%	0
1997	9	7	0	56.3%	0
1998	12	4	0	75.0%	1
1999	8	8	0	50.0%	0
San Diego Chargers	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
2000	1	15	0	6.3%	0
2001	5	11	0	31.3%	0
2002	8	8	0	50.0%	0
2003	4	12	0	25.0%	0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1976	0	14	0	0.0%	0
1977	2	12	0	14.3%	0
1978	5	11	0	31.3%	0
1979	10	6	0	62.5%	1
Houston Oilers	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1972	1	13	0	7.1%	0
1973	1	13	0	7.1%	0
1974	7	7	0	50.0%	0
1975	10	4	0	71.4%	0
1976	5	9	0	35.7%	0
1982	1	8	0	11.1%	0
1983	2	14	0	12.5%	0
1984	3	13	0	18.8%	0
1985	5	11	0	31.3%	0

Here are a few observations...

• All this data is from 1970 through 2007.
  
• Only 2 franchises have had more than 1 season with 1 (or fewer) wins: Baltimore/Indianapolis Colts and Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans
• The Houston Oilers are the only team with back-to-back 1 win seasons.
• Why does the AFC East (including former teams) suck? Every team in the current format of the division has a 1-win season and former division foe Indianapolis has 2.
• The worst team record-wise is clearly the 1976 Buccaneers. 14 games, 0 wins. The only other winless team since 1970 are the 1982 Colts...and they only played 9 games, managing to tie 1. Damn the strike!

Win % Averages
Rebuilding Year #1	Rebuilding Year #2	Rebuilding Year #3
34.6%	46.6%	48.3%
Playoff Appearances
Rebuilding Year #1	Rebuilding Year #2	Rebuilding Year #3
0	3	3

So if your team finished a season with 1 (or 0) wins, the following year usually results in approximately 5 or 6 wins (based on a 16 game slate). Not too bad. Usually your team will be at 7 wins after the second season, and approximately 8 after the third. However, no teams have ever made the playoffs the year after winning 1 or fewer games and only 3 of the 13 made the playoffs in year 2 or 3.

The best rebuilding example was the Cowboys. If every team could do it the league would experience even more turnover. The Cowboys went from worst team in the league in 1989 to Super Bowl champs following the 1991 and 1992 season. Worst to first in 2 years!

I frequent many Dolphins message boards and their is plenty of optimism out there. Probably too much but that is what fans typically do. Some fans honestly believe the Dolphins can finish 8-8 in '08. Possible? Sure! The '92 Colts and '97 Jets went from 1-15 to 9-7 and the '74 Oilers went from 1-13 to 7-7. It isn't out of the realm of possibility.

It is interesting to note that Bill Parcells is the man responsible for resurrecting the Jets in 1997. Now he isn't the coach in Miami but he is definitely molding the team with GM Jeff Ireland. Parcells has become somewhat of a rebuilding legend. Here is what he has done. The first year listed is the year BEFORE Parcells took over. The next 3 years are the 3-year Rebuilding seasons.

New York Giants	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1982	4	5	0	44.4%	0
1983	3	12	1	18.8%	0
1984	9	7	0	56.3%	1
1985	10	6	0	62.5%	1
New England Patriots	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1992	2	14	0	12.5%	0
1993	5	11	0	31.3%	0
1994	10	6	0	62.5%	1
1995	6	10	0	37.5%	0
New York Jets	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
1996	1	15	0	6.3%	0
1997	9	7	0	56.3%	0
1998	12	4	0	75.0%	1
1999	8	8	0	50.0%	0
Dallas Cowboys	Wins	Losses	Ties	Win %	Playoffs
2002	5	11	0	31.3%	0
2003	10	6	0	62.5%	1
2004	6	10	0	37.5%	0
2005	9	7	0	56.3%	0

The Parcells rebuilding plan is actually erratic. Only his Giants got better each year, culminating with a Super Bowl in Season 4 of the Tuna Era. He took the Patriots to the Super Bowl in season 2, the Jets to the AFC Championship in Season 2, and the Cowboys to the playoffs in Season 1. However, after a successful year the next season was rather average for each team. None of those three improved. While I believe Parcells is a great football mind, I expect the biggest improvement in Year 1 and not much after that, which is actually to be expected. No one in Miami believe he will stick around for more than 3 seasons. Hopefully someone will be brought in after him that takes them the next step. Parcells can get Miami to slightly above .500, but expecting more than 1 playoff berth in the next 3 years is a bit unreasonable. I expect Miami to improve like the statistics say: 6-10 in 2008, 8-8 in 2009, 9-7 in 2010 with Parcells stepping down. Parcells builds the foundation; it's up to the next guy to get the extra yards.