Over the past few days I have posted the results from my NCAA Football 09 simulations. On Wednesday, a 1-season simulation was posted. The results were not the best for Penn State. A 7-6 record, including an Alamo Bowl game loss to Texas A&M. Not the best by a long shot. Of course we know that doing one simulation using theoretical players, play-calling, injuries, etc. can't tell us much. A larger data set could. Therefore I simulated the 2008 college football season 10 times using EA Sports NCAA Football 09. Today's post focuses solely on Penn State and the results for them during the 10 simulations. How should Penn State fair this season according to the video game results? The answer seems to be in line with what many "experts" and Nittany Lion fans believe.
Below is the final Top 25 after aggregating the 10 simulation results together. Overall the simulation seems to Penn State finishing ranked 23rd in the nation at the conclusion of the 2008-2009 college football season. This seems reasonable. A ranking in that vicinity would most likely mean the team wins 9 games. There are two scenarios as to how PSU could finish there: go 8-4 and win their bowl game or go 9-3 and lose their bowl game. A 9-4 record usually slots a team between spots 16-25.
Final Rank | Team |
1 | Florida |
2 | Ohio State |
3 | Wisconsin |
4 | USC |
5 | Missouri |
6 | West Virginia |
7 | Oklahoma |
8 | Clemson |
9 | Arizona State |
10 | Tennessee |
11 | Florida State |
12 | Texas |
13 | Texas Tech |
14 | BYU |
15 | LSU |
16 | Boise State |
17 | Texas A&M |
18 | Georgia |
19 | South Carolina |
20 | Virginia Tech |
21 | Auburn |
22 | Nebraska |
23 | Penn State |
24 | Pittsburgh |
25 | UCF |
In order to evaluate the teams I came up with a few different variables. The data set includes 10-sim. Average wins, losses, and rank, change in rank, adjusted rank, and the number a team appears in the Top 25, 10, 5, as well as any National Championships won. The following text is a copy of the explanation from my post yesterday. How did I determine average rank and if a team was over- or underrated? Glad you asked. You probably figured out how I got the average wins/losses per team. I, um, averaged their wins/losses over the 10 simulations. Easy enough. The number of appearances in the Top 25, 10, and 5 were simply summed across the 10 simulations as well. The other things took a little creativity.
The average rank is what it is. I took an average of every team's final ranking over the 10 sims. Unfortunately NCAA 09 does not rank any team past 25 at the end of the season (though they do rank them before it). So in order to take a non-ranked season into account I had to, crudely, apply a number to each team. For simplicity I based it on wins (note: I kept the simulations Top 25; those teams' ranks were not altered). Any team that receives an NR (not ranked) needed a value. I gave any team with 11 or 10 wins not in the Top 25 an arbitrary value of 30. Common sense will say that, ultimately, these teams just missed the Top 25 cut and would have been (most likely) ranked between 26 and 35. A rank of 30 fits in there nicely. This type of ranking percolated all the way down to teams finishing with 0 wins (I kept track of 83 of the teams in the game). A team outside of the Top 25 with 9 wins received a rank of 40. Teams with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 wins garnered a 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, respectively. The few teams that had awful seasons (2 wins or less) were ranked 110. I know that isn't an ideal way to rank teams out of the Top 25. But without the game doing it, how else can I do it? I think this way is fair.
The average ranks were used to create the adjusted rank. This is simply sorting the average ranks from lowest to highest. The lowest average rank (Florida, 6) was assigned adjusted rank #1 and the lowest average rank (Vanderbilt, 104) given #83. The lower part of the ranked teams is a bit useless since I am missing 37 teams in the study. However it is doubtful that any of those missing teams would ever crack the Top 50 (I used EAs preseason Top 75 and then a few sparse extras that turned up in any of the 10 simulations, that's how I got to 83 teams).
OK all that is left is how you determine how is over- and underrated. To do this I simply took a team's adjusted rank (i.e. Florida at #1) and subtracted it from EAs preseason rank (Florida is 5). In this case Florida would boast a -4. Any number below 0 indicates an underrated team. The larger the number, the more underrated. Overrated is simply the opposite. Georgia was EAs preseason #1. In this study their adjusted rank was 18. That is a +17. That's bad. The larger the positive number, the more overrated they were in the study.
So there ya go. That's how I did it. I feel like I am writing a scientific paper. Enough with methods. On to more Penn State results (resume new content)!
Here are the average wins/losses and rank for the final Top 25...
10-sim Average | |||
Team | Wins | Losses | Rank |
Florida | 12 | 2 | 6 |
Ohio State | 11 | 2 | 7 |
Wisconsin | 11 | 2 | 7 |
USC | 11 | 2 | 8 |
Missouri | 12 | 2 | 9 |
West Virginia | 12 | 1 | 9 |
Oklahoma | 12 | 2 | 9 |
Clemson | 12 | 2 | 11 |
Arizona State | 11 | 3 | 15 |
Tennessee | 10 | 3 | 15 |
Florida State | 10 | 3 | 20 |
Texas | 10 | 3 | 21 |
Texas Tech | 10 | 3 | 22 |
BYU | 10 | 3 | 26 |
LSU | 9 | 4 | 27 |
Boise State | 10 | 3 | 27 |
Texas A&M | 10 | 4 | 27 |
Georgia | 9 | 4 | 28 |
South Carolina | 9 | 4 | 31 |
Virginia Tech | 9 | 4 | 32 |
Auburn | 9 | 4 | 34 |
Nebraska | 9 | 4 | 34 |
Penn State | 9 | 4 | 36 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 4 | 39 |
UCF | 9 | 4 | 40 |
So there Penn State is, at an average rank of 36th in the nation which is adjusted to 23rd. Not too bad I guess. Except EA's ratings started Penn State at 13th. Eep. Penn State was/is overrated according to the game. The chart below is an excerpt from the overrated chart created from the 10 simulations. Each of these teams was deemed as overrated according to their average starting rank and end rank.
Team | Avg. Wins | Avg. Losses | Avg. Rank | Δ Rank | Adj. Rank |
Oregon State | 5 | 7 | 82 | 39 | 75 |
Boston College | 6 | 7 | 71 | 28 | 65 |
Iowa | 4 | 8 | 91 | 22 | 81 |
Georgia | 9 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 18 |
Illinois | 7 | 6 | 51 | 15 | 33 |
Minnesota | 5 | 8 | 83 | 12 | 76 |
Penn State | 9 | 4 | 36 | 10 | 23 |
LSU | 9 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 15 |
Oklahoma | 12 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
Auburn | 9 | 4 | 34 | 5 | 21 |
For Penn State to not be considered overrated they'd have to finish no lower than 17th, if we give the the underrated/overrated change in rank a leeway of +/- 4. Penn State would have to win 10 games to meet exopectations this season. That is certainly attainable. I alluded to this at the beginning with their final rank, but how many wins did PSU average over the 10 simulations?
The chart below shows 10-sim. Average wins, losses, and rank, as well as their change in rank and adjusted final rank. Teams included are Penn State, the rest of the Big Ten, some of this years top ranked teams, and any teams that may be of interest to Penn State fans (Notre Dame, Oregon State, etc.).
10-sim Avg. |
| ||||
Team | Ws | Ls | Rank | Δ Rank | Adj. Rank |
Alabama | 7 | 6 | 48 | 7 | 29 |
Auburn | 9 | 4 | 34 | 5 | 21 |
Boston College | 6 | 7 | 71 | 28 | 65 |
Florida | 12 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 1 |
Florida State | 10 | 3 | 20 | -18 | 11 |
Georgia | 9 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 18 |
Illinois | 7 | 6 | 51 | 15 | 33 |
Indiana | 7 | 6 | 60 | -15 | 50 |
Iowa | 4 | 8 | 91 | 22 | 81 |
LSU | 9 | 4 | 27 | 9 | 15 |
Michigan | 8 | 5 | 49 | 3 | 30 |
Michigan State | 8 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 34 |
Minnesota | 5 | 8 | 83 | 12 | 76 |
Missouri | 12 | 2 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
Northwestern | 6 | 7 | 73 | -6 | 67 |
Notre Dame | 7 | 5 | 55 | -11 | 42 |
Ohio State | 11 | 2 | 7 | -1 | 2 |
Oklahoma | 12 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
Oregon State | 5 | 7 | 82 | 39 | 75 |
Penn State | 9 | 4 | 36 | 10 | 23 |
Pittsburgh | 9 | 4 | 39 | -14 | 24 |
Purdue | 7 | 5 | 55 | -1 | 43 |
Rutgers | 8 | 5 | 52 | -18 | 37 |
Texas | 10 | 3 | 21 | 2 | 12 |
USC | 11 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 4 |
West Virginia | 12 | 1 | 9 | -2 | 6 |
Wisconsin | 11 | 2 | 7 | -6 | 3 |
So Penn State averaged 9 wins and 4 losses as predicted. They are expected to finish 23rd, 1 spot ahead of state rival Pittsburgh (who was underrated). A record of 9-4 would place Penn State 3rd in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State (11-2, ranked 2nd) and Wisconsin (11-2, ranked 3rd). With the distance between these three teams leads me to this conclusion: Ohio State wins the Big Ten and then the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin gets an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl and wins it, Penn State heads to the Capital One bowl and loses. I have Penn State losing the Bowl Game based on the fact that the 3rd place team in the Big Ten would not be ranked so low prior to the bowl, especially with a record of 9-3. Penn State most likely would be ranked 14th-17th prior to the game. A loss drops them to 9-4 and a 23rd rank. The chart below is the second set of data from the analysis. This chart includes the number of teams a team made the Top 25, 10, 5, and won National Championships. Again it only includes Penn State, the rest of the Big Ten, some of this years top ranked teams, and any teams that may be of interest to Penn State fans.
Team | Top 25 | Top 10 | Top 5 | National Champs. |
Alabama | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Auburn | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Boston College | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Florida | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
Florida State | 8 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Georgia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Illinois | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Indiana | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Iowa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
LSU | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Michigan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Michigan State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Minnesota | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Missouri | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
Northwestern | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Notre Dame | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ohio State | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
Oklahoma | 9 | 7 | 6 | 0 |
Oregon State | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Penn State | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Pittsburgh | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Purdue | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rutgers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Texas | 7 | 6 | 2 | 0 |
USC | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 |
West Virginia | 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
Wisconsin | 10 | 8 | 5 | 0 |
I was too lazy to accumulate and compile every Bowl game result for every team but I did summarize the BCS games: National Championship, Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta. Here is a look at them, simulation by simulation…
Sim 1 | Sim 2 | |||
BCS National Championship | BCS National Championship | |||
USC | Missouri | Clemson | Missouri | |
41 | 20 | 31 | 37 | |
Rose Bowl | Rose Bowl | |||
Michigan | Washington | Penn State | USC | |
38 | 34 | 14 | 21 | |
Orange Bowl | Orange Bowl | |||
Clemson | West Virginia | Oklahoma | West Virginia | |
42 | 20 | 35 | 42 | |
Sugar Bowl | Sugar Bowl | |||
South Carolina | Ohio State | LSU | Boise State | |
7 | 42 | 41 | 34 | |
Fiesta Bowl | Fiesta Bowl | |||
Florida State | Texas Tech | Wisconsin | Florida | |
26 | 7 | 27 | 31 |
Sim 3 | Sim 4 | |||
BCS National Championship | BCS National Championship | |||
West Virginia | Tennessee | Florida | West Virginia | |
14 | 40 | 20 | 31 | |
Rose Bowl | Rose Bowl | |||
Ohio State | USC | Ohio State | USC | |
42 | 28 | 23 | 40 | |
Orange Bowl | Orange Bowl | |||
Clemson | Wisconsin | Florida State | Illinois | |
29 | 52 | 21 | 17 | |
Sugar Bowl | Sugar Bowl | |||
Hawai'i | LSU | Georgia | Arizona State | |
13 | 35 | 28 | 24 | |
Fiesta Bowl | Fiesta Bowl | |||
Oklahoma | Notre Dame | Texas A&M | BYU | |
24 | 17 | 49 | 27 |
Sim 5 | Sim 6 | |||
BCS National Championship | BCS National Championship | |||
Clemson | Oklahoma | Arizona State | Florida | |
48 | 34 | 13 | 55 | |
Rose Bowl | Rose Bowl | |||
Wisconsin | USC | Ohio State | San Diego State | |
24 | 14 | 13 | 17 | |
Orange Bowl | Orange Bowl | |||
Ohio State | West Virginia | Georgia Tech | West Virginia | |
24 | 34 | 24 | 21 | |
Sugar Bowl | Sugar Bowl | |||
Georgia | Oregon | Boise State | Wisconsin | |
45 | 28 | 33 | 37 | |
Fiesta Bowl | Fiesta Bowl | |||
Missouri | Florida State | Oklahoma | South Carolina | |
32 | 28 | 45 | 21 |
Sim 7 | Sim 8 | |||
BCS National Championship | BCS National Championship | |||
BYU | Clemson | Texas | Ohio State | |
38 | 45 | 14 | 45 | |
Rose Bowl | Rose Bowl | |||
Ohio State | Arizona State | Boise State | USC | |
35 | 0 | 14 | 21 | |
Orange Bowl | Orange Bowl | |||
Missouri | West Virginia | Florida State | Pittsburgh | |
59 | 21 | |||
Sugar Bowl | Sugar Bowl | |||
Florida | Wisconsin | Florida | Wisconsin | |
53 | 34 | 48 | 7 | |
Fiesta Bowl | Fiesta Bowl | |||
Oklahoma | Tennessee | Oklahoma | Tennessee | |
48 | 10 | 30 | 16 |
Sim 9 | Sim 10 | |||
BCS National Championship | BCS National Championship | |||
Florida | West Virginia | Wisconsin | Florida | |
31 | 22 | 30 | 44 | |
Rose Bowl | Rose Bowl | |||
Wisconsin | USC | Penn State | USC | |
42 | 16 | 16 | 42 | |
Orange Bowl | Orange Bowl | |||
Clemson | South Carolina | Miami | Pittsburgh | |
24 | 20 | 33 | 22 | |
Sugar Bowl | Sugar Bowl | |||
Texas | Northern Illinois | Oklahoma | LSU | |
42 | 14 | 21 | 31 | |
Fiesta Bowl | Fiesta Bowl | |||
Oklahoma | Ohio State | Missouri | Oregon | |
46 | 28 | 48 | 17 |
Hey, we made the Rose Bowl twice! Unfortunately they were both losses. At least the computer thinks there is a chance for a Big Ten Championship (10%) or highly successful season.
A lot of variance and not too many duplicates overall. There were a lot of different teams taking their game to the big bowls. Good for them. What are the chance of Arizona State, Northern Illinois, Michigan, Hawai'i, and Notre Dame doing that this year? Probably not too high. But, hey, as last year proved, there is a reason for the cliché anything can happen.
For Penn State I chronicled all 10 simulations (for better or worse). The results are below, including Bowl Games (if we made one)...
Penn State | Sim 1 | Result | Penn State | Sim 2 | Result |
vs Coastal Carolina | 35-7 | W | vs Coastal Carolina | 37-0 | W |
vs Oregon State | 27-14 | W | vs Oregon State | 48-21 | W |
at Syracuse | 10-13 | L | at Syracuse | 34-13 | W |
Temple | 60-7 | W | Temple | 37-10 | W |
Illinois | 35-31 | W | Illinois | 37-34 OT | W |
at Purdue | 17-14 | W | at Purdue | 52-21 | W |
at Wisconsin | 20-27 OT | L | at Wisconsin | 42-28 | W |
Michigan | 30-51 | L | Michigan | 31-14 | W |
at Ohio State | 13-30 | L | at Ohio State | 31-24 | W |
BYE | ----- | ----- | BYE | ----- | ----- |
at Iowa | 39-16 | W | at Iowa | 36-0 | W |
Indiana | 31-35 | L | Indiana | 34-23 | W |
Michigan State | 41-30 | W | Michigan State | 58-35 | W |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bowl Game | Alamo | Result | Bowl Game | Rose | Result |
vs Texas A&M | 24-37 | L | vs USC | 14-21 | L |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Final Record | Wins | Losses | Final Record | Wins | Losses |
| 7 | 6 |
| 12 | 1 |
Penn State | Sim 3 | Result | Penn State | Sim 4 | Result |
vs Coastal Carolina | 62-7 | W | vs Coastal Carolina | 62-6 | W |
vs Oregon State | 27-6 | W | vs Oregon State | 39-3 | W |
at Syracuse | 37-10 | W | at Syracuse | 41-16 | W |
Temple | 51-20 | W | Temple | 41-7 | W |
Illinois | 21-31 | L | Illinois | 17-21 | L |
at Purdue | 35-28 | W | at Purdue | 45-6 | W |
at Wisconsin | 20-27 | L | at Wisconsin | 38-34 | W |
Michigan | 41-14 | W | Michigan | 22-20 | W |
at Ohio State | 42-39 | W | at Ohio State | 17-35 | L |
BYE | ----- | ----- | BYE | ----- | ----- |
at Iowa | 38-13 | W | at Iowa | 48-6 | W |
Indiana | 33-35 | L | Indiana | 31-22 | W |
Michigan State | 17-30 | L | Michigan State | 26-27 | L |
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|
|
Bowl Game | Insight | Result | Bowl Game | Outback | Result |
vs Oklahoma State | 33-28 | W | vs Ole Miss | 29-21 | W |
|
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|
|
Final Record | Wins | Losses | Final Record | Wins | Losses |
| 9 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 |
Penn State | Sim 5 | Result | Penn State | Sim 6 | Result |
vs Coastal Carolina | 52-3 | W | vs Coastal Carolina | 56-10 | W |
vs Oregon State | 34-28 | W | vs Oregon State | 29-27 | W |
at Syracuse | 17-10 | W | at Syracuse | 34-17 | W |
Temple | 38-7 | W | Temple | 43-17 | W |
Illinois | 24-6 | W | Illinois | 38-16 | W |
at Purdue | 28-21 | W | at Purdue | 30-27 | W |
at Wisconsin | 7-35 | L | at Wisconsin | 35-45 | L |
Michigan | 24-28 | L | Michigan | 21-28 | L |
at Ohio State | 14-38 | L | at Ohio State | 24-34 | L |
BYE | ----- | ----- | BYE | ----- | ----- |
at Iowa | 48-17 | W | at Iowa | 54-7 | W |
Indiana | 41-10 | W | Indiana | 41-40 | W |
Michigan State | 38-12 | W | Michigan State | 27-17 | W |
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Bowl Game | Outback | Result | Bowl Game | Outback | Result |
vs Auburn | 31-34 | L | vs Ole Miss | 16-37 | L |
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|
|
Final Record | Wins | Losses | Final Record | Wins | Losses |
| 9 | 4 |
| 9 | 4 |
Penn State | Sim 7 | Result | Penn State | Sim 8 | Result |
vs Coastal Carolina | 52-6 | W | vs Coastal Carolina | 63-7 | W |
vs Oregon State | 31-17 | W | vs Oregon State | 17-10 | W |
at Syracuse | 43-14 | W | at Syracuse | 52-10 | W |
Temple | 21-9 | W | Temple | 49-13 | W |
Illinois | 41-17 | W | Illinois | 38-7 | W |
at Purdue | 28-44 | L | at Purdue | 25-31 | L |
at Wisconsin | 17-48 | L | at Wisconsin | 17-49 | L |
Michigan | 17-38 | L | Michigan | 14-24 | L |
at Ohio State | 17-49 | L | at Ohio State | 14-56 | L |
BYE | ----- | ----- | BYE | ----- | ----- |
at Iowa | 49-14 | W | at Iowa | 52-17 | W |
Indiana | 45-35 | W | Indiana | 45-7 | W |
Michigan State | 42-16 | W | Michigan State | 24-30 OT | L |
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|
Bowl Game | Outback | Result | Bowl Game | Liberty | Result |
vs South Carolina | 38-55 | L | vs UCF | 27-26 | W |
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|
|
Final Record | Wins | Losses | Final Record | Wins | Losses |
| 8 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 |
Penn State | Sim 9 | Result | Penn State | Sim 10 | Result |
vs Coastal Carolina | 37-10 | W | vs Coastal Carolina | 35-3 | W |
vs Oregon State | 28-15 | W | vs Oregon State | 61-14 | W |
at Syracuse | 28-7 | W | at Syracuse | 24-6 | W |
Temple | 21-24 OT | L | Temple | 24-3 | W |
Illinois | 41-20 | W | Illinois | 38-21 | W |
at Purdue | 19-21 | L | at Purdue | 31-13 | W |
at Wisconsin | 9-28 | L | at Wisconsin | 31-42 | L |
Michigan | 24-25 | L | Michigan | 24-6 | W |
at Ohio State | 14-31 | L | at Ohio State | 31-54 | L |
BYE | ----- | ----- | BYE | ----- | ----- |
at Iowa | 38-35 | W | at Iowa | 35-10 | W |
Indiana | 31-34 | L | Indiana | 27-26 | W |
Michigan State | 40-33 | W | Michigan State | 49-14 | W |
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Bowl Game | Insight | Result | Bowl Game | Rose | Result |
vs Arizona | 16-24 | L | vs USC | 16-42 | L |
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|
Final Record | Wins | Losses | Final Record | Wins | Losses |
| 6 | 7 |
| 10 | 3 |
Simulations 2 and 10 are the best. Number 2 resulted in a Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth and 10 took us there as well, but not Big Ten title. Sim. number 9 was dreadful. A losing record? What is this, 2004? Highly unlikely, though based on this there is a 10% chance. God, I hope not. You may be going through the simulations to see how fared against each team or what happened in each Bowl Game. No need, I have you covered.
10-sim Average | Wins | Losses | |
| 9 | 4 | |
Bowl Game | Appearances | Wins | Losses |
Outback | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Insight | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Rose | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Alamo | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Liberty | 1 | 1 | 0 |
vs. Opponents | Wins | Losses | Win % |
vs. Coastal Carolina | 10 | 0 | 100% |
vs. Oregon State | 10 | 0 | 100% |
at Syracuse | 9 | 1 | 90% |
Temple | 9 | 1 | 90% |
Illinois | 8 | 2 | 80% |
at Purdue | 7 | 3 | 70% |
at Wisconsin | 2 | 8 | 20% |
Michigan | 4 | 6 | 40% |
at Ohio State | 2 | 8 | 20% |
at Iowa | 10 | 0 | 100% |
Indiana | 7 | 3 | 70% |
Michigan State | 7 | 3 | 70% |
Well that's not a very good bowl record (3-7). We made the Outback Bowl 4 times. I'm not sure how the fan base would react if that were to happen this year. I think most are expecting a Capital One berth (as the Big Ten's #2 or 3 team). Sadly, we didn't make that game once. We also ended up at some pretty crappy bowls (Insight, Liberty).
Looking at our record versus each of the opponents on are schedule this year could be hazardous to your health. While there was at least 1 expected outcome (100% chance of beating Coastal Carolina) there were also a few surprising (100% chance of beating Oregon State, Iowa) as well as disturbing ones. There is a 10% chance of losing to Syracuse and Temple? I hope not. I do like the 80% success rate against overrated Illinois. However the heart of the schedule, the gauntlet in successive weeks at Wisconsin, versus Michigan, and at Ohio State was disheartening. Against the Big Ten favorites, Ohio State and Wisconsin, we won 4 of 20 games (2 versus each team). In reality, I don't dispute this. I think Ohio State and Wisconsin are better than us. I actually would place our chances at taking down Ohio State in Columbus at less than 10%. However I may bump up our chances at Wisconsin, but not by much. Maybe to 30%. The Michigan results hurt much more. Does EA take into account how much we suck against them? Maybe. Only 4 wins against a mediocre team in Beaver Stadium? I hope not. Our win % for that game should be closer to 60%. Elsewhere, the Iowa result surprised me just because we were a perfect 10 for 10. We are better but winning every time was surprising. The Indiana and Michigan State games are at home and could be the last 2 of JoePa's career. I think our chances of winning the Indiana game are ~90%. Michigan State probably is right where it should be.
I definitely call this simulation analysis a success. I think Penn State finished right around where they should, on average. The 9-4 record seems acceptable for now. The game seems to agree that October 11th-25th will suck for us. Hopefully we will win 1 of the 3.
I hope you enjoyed this little project. I'd like to do the same for Madden and will attempt to next week, prior to the start of the season. I'm not promising anything but I may get to it. Thanks for reading.
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