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The 2009 NFL Draft is in the books. Now we have to wait until the end of July for training camp, August for preseason games, and September for meaningful football. What ever shall we do? There's always time for predictions sure to be wrong come January. But they are fun. And fun is good.
Here is my first take at how the 2009 NFL season will play out, filled with approximate records, division champs, and playoff results. I'll do this at least twice more, most likely as training camp starts and right before the regular season begins.
You can see my 2008 predictions here (extremely early), here (start of training camp), here (start of regular season), and my recap following the conclusion of the season.
| TEAM | WIN-LOSS | NOTES |
| AFC | ||
| North | ||
| Baltimore Ravens | 11-5 | Division Champ. |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10-6 | Wild Card |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 7-9 | |
| Cleveland Browns | 4-12 | |
| | ||
| South | ||
| Indianapolis Colts | 11-5 | Division Champ. |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9-7 | Wild Card |
| Tennessee Titans | 9-7 | |
| Houston Texans | 8-8 | |
| | ||
| East | ||
| New England Patriots | 12-4 | Division Champ. |
| Miami Dolphins | 8-8 | |
| New York Jets | 7-9 | |
| Buffalo Bills | 7-9 | |
| | ||
| West | ||
| San Diego Chargers | 11-5 | Division Champ. |
| Denver Broncos | 6-10 | |
| Oakland Raiders | 5-11 | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4-12 | |
| | ||
| NFC | ||
| North | ||
| Chicago Bears | 10-6 | Division Champ. |
| Green Bay Packers | 9-7 | Wild Card |
| Minnesota Vikings | 9-7 | |
| Detroit Lions | 3-13 | |
| | ||
| South | ||
| New Orleans Saints | 11-5 | Division Champ. |
| Carolina Panthers | 9-7 | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5-11 | |
| | ||
| East | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | 12-4 | Division Champ. |
| New York Giants | 11-5 | Wild Card |
| Dallas Cowboys | 8-8 | |
| Washington Redskins | 7-9 | |
| West | ||
| Arizona Cardinals | 9-7 | Division Champ. |
| Seattle Seahawks | 8-8 | |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-10 | |
| St. Louis Rams | 3-13 | |
So there are my way too early predictions on how the 2009 season will play out.
Surprises? I've got surprises. Well, to me at least.
Ravens win AFC North over the Steelers - It's hard to repeat in this league and the Ravens appear better on paper this year. Plus Flacco has a year under his belt now.
The Titans fail to make the playoffs - It was a great year for Tennessee but I don't see them repeating what they were able to do in the 2008 regular season. The division is too deep. The Colts remain one of The League's best, the Jags will rebound, and the Texans are slowly getting better.
The Patriots are back on top - Would the Patriots have won an extra game or two with Tom Brady? Maybe. The 3-point loss to the Colts and the OT loss to the Jets stand out. With those wins, the Patriots would have been 13-3 and division champs once more. Well Brady is back and the secondary was overhauled. Anything less than 12-4 should be seen as a failure.
The West is weak (part 1) - Hand the Chargers this division. There will be no competitors. San Diego has too much talent for Kansas City, Oakland, and Denver, who will all struggle to get to 7 wins in '09.
Jay Cutler will make a difference in Chicago - I like Kyle Orton but Jay Cutler has more talent. Despite the Bears receiving shortcomings, they have a solid ground game and an improved defense. The Cutler-lead Bears win the NFC North, squeaking past the Packers and Vikings. And Detroit wins a few games!
Worst to first continues - The NFC South is a funny division. Since its inception in 2002, the team that finished last won the division the following year. According to that logic it is New Orleans' turn. An 8-8 record would have been pretty good in the NFC West but not in the South last season. The Saints remain potent on offense and improve enough defensively to wisk the division crown from Carolina and hold off resurgent Atlanta, who I think will struggle some in '09.
The best race in 2009 - The Eagles and Giants are poised to have a great race this season. The Giants will have Osi Umenyiora back and easily the deepest d-line in The League. Manning has two new HUGE targets as well. However, the Eagles have made better upgrades. Andrews, Peters, Maclin, and McCoy prove too much for the G-men.
The West is weak (part 2) - A 9-7 record may very well win the dvision again. The Cardinals, while clutch in the playoffs, were very inconsistent during the 2008 regular season. Plus it's hard to maintain a high level of play as a Super Bowl loser. Seattle could make a comeback with a healthy Hasselbeck and receivers. San Francisco and St. Louis continue to tread water.
So those are my regular season predictions. How about the playoffs?
| 2009-2010 NFL Playoffs | ||
| Wild Card Round | ||
| AFC | ||
| (6) Jacksonville Jaguars | (3) Indianapolis Colts | (3) Colts, 31-21 |
| (5) Pittsburgh Steelers | (4) Baltimore Ravens | (4) Ravens, 17-14 |
| NFC | ||
| (6) Green Bay Packers | (3) Chicago Bears | (6) Packers, 37-24 |
| (5) New York Giants | (4) Arizona Cardinals | (5) Giants, 24-13 |
| Divisional Round | ||
| AFC | ||
| (4) Baltimore Ravens | (1) New England Patriots | (1) Patriots, 27-17 |
| (3) Indianapolis Colts | (2) San Diego Chargers | (3) Colts, 21-17 |
| NFC | ||
| (6) Green Bay Packers | (1) Philadelphia Eagles | (1) Eagles, 23-16 |
| (5) New York Giants | (2) New Orleans Saints | (2) Saints, 34-31 |
| Conference Championships | ||
| AFC | ||
| (3) Indianapolis Colts | (1) New England Patriots | (1) Patriots, 21-20 |
| NFC | ||
| (2) New Orleans Saints | (1) Philadelphia Eagles | (1) Eagles, 30-27 |
| Super Bowl XLIV | ||
| Philadelphia Eagles | New England Patriots | Patriots, 27-24 |
Yep, a repeat of Super Bowl XXXIX. And, yes, a 3-point loss by the Eagles. This one isn't in Jacksonville, however. It's in Miami.
What do you think?
Versions 2 and 3 will be released later this summer.
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