Madden 09 1-season Simulation Results

I am simulating the current NFL season using Madden 09 as a simulation engine, as I did for the 2008-2009 NCAA Football season (1-season results, 10-simulation average results). ESPN Video Games does this on a weekly basis for marquee college games and every NFL game. I am taking it a step farther and doing this all at one time, at an attempt to predict what will happen this season.

I have waited until after week 1 to get the latest Madden 09 roster update, released today. Here are the guidelines so you can understand how this data was obtained:

• Rosters - I used the latest roster update available from EA (released on 9/12/2008). This includes a few ratings bumps and players transferred to IR, most notably Tom Brady. I only tweaked a few parts of the rosters. I added a few free agents to their respective teams that EA overlooked (i.e. Eddie Kennison to the Rams, Chris Simms to the Titans). This should have little - if any - impact on the results but it is a more realistic interpretation of the current rosters. NO PLAYERS ATTRIBUTES WERE CHANGED.
• Injuries - Since this is a simulation (as in there are no games played by a human), I turned off the sim. injuries when starting the franchise. Therefore no one gets injured as the season plays out. I am leaving the preexisting injuries on so, like I said, no Tom Brady for New England.
• Simulation Start - Each sim. will begin in week 1. The franchise is saved after the preseason so that any players signed by the teams remains constant throughout each simulation. Teams did sign some available free agents though their impact is minor, if any.

OK so there are my guidelines. This post shows only a 1-season simulation. The 10-sim conglomerate will be coming in the next few days. So what does Madden 09 believe will happen during this NFL season? Take a look...

Team	Conference	Division	Wins	Losses
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	North	8	8
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	North	3	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	North	5	11
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	North	11	5
Houston Texans	AFC	South	9	7
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	South	12	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	South	12	4
Tennessee Titans	AFC	South	7	9
Buffalo Bills	AFC	East	9	7
Miami Dolphins	AFC	East	4	12
New England Patriots	AFC	East	6	10
New York Jets	AFC	East	8	8
Denver Broncos	AFC	West	4	12
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	West	9	7
Oakland Raiders	AFC	West	6	10
San Diego Chargers	AFC	West	10	6
Chicago Bears	NFC	North	8	8
Detroit Lions	NFC	North	6	10
Green Bay Packers	NFC	North	6	10
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	North	9	7
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	South	6	9
Carolina Panthers	NFC	South	10	6
New Orleans Saints	NFC	South	6	9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	South	12	4
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	East	7	9
New York Giants	NFC	East	5	11
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	East	13	3
Washington Redskins	NFC	East	9	7
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	West	7	9
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	West	11	5
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	West	7	9
St. Louis Rams	NFC	West	10	6

Not too ridiculous. The 49ers winning the West is probably the only thing you can definitely say won't happen. Dallas looked like a team that is much better than 7-9. Denver is better than 4-12, too. The Falcons and Saints tied a game that's why the are both 6-9, they were actually 6-9-1. OK so who made it to Super Bowl XLIII?

We have the first instance of a team playing a Super Bowl in front of a home crowd. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made it to the 43rd Super Bowl, played at Raymond James Stadium, their very own stadium. The Jacksonville Jaguars made it an all-Florida matchup. And the home team emerged victorious. The Buccaneers dismissed the Jaguars in a tight game, 35-27. Jeff Garcia was named MVP.

So there is a quick 1-season simulation. I'll have much more following the completion of 10-simulations. Stay tuned!