Football Outsiders Say Fear Poz in 2009

Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders wants you to know one thing: fear Posluszny. OK, he really wants you to know that there are five young players in the AFC that are going to become building blocks for their teams in 2009. Ravens LT Jared Gaither, Titans DT Jason Jones, Steelers LB Lawrence Timmons and Texans CB Fred Bennett should all rise up this upcoming season and become Pro Bowl-type players providing a stable foundation for their franchises. But who cares about them, really? Tell me more about Posluszny! (link for ESPN Insiders, sorry)

Another middle linebacker, Posluszny would likely already be one of the AFC East's building blocks had he not fractured his forearm three games into the 2007 season. In what effectively served as his rookie year in 2008, Posluszny showed signs of becoming an excellent middle linebacker. He made 14.7 percent of his team's plays on the ground, eighth among 4-3 middle linebackers; furthermore, he was making tackles in important places. He had a stop rate of 54 percent, meaning that 63 of his 116 plays prevented the opposition from achieving a "successful" outcome on the play (defined here as gaining 40 percent of the needed yardage for a first down on first down, 60 percent on second down, or 100 percent on third or fourth down); that figure was sixth among 4-3 middle linebackers.

Penn State fans know all about this -- and in 2009, the entire AFC may come to fear Paul Posluszny.

He has still some work to go as a pass defender and as a pass rusher, but the Bills count on him primarily to be an elite run-stopper at linebacker. If he's not quite there yet, he very well may be after this season.

Ya hear that haters? Poz means business and will be a household name in 2009.

Posluszny may be my favorite Nittany Lion of All-Time. He plays the position I love and was an excellent student and role model, which can not always be said for college athletes. Poz is a beast and it's nice to see him getting recognized but statistical gurus.

SNT: Q&A with Bills Rookie DE Aaron Maybin

Today was a good day for articles in Sporting News Today. Shortly after the Top 50 Players in Major League Baseball article (which featured four Phillies) came a short interview with former Penn State football player - and Buffalo Bills draft pick - Aaron Maybin.

Sporting News Radio: Did you really run a 4.6-second 40-yard dash?
Aaron Maybin: I ran a 4.58 at my Pro Day.

SNR: I'm sorry, a 4.58. You're freakishly fast aren't you?
AM: That's always been a gift that I've been blessed with. I guess all those days of chasing my shadows when I was a kid paid off.

For the full interview click the image below.

Sporting News Radio posed nine questions to Bills rookie DE Aaron Maybin in a recent interview. The transcript made its way into today's issue of the digital magazine.

2009 NFL Draft Grades: Buffalo Bills

The Bills, for once, were the center of attention this offseason. Not once, but twice. First they signed former Cowboys WR Terrell Owens, adding him to a young core of offensive playmakers. Then they traded a stud LT - which most definitely do not grow on trees - for an additional first round pick (plus a fourth and a sixth in 2010). The once proud franchise has not reached double-digit victories this century, last winning 10 or more games in 1999 when they won 11. The '99 season was also the last time Buffalo played meaningful games in January. You read that correctly, the Bills haven't been relevant for almost a decade now.

INTRODUCTION
Who or what is to blame for the decade of inadequacy which stretched through last season? Many want to blame the the owner or coach. I'm not evaluating that part of it; just the players. How did they perform? Well they have a ways to go on offense, surprisingly. Perhaps T.O. and Dominic Rhodes will fix that? Anyway, the Bills scored an average of 21 points per game which ranked 23rd in The League. They passed for less than 200 yards per game and averaged just over 300 total yards per game, both of which put them in the bottom third of the league. They were rather decent on defense; slightly better than average for the most part. Buffalo ranked 14th in points and total yards allowed per game and were 13th in passing yards allowed per game. That lost one may had to do with the fact that they were closer to the bottom than the top in terms of stopping the run (22nd overall). Rectify that and you may be able to assure that close game losses become wins.

Dick Jauron is back as head coach for his fourth season. Jauron has only ever finished a season at 7-9 with the Bills. Unless they finish 2009 with a winning record, Jauron is most likely gone. His staff returns intact allowing some younger players to continue to develop. A strong draft class could turn that 7-9 record into 9-7 one. Not that that is amazing, but it's progress.


DRAFT RECAP
Round/Pick/Overall
1/11/11 - Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State
1/28/28 - Eric Wood, OC, Louisville
2/10/42 - Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon
2/19/51 - Andy Levitre, OG, Oregon State
4/21/121 - Shawn Nelson, TE, Southern Miss
5/11/147 - Nic Harris, SS/OLB, Oklahoma
6/10/183 - Cary Harris, CB, USC
7/11/220 - Ellis Lankster, CB, West Virginia


BASED ON NEEDS

• OL - Check!
• DL - Check!
• TE - Check!
• LB - Check!
• RB - Try again.
• WR - Try again.
  

The Bills came armed with two first round selections, which they ended up keeping and using for themselves rather than moving up in the draft. With just those picks they filled needs along the offensive and defensive lines. Later they added more OL help as well as stocked their secondary and added one of the elite players in the deep TE class. They didn't grab any OT the entire draft which was interesting since they traded their LT to the Eagles. There was no RB or WR help either, but did they really need it? They added some solid players but really missed when choosing multiple DBs over any OTs.

GRADE: 80/100


BASED ON TALENT
Pick 1 - I like Aaron Maybin. Being a Penn State grad do you expect anything less from me? But I just don't know if he was the best choice here. The Bills traded Peters and needed someone to groom at LT. Why not take Oher? Langston Walker is your starting LT now. Even though Oher lasted until the 23rd pick, that doesn't mean he wouldn't have been a good selection at 11. This really has less to do with Maybin than it does with filling needs with good players. To me OT was more important than DE. Grade: 7

Pick 2 - This pick I can get behind. They needed offensive linemen - not just tackles. Wood was in a fight to be the first center taken. Though he lost he was still a first round pick. Geoff Hangartner is listed as the starter now but I'd be surprised to see anyone but Wood snapping the ball in game one. Grade: 9

Pick 3 - Where was the urgent need for a DB, whether a corner or a safety? McGee, Youboty, McKelvin, Corner, Simpson, Whitner, Wilson, and Scott were already on the roster. I can see them adding a player sometime during the draft but so early in the second round? And Byrd over some other players like DE Everette Brown, OLB Clint Sintim, OC/OG Max Unger, or DE Paul Kruger? Looking at the players available makes me think the Maybin pick was even worse. Grade: 5

Pick 4 - Making up for passing on Unger the team selects Levitre. Good move. They now have a new center and a new guard that may start from Day 1. Levitre actually has the versatility to move out to tackle but he'd be best at guard. This is a good pick. Grade: 8

Pick 5 - Another value pick here. Shawn Nelson was one of the many TEs in the 2009 class, a class considered quite deep. The Bills only had two Derek's - Shcouman and Fine - at the position prior to the draft. Nelson can challenge them right away. Good pick. Grade: 8

Pick 6 - Nic Harris is making the conversion from SS to OLB. He'll need time to refine his skills. He is basically a poor man's Thomas Davis, the Panthers LB they converted from safety. They were looking for some depth at OLB, though an immediate starter would have been nice. Based on needs and player availability this wasn't a terrible pick. However Jamon Meredith was available and would have been a steal this late. Grade: 7

Pick 7 - Since the Bills are converting Jairus Byrd to FS they felt the need to add another DB, this time at corner. This actually wasn't a bad pick. Harris was arguably the best value available and could be a guy looked to start in 2010 if McGee leaves. Harris and McKelvin could be the 2010 starters. This pick hopefully came down to Harris or RB Cedric Peerman. Either way it was a good one. Grade: 8

Pick 8 - OK, another DB? Ellis Lankster isn't a terrible choice but knowing they already drafted Byrd and C. Harris makes this look a little less smart. Someone like Lydon Murtha or Rashad Jennings would have been wiser. Grade: 5

GRADE: 57/80


OVERALL
Pass rushing DE? Check. Find a new TE? Check. Go overboard with DBs? Check. Upgrade the o-line? For the most part. Adding a tackle would have done wonders for this class. I still think it's pretty solid but I just don't like the triple-dipping in the defensive backfield in lie of grabbing an OT. And Maybin - who could develop into a premiere pass rusher - needs a year or two to develop into an every down player. That's not what the goal is for a first rounder in the Top 15.

FINAL GRADE: C+

WHY: I was ready to give Buffalo a B- but settled for the C+ because of the massive oversight of not taking any OTs. They definitely sured up the o-line with Wood and Levitre (ha!) and if they would have added a tackle somewhere - like Meredith or Murtha - then the line could be set for a number of years. They don't have to worry about the secondary, that's for sure.

NOTE: My "final grade" is weighted and is not a simple combination of "needs" and "talent".


SUPERLATIVES
Best Pick: Wood
Worst Pick: Maybin
Sleeper: Cary Harris
Instant Impact: Wood/Levitre
Developmental: Nic Harris


OTHER DRAFT GRADES - Buffalo Bills
CBS Sports (Prisco): B-
CBS Sports (Rang): B
ESPN (Kiper): B+
NFL.com (Brooks): B+
NFL.com (Fan's): B
Walter: C-

UP NEXT

ON DECK

Eagles Acquire LT Jason Peters

Jay Glazer of FOX Sports is reporting that the Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills have agreed on a trade that will send Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters to Buffalo. In return the Bills receive the Eagles 1st round pick acquired originally from Carolina, #28 overall, as well as the Eagles 4th round pick, #121 overall, and a late-round pick in the 2010 draft. Peters will step in for the departed William "Tra" Thomas, who signed with Jacksonville as a free agent. With the trade for Peters and the acquisition of Stacy Andrews in free agency, the Eagles will trot out to new - and expensive - tackles in opening day.

Honestly I think the Eagles got a steal. Buffalo should have been looking for a 1st and 3rd, at least. Philadelphia offered less and the Bills jumped on it. Definitely tells me that, like Willis McGahee three seasons ago, the Bills just wanted to get rid of the player. Peters will want a new contract and to be paid as one of the top 5 tackles in the league, which he may not be.

Good luck Philly front office.

The Bills are officially the worst team in the NFL

Even the Jets are better now. The Bills got 5, count 'em, 5 INTs off of Romo, returned 2 for TDs, returned a kick 103 yards for a touchdown...and lost. At home. Wow. How does that happen?