Well, well, well...

I'd first like to state that the NFL is stupid. Dan Connor still available after 2 rounds? This dude is easily first round talent. Wake up.

That being said, I'd like to state that Justin King is in fact a ginormous idiot. Over 3 months ago, I posted that he was an idiot for declaring. What the hell was Kiper Jr. saying he could go late 1st round? I'm glad he proved me correct. Again, I don't wish him any ill will, I'm just glad he's learning his lesson. Declaring for the draft was the dumbest thing he could have done. Juniors declare for the draft because they really can't improve their draft stock (ie Ray Rice of Rutgers) or if they really need money to support their family (though that seems to be more common in basketball). King had everything to improve and he declared anyway...and now he's paying the price. If he stuck around and refined his skills, he absolutely could have found his way into the 1st round. However, he's an arrogant one and thought that declaring early was a good idea. Well, it's a good idea if you like a few million dollars as opposed to about ten million dollars. King is a frekin idiot and I'm glad that he's paying the price. He never really did much for us at PSU anyway.

On another note, I'm really curious to see if someone takes a late 7th round flyer on Morelli. I'd seriously lol for days if somebody does. What did he get...a 5.1 40 at the combine? Seriously, his only redeeming aspect is he can heave the ball a decent length. His character is crap (I've heard stories that I'm sure scouts didn't hear), his accuracy is crap, and well...he's just crap.

Also, congrats to J Mays for his Dolphins takin' his boy Henne. Unfortunately (according to my friend), Henne didn't look as thrilled but I wish him the best...I typically dislike Wolverines but J Mays' love for him might have rubbed off on me a little bit.

I don't even really know what to make of the Jets' draft so far. I'm incredibly disappointed that McFadden didn't fall to us but realize Gholston could be a really good pick. Then again, Dwayne Robertson was supposed to be a good pick at #4 overall a few years back for us...oops...I understand Dustin Keller is a pretty solid TE...but I'm still bitter we didn't take J.J. Hardy. Frankly, I think it was a poor trade because we could have had Hardy at #37 and kept our other 4th round pick. I wanted this guy. Yes, he torched the overrated Justin King last year but he's 6'5! The Jets need that...bad...

Penn State's Dan Connor Wins Bednarik Award

Dan Connor leers at a Michigan State player during the 2006 game at Happy Valley.

Dan Connor continues to make 'Linebacker U' proud. Connor was named the Bednarik Award recipient tonight during the Hom Depot College Football Awards show on ESPN. The Bednarik Award is given annually to the best defensive player at the college level as decided by the Maxwell Football Club. With Connor's win Penn State has now captured this award in three consecutive seasons. Paul Posluszny won the award in 2005 and 2006. Connor, who has 410 tackles in his four years, is also a finalist for the Butkus Award which is given to the nation's best linebacker. Posluszny failed in his attempt to repeat as Butkus Award winner in 2006 as the award went to Patrick Willis of Mississippi. The odds on favorite is Ohio State's James Laurinaitis.

Connor was also named to the Walter Camp All-America team, the nations oldest All-America squad. He will most likely be named to many more first team and national squads over the next few weeks.

Looking Ahead: Will the Nittany Lions Challenge for the National Championship in 2008?

Hopes were high this year in Happy Valley. As the team sits at 7-3 they are deemed a disappointment. Many thought this 2007 edition of Penn State football would be eying a trip to New Orleans on January 8th for the National Championship game. They were wrong. The team has underperformed and proven once again that they are mediocre at best; they're the best second tier team the Big Ten has to offer. Except for 1994 and 2005, Penn State is more often than not between the 3rd and 5th best team in the Big Ten. This year is no different. What about next year?

I never bought into the hype that Penn Stat could actually challenge for the National Title. There were too many question marks. Would Anthony Morelli play the entire season, or a majority of it, like he did versus Tennessee in the 2007 Outback Bowl? He certainly has not. His futility was demonstrated particularly well in a 27-20 loss at Illinois as well as a disappointing performance at Michigan. Will they be able to replace Tony Hunt? At first I wasn't so sure. Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw had trouble holding onto the ball and the line was not blocking well. With Scott now out of the picture, Kinlaw and redshirt freshman Evan Royster have performed better than expected. Can the defense perform at an elite level like it did in 2005 and 2006? Yes and no. They have looked dominating at times, but that was earlier in the season. Their downfall started during the Illinois game and they haven't looked dominating since, especially the pass D. Looking at the rankings and statistics doesn't make the defense sound as bad as it has looked. Here are some national rankings for Penn State's defense through 11/5/2007:

• 12th in Total Defense; allowing 301.2 yards/game and 4.37 yards/play
• 11th in Scoring Defense; allowing 20 TDs and 17.6 points/game
• 9th in Rushing Defense; allowing 90.6 yards/game, 2.6 yards/carry, and 6 TDs
• 44th in Passing Defense; allowing 210.6 yards/game and 10 TDs
• 30th in Passing Efficiency; allowing 6.18 yards/attempt, 10.86 yards/completion, and a 56.89 completion percentage
• 79th in Passes Intercepted; 8 INTs and 2.35% of pass attempts intercepted
• 1st in Sacks; 40 sacks and an average of 4 sacks/game
• 6th in Tackles for Loss; 85 TFLs, 370 yards lost, and 8.5 TFLs/game
• 51st in stopping 3rd Down Conversions; 37.7% conversions successful

Overall those numbers look pretty good on paper. But a few things do stand out...passing defense and 3rd down conversions. The passing defense is only slightly better than average. My biggest concern is allowing almost 11 yards/completion. I know that is skewed with deep passes but it should also be skewed with short passes and screens. The average is WAY too high. I attribute this to shoddy tackling and that stupid lazy zone coverage that Tom Bradley insists on. Justin King is a supposed 1st Round NFL talent. If he really is, have him press the man! In my opinion, man coverage is more successful in shutting down receivers than zone. Strong cover corners, like King is supposed to be, should be able to line up 1-on-1 and shut the receiver down. Putting a team in zone is begging a team to complete 7-12 yard passes all game. If you don't want the whole team in zone, employ Cover 1. Not Cover 2 or 3. Obviously this changes with offensive packages, but with a base defense Penn State should use Cover 1. With their personnel, man-to-man would prove ideal. This could also help rectify another shortcoming, INTs. Only eight through 10 games? Wow. Where are those defensive playmakers? Anthony Scirrotto, King, and Tony Davis have underperformed this year. More man-to-man coverage could help increase INTs with proper technique and one roaming safety. Going back to the terrible zone coverage, 3rd down defense is atrocious. Ranked 51st? Allowing opposing teams almost a 40% conversion percentage? Unacceptable. Providing one or two more stops per game would drop that percentage into the low 30s, where it should be (Ohio State, tops in the Big Ten and 13th nationally, is allowing 30.5%). Troy (Troy!) leads the nation allowing only 24% conversions on 3rd down.

OK back to the main reason for this article: is Penn State poised to challenge for the '08 title after failing in '07? Possibly. As preseason polls show, no one really knows how a team is going to perform. We can speculate all we want. But we may not know a teams true colors until well into the season. Less than a month ago South Florida was ranked #2. They have now lost three straight. Whoops. Penn State returns a plethora of starters and lettermen for next years squad. The only significant losses are QB Anthony Morelli, LB Dan Connor, and OL John Shaw. Everyone else is back (barring jumps to the NFL from Scirrotto and/or King, but I see them coming back to prove they're more like their 2006 form and not the 2007 version). The biggest loss will be -- I can't believe I'm saying this -- Morelli. Not for his playmaking ability or his decision making. Just because he had experience. Even if Daryll Clark or Pat Devlin is potentially better in every way, they have little or no experience. Experience is everything. Losing Morelli will hurt but luckily PSU has scheduled powder puffs again for the first four games (vs Coastal Carolina, vs Arkansas State, @ Syracuse, vs To Be Announced). This will give Clark or Devlin time to adjust. Morelli will be a bigger loss than Connor because Sean Lee will be back. So will Tyrell Sales, Navorro Bowman, Bani Gbadyu, and a slew of highly touted freshman (redshirt and true). 'Linebacker U' will be fine in that respect.

So the 2008 team is almost a mirror image of the 2007 team. For better or worse. IF the team finds a suitable QB in Clark or Devlin, the team SHOULD improve. Challenge for the Big Ten? Absolutely. The schedule is rather brutal. The biggest tests will be, as usual, against Ohio State and Michigan. In 2008, Michigan comes to Happy Valley but travels to the Horseshoe. Penn State has to play four of five on the road starting October 4th @ Purdue followed by a second road trip to Madison, WI on October 11th. The Nittany Lions return home on the 18th for their battle against the Wolverines. Then they hit the road again to take on the Buckeyes (October 25th) and the road finale @ Iowa (November 8th). The last two games of '08 are in the friendly confines of Beaver Stadium vs Indiana (November 15th) and Michigan State (November 22nd). The schedule is much more difficult next year than it was this year. But a true contender fights through. I don't think Penn State has it in them. They will be better in 2008, but not a real National Title contender. If they finish 2007 at 9-3 (5-3) with a probable birth (and loss to an SEC team) in the Outback Bowl, I see 2008 at 10-2 (6-2) with losses @ Ohio State and @ Wisconsin. Predicted Bowl Game: Capital One. Sorry Blue & White, next year, like this year, is not your year.