Mountaineers and Buckeyes??

Just when you thought the National Title Game picture couldn't get any weirder...it does. With LSU and ASU falling, the door is wide open for those two coveted slots. Tomorrow, Kansas or Missouri will have their hopes smashed after the big showdown at Arrowhead. However, when all the dust settles at the beginning of December, who will be on top? Right now, it's anyone's guess. The possibilities are endless. Here are some odds (given in the order of the current BCS Standings) on who will be playing in New Orleans in January.

LSU (35-1): LSU pretty much blew their chance at playing for the title in their own backyard when they fell to Arkansas. However, there is still a remote chance that they will be playing for the title. I think it's safe to say Ohio State will get a bid over them but they basically need a lot of sympathy from the voters and for Kansas, Missouri, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia to lose and to win the SEC title. Kansas or Missou has to lose and the winner could very well lose to OU. They might get lucky and stay over VT in the polls, primarily because they're crushed them earlier this year but if not, they still have to beat UVA and BC again. If Tennessee loses @UK tomorrow, LSU will take on Georgia for the SEC. If UT wins, then Georgia (currently sitting at #7 in the BCS) could remain ahead of LSU if they don't have to face them. Pretty much, LSU wants to face Georgia to assure themselves a spot ahead of them. WVU has to beat UConn and Pitt. Shouldn't be too difficult but I really think the jury is still out on UConn and anything can happen in the Backyard Brawl. Again, they're in big trouble but all hope is not lost.

Kansas (10-1): Kansas has played damn well this year. Unfortunately, they haven't played damn well against a top tier team yet because they haven't faced any. They control their own destiny but have to get through Missouri and Oklahoma to reach their goal. Can they do it? Probably. Will they? Not so sure.

West Virginia (2-1): I give the Mountaineers pretty good odds to reach the title game. They finish out the season at home against UConn and Pitt, which is certainly a good thing. While those two games aren't pushovers by any stretch, I don't see them losing either of them. They're just too good and have played solid football since losing at South Florida. Their last two games have been relatively close calls but I think it's slightly safe to say that games against UL and @Cincy are a bit more rough than home dates with the Huskies and Panthers.

Missouri (12-1): Their odds are a little bit worse than Kansas' because they've already lost to Oklahoma (so I know for sure OU can beat them). Either way, like Kansas, they control their own destiny and land in New Orleans with wins over the Jayhawks and Sooners in the last two weeks of the season.

Ohio State (4-1): If we've learned anything this college football season, it's that you're the safest when you don't play. Ohio State has the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see if everyone ahead of them screws up. LSU and Kansas or Missouri are going to fall behind them in the BCS Standings this week, virtually assuring them of the #3 spot behind WVU (assuming they win) and the winner of Kansas v. Missouri. The way I see it, OSU needs 1 of 3 things to happen to make it to New Orleans.

1-Oklahoma to win the Big 12
2-WVU to lose to UConn
3-WVU to lose to Pitt

If any of those three things happen, I really don't see another team beating them out for a slot in the National Title Game.

Arizona State (1000-1): Losing to USC effectively took them out of the race. It's a shame too because a win over the Trojans could have possibly pushed them over the Buckeyes and into 3rd place in the BCS.

Georgia (50-1): Somewhat of a dark horse in this race. If Kansas, Missouri and West Virginia all lose, Georgia could find their way into the title game. A win over LSU in the SEC Title game would give them a lot of props, though they need UT to lose tomorrow for that matchup to happen. There's even the outside chance that staying out of the SEC title game could help them, especially if UT beats LSU. I'm sure they'd like to be able to make it to New Orleans without having to go through LSU but it might be what it takes.

Virginia Tech (40-1): There's no telling how the computers will react to wins over Virginia and BC. The computers have BC as a top 10 team and UVA on the outside, looking in. If the Hokies can beat them, and have WVU, KU, and Missou all fall, there's no telling what might happen. It's pretty much a toss up as to where they will stand relative to LSU this week but that will be made more clear come Sunday. If LSU falls in the SEC Title game, then they're obviously out of the picture anyway.

Rest of Field (80-1): Crazier things have happened this year. I mean heck, USF used to have the #2 BCS spot. Either way, the field pretty much consists of Oklahoma, Oregon and USC. All three of those teams basically need every team currently ahead of them in the BCS standings (outside of OSU) to lose. Highly unlikely, but it could still happen.

With all that being said, I would currently put my money on a WVU v. OSU national title game. I really don't see Oklahoma losing the Big 12 and WVU should definitely win out. Sure, I'm biased because they're the two conferences that I follow the most but still, I would really like to see that game. You never see any good Big East v. Big Ten matchups in football and that would be one heck of a game. One way or the other, nothing in college football is even certain. For all I know Hawaii could end up in the title game...

Week 5 Pac-10 breakdown

If you're looking for some excitement in college football this weekend, look no further than the Pac-10, which has four -- count 'em, four -- games of interest as we approach Week 5 of the season.

Cal at Oregon
Why it's important: Both teams are looking to start the season 5-0. Most people thought the Bears would roll into this game 4-0, but not many expected the Ducks to be undefeated. The winning team could square off with USC undefeated (Oregon has the easiest path, not to mention fewer games between now and then) and be a legitimate challenger for the Pac-10 title. DeSean Jackson hopes to make those Heisman whispers a little louder.
Important Stat: Cal has given up 24.5 ppg, while Oregon has given up 21.5 ppg. None of their eight combined opponents are currently ranked (Tennessee was ranked when they played Cal). We've seen great triumphs (Cal over Tennessee 45-31, Oregon over Michigan 39-7) and a few low points (Cal escapes from Colorado State, Stanford puts up 28 points on Oregon in the 2nd quarter). The defenses might be suspect, but these high-powered offenses are not. Maybe you've heard of DeSean Jackson and Dennis Dixon.
The Edge: I think Cal comes home 5-0 after a shootout. I think we saw a few kinks in Oregon's armor during the Stanford game. Make no mistake, though -- Cal's not perfect. You saw their last away game.

UCLA at Oregon State
Why it's important: It's a match in Corvallis of two teams struggling to find consistency. By now, you probably heard of these teams stinking up the joint on the road. Both would like some added confidence before embarking upon a gauntlet-like second half of the season.
Important Stat: Oregon State beat Utah 24-7. UCLA got trounced by Utah 44-6. Any questions?
The Edge: Yeah, it's in Corvallis, but UCLA rolls in riding high after regrouping against Ty Willingham and Washington and will return home with a 2-0 record in the conference before taking a non-conference break against Notre Shame.

USC at Washington
Why it's important: I don't know about you, but I can't wait to hear Brent Musburger gush over and over again about the Trojans ... again. But didn't this matchup sound more intriguing back when the Huskies were 2-0? Since then, losses to Ohio State and UCLA have brought the Willingham fans and Weis-haters back to Earth. Will Washington have enough left in the tank to make this game competitive?
Important Stat: Washington lost both of its last two games in the second half. They went into the locker room against Ohio State up 7-3, only to lose 33-14. They went into halftime at the Rose Bowl tied 10-10 with UCLA, then let UCLA score two touchdowns in the third to pull away and eventually win 44-31.
The Edge: Jake Locker is a great player, but the Huskies have taken too many hits for this to go their way. USC rolls out of Seattle with another win, probably with another Husky collapse in the latter half (if it's still close by then).

Arizona State at Stanford
Why it's important: The Sun Devils are back in the Top 25, making it four ranked teams for coach Dennis Erickson in his career. They look to go 5-0 when they play Stanford, which is looking for a win over an opponent more impressive than San Jose State.
Important Stat: Stanford is already 0-2 against ranked conference opponents this year, losing to UCLA and Oregon by a combined 100-48. However, ASU nearly edges out Stanford in yards per game this season, with 466 ypg to Stanford's 460.3 ypg.
The Edge: The Sun Devils will run away from the Cardinal in this one, quite possibly leading up to a 7-0 start before Cal comes calling to Tempe.