NCAA Football 09 1-season Simulation Results

As promised way back in June, here is the first of a series of video game simulations to help guess how the coming football seasons will play out. Up first is my 1-season NCAA 09 simulation. Here are my ground rules:

• Rosters - Except for player names, the rosters remain unedited (i.e. - no changes to positions and/or ratings).
  
• Redshirts - You are only able to redshirt players from the team you select. I select Penn State for every sim. so a few of the freshman and injured LB Sean Lee do get redshirted and miss the year. All other teams forego redshirts unless the computer applies them.
  
• Injuries/Suspensions - They happen, get use to it. It isn't my fault if Tim Tebow gets injured and your Florida Gators limp to a 4-8 finish. Also, any injuries that have happened during spring practice or training camp are not reflected here. That helps you out in the end, Florida. The same goes for suspensions (luck you, Miami). I can't suspend players so they are eligible for all games.
• Schedules - The schedules set by EA are used, no changes.
• Gameplay - Not a single game is played by a human. This entire simulation is done by EA computer engine. Your gripe is with them, not me, if your team sucks during this.

I think that covers the basics. First off, we need to know how the teams were initially ranked. Here is EA's list of their Top 25:

Rank	Preseason
1	Georgia
2	Oklahoma
3	Ohio State
4	USC
5	Florida
6	LSU
7	Missouri
8	West Virginia
9	Wisconsin
10	Texas
11	Clemson
12	Texas Tech
13	Penn State
14	Arizona State
15	Kansas
16	Auburn
17	Virginia Tech
18	Illinois
19	Tennessee
20	BYU
21	South Carolina
22	Alabama
23	Oregon
24	Cincinnati
25	Wake Forest

This poll will be used in all future simulations as well. So that is where we started. Where do we win after a 1-season sim.? Let's take a look...

Sim 1
Rank	Final Coaches	Wins	Losses
1	USC	12	1
2	Florida State	12	1
3	Missouri	13	1
4	Ohio State	11	2
5	Clemson	12	2
6	West Virginia	11	2
7	Michigan	12	1
8	South Carolina	12	2
9	Tennessee	11	2
10	Florida	11	2
11	Texas Tech	10	3
12	Georgia	10	3
13	Wisconsin	10	3
14	Kansas State	10	3
15	Washington	10	3
16	Notre Dame	10	3
17	Oregon	10	3
18	LSU	9	4
19	Miami	8	5
20	Arizona State	9	4
21	Auburn	9	4
22	Cincinnati	9	4
23	Bowling Green	11	3
24	BYU	10	3
25	Northern Illinois	9	4

Quite the turnover. Preseason favorite Georgia finishes 12th. Unranked Florida State finishes 2nd. Originally unranked, like Florida State, Michigan comes in at #7. That's quite the first season under a new head coach: 12-1, a Big Ten Championship, and a Rose Bowl victory. And yet they still finish behind Ohio State (preseason #3, final #4). Who were the surprise teams, other than Florida State (originally 29th) and Michigan (originally 27th)? How about Bowling Green. Their preseason rank was 85 and they finished at 23, with an 11-3 record. Or Kansas State. They checked in intially at 51 but climbed to 14th and finished 10-3. Perhaps the most underrated team was Northern Illinois. They finished the season at 25 despite starting ranked 105th! Oh yeah and then there was Notre Dame. Started 53rd, ended 16th. Yawn. Next!

While some teams surprise, others disappoint. Here's a list of the underachievers (be aware, Penn Staters, it ain't pretty):

• Georgia - Everyone's preseason favorite struggled to a 10-3 record and a 12th place finish in the polls.
• Illinois - The game, like the media and many fans, is vastly overrating the Illini. They started 18th and finished out of the Top 25. Expect that to happen in real life, too.
• Kansas - Wow I can't believe they struggled. Kidding. They had a wonderful season last year but that won't carry over. Started 15th and ended on the outside looking in.
• LSU - Last year's National Champs struggled in the competitive SEC. From 6th to 18th and a 9-4 record.
• Oklahoma - According to the video game, this team could be vastly overrated. In this 1-season simulation Oklahoma started 2nd and dropped out of the Top 25. They finished a pedestrian 8-5. Uh oh! Is this a sign of things to come? Not likely.
• Texas - Another Big 12 team falls. Originally ranked #10, they fell out of the Top 25 with a 9-5 mark on the season. Not good, boys. Texas, in my opinion, is overrated this season. But they should still be in the Top 25.
• Virginia Tech - Were ranked #17 initially but didn't breach the Top 25 in the end. They were close, like Texas. 9-5 on the season.
• Penn State - Last and certainly least. Ready for this, guys? The 1-season simulation had the Nittany Lions ranked 13th and then plummet. They did salvage a winning record: 7-6. Ew. They even lost their bowl game, a second stright visit to the Alamo. Against Texas A&M. Again. Outcome: 37-24 Aggies. If the season plays out like this, Paterno will be gone.

Here are some other important things you may want to know. First the Heisman Trophy. The preseason favorites, according to EA, were:

Preseason Watch List

Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State

Percy Harvin, WR, Florida

Chase Daniel, QB, Missouri

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

And here are the final results:

Final Results - Sim 1	Points
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri	1625
Mark Sanchez, QB, USC	1359
Joe Ganz, QB, Nebraska	674
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas	450
Chris Wells, RB, Ohio State	401

A bit of a shocker. Not that Maclin couldn't have a Heisman-type year, but look at some of the other names on the list. Sanchez? Ganz? Really? OK. Wells, Tebow, and Georgia's Knowshon Moreno are mentioned by everyone and yet the game results only put Wells in the final. And he didn't do too well.

Here are the "major" bowl game matchups and results:

National Championship
USC	Missouri
41	20
Rose Bowl
Michigan	Washington
38	34
Orange Bowl
Clemson	West Virginia
42	20
Sugar Bowl
South Carolina	Ohio State
7	42
Fiesta Bowl
Florida State	Texas Tech
26	7

Finally, for you Penn State fans out there, here is a game-by-game overview of this disastrous season...

Penn State	Sim 1	Result
vs Coastal Carolina	35-7	W
vs Oregon State	27-14	W
at Syracuse	10-13	L
Temple	60-7	W
Illinois	35-31	W
at Purdue	17-14	W
at Wisconsin	20-27 OT	L
Michigan	30-51	L
at Ohio State	13-30	L
BYE	-----	-----
at Iowa	39-16	W
Indiana	31-35	L
Michigan State	41-30	W
Bowl Game	Alamo	Result
vs Texas A&M	24-37	L
Final Record	Wins	Losses
	7	6

Yep. A loss to Syracuse. A shellacking by Michigan (10 in a row). And a loss, at home, to lowly Indiana (who actually finished the season at 9-4. Hopefully little of this comes true for PSU.

So there you have it. That is the official ruling on how the season will play out, according to a 1-season simulation using EA Sports NCAA Football 09. Obviously there are a lot of flaws (Michigan, really?) to this method. That is why I am conducting a 10-season simulation. I will sim. the 2008 season 10 times and do some averages for the polls, each team, and the Heisman. Penn State will have a litte more info. So stay tuned for that in the coming week!