NCAA Division 1-A Simulated Tournament: Round 1, Part 1 Results

NOTES: If you have no idea what this is about, read this first. Statistics are for team leaders.

Besides the play-in game between Tennessee and Boise State, I also simulated four games from the first round. The results for these games are below. By Saturday (12/8/07) Round 1, Part 2 should be finished and the results, along with Round 1 awards, will be posted. I hope to finish Round 2 by Sunday (12/9/07). As anticipated, upsets will happen...

16 Tennessee vs 1 Ohio State
Round 1, Game 1 Results

Final Score
36-21, Tennessee

Game Statistics

Passing
Todd Boeckman, Ohio State - 14 of 30, 206 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs
Erik Ainge, Tennessee - 15 of 29, 262 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTS

Rushing
Maurice Wells, Ohio State - 17 rushes, 92 yards, 0 TDs, 1 fumble
Jakouri Williams, Tennessee - 18 rushes, 80 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles

Receiving
Brian Hartline, Ohio State - 5 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD, 2 drops
Kenny O'Neal, Tennessee - 8 catches, 156 yards, 0 TDs, 2 drops

Defensive
Jamario O'Neal, Ohio State - 15 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT
Andre Mathis, Tennessee - 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT

Kicking

Aaron Pettrey, Ohio State - 0 FGs made, 0 FGs attempted
Daniel Lincoln, Tennessee - 3 FGs made, 3 FGs attempted

9 Florida vs 8 Hawaii
Round 1, Game 2 Results

Final Score
45-21, Florida

Game Statistics

Passing
Colt Brennan, Hawaii - 29 of 55, 453 yards, 3 TDs, 6INTs
Tim Tebow, Florida - 16 of 30, 364 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT

Rushing
Colt Brenna, Hawaii - 12 rushes, 59 yards, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles
Tim Tebow, Florida - 16 rushes, 86 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble

Receiving
Ryan Grice-Mullen, Hawaii - 12 catches, 190 yards, 2 TDs, 0 drops
Andre Caldwell, Florida - 7 catches, 145 yards, 2 TDs, 1 drop

Defensive
Michael Lafaele, Hawaii - 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INTs
Derrick Harvey, Florida - 8 tackles, 1 sack, 0 INTs

Kicking

Dan Kelly, Hawaii - 0 FGs made, 0 FGs attempted
Joey Ijjas, Florida - 1 FG made, 3 FGs attempted

10 Missouri vs 7 USC
Round 1, Game 3 Results

Final Score
37-34, USC

Game Statistics

Passing
Chase Daniel, Missouri - 21 of 36, 272 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT
John David Booty, USC - 17 of 29, 255 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTS

Rushing
Marcus Woods, Missouri - 17 rushes, 46 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble
Joe McKnight, USC - 37 rushes, 259 yards, 3 TDs, 1 fumble

Receiving
Jared Perry, Missouri - 9 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD, 1 drop
Vidal Hazleton, USC - 7 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD, 1 drop

Defensive
Tommy Chavis, Missouri - 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INTs
Chris Barrett, Tennessee - 8 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 INTs

Kicking

Jeff Wolfert, Missouri - 2 FGs made, 2 FGs attempted
David Buehler, USC - 3 FGs made, 3 FGs attempted

15 Clemson vs 2 LSU
Round 1, Game 4 Results

Final Score
41-38 (2 OTs), LSU

Game Statistics

Passing
Cullen Harper, Clemson - 15 of 23, 293 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
Matt Flynn, LSU - 17 of 35, 293 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTS

Rushing
C.J. Spiller, Clemson - 20 rushes, 100 yards, 0 TDs, 2 fumbles
Keiland Williams, LSU - 29 rushes, 123 yards, 2 TDs, 0 fumbles

Receiving
Jacoby Ford, Clemson - 10 catches, 202 yards, 3 TDs, 4 drops
Trindon Holliday, LSU - 3 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD, 0 drops

Defensive
Phillip Merling, Clemson - 7 tackles, 1 sack, 0 INTs
Luke Sanders, LSU - 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INTs

Kicking

Richard Jackson, Clemson - 1 FG made, 4 FGs attempted
Colt David, LSU - 2 FGs made, 2 FGs attempted

So there you have it. Tennessee upsets Ohio State at the Horseshoe in the first game of the tournament (excluding play-in). Tennessee is now 2-0 (Ws vs Boise State and Ohio State) and will play Florida in Gainesville. An SEC showdown. The other Round 2 matchup that has been determined will be USC visiting Baton Rouge to take on LSU. Two great matchups set for Round 2. Two more to be determined by Saturday. Stay tuned.

P.S. - Isn't it funny that LSU won in OT? I guess those two 3 OT losses earlier in the year have finally paid off ;-)

Mountaineers and Buckeyes??

Just when you thought the National Title Game picture couldn't get any weirder...it does. With LSU and ASU falling, the door is wide open for those two coveted slots. Tomorrow, Kansas or Missouri will have their hopes smashed after the big showdown at Arrowhead. However, when all the dust settles at the beginning of December, who will be on top? Right now, it's anyone's guess. The possibilities are endless. Here are some odds (given in the order of the current BCS Standings) on who will be playing in New Orleans in January.

LSU (35-1): LSU pretty much blew their chance at playing for the title in their own backyard when they fell to Arkansas. However, there is still a remote chance that they will be playing for the title. I think it's safe to say Ohio State will get a bid over them but they basically need a lot of sympathy from the voters and for Kansas, Missouri, Virginia Tech, and West Virginia to lose and to win the SEC title. Kansas or Missou has to lose and the winner could very well lose to OU. They might get lucky and stay over VT in the polls, primarily because they're crushed them earlier this year but if not, they still have to beat UVA and BC again. If Tennessee loses @UK tomorrow, LSU will take on Georgia for the SEC. If UT wins, then Georgia (currently sitting at #7 in the BCS) could remain ahead of LSU if they don't have to face them. Pretty much, LSU wants to face Georgia to assure themselves a spot ahead of them. WVU has to beat UConn and Pitt. Shouldn't be too difficult but I really think the jury is still out on UConn and anything can happen in the Backyard Brawl. Again, they're in big trouble but all hope is not lost.

Kansas (10-1): Kansas has played damn well this year. Unfortunately, they haven't played damn well against a top tier team yet because they haven't faced any. They control their own destiny but have to get through Missouri and Oklahoma to reach their goal. Can they do it? Probably. Will they? Not so sure.

West Virginia (2-1): I give the Mountaineers pretty good odds to reach the title game. They finish out the season at home against UConn and Pitt, which is certainly a good thing. While those two games aren't pushovers by any stretch, I don't see them losing either of them. They're just too good and have played solid football since losing at South Florida. Their last two games have been relatively close calls but I think it's slightly safe to say that games against UL and @Cincy are a bit more rough than home dates with the Huskies and Panthers.

Missouri (12-1): Their odds are a little bit worse than Kansas' because they've already lost to Oklahoma (so I know for sure OU can beat them). Either way, like Kansas, they control their own destiny and land in New Orleans with wins over the Jayhawks and Sooners in the last two weeks of the season.

Ohio State (4-1): If we've learned anything this college football season, it's that you're the safest when you don't play. Ohio State has the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see if everyone ahead of them screws up. LSU and Kansas or Missouri are going to fall behind them in the BCS Standings this week, virtually assuring them of the #3 spot behind WVU (assuming they win) and the winner of Kansas v. Missouri. The way I see it, OSU needs 1 of 3 things to happen to make it to New Orleans.

1-Oklahoma to win the Big 12
2-WVU to lose to UConn
3-WVU to lose to Pitt

If any of those three things happen, I really don't see another team beating them out for a slot in the National Title Game.

Arizona State (1000-1): Losing to USC effectively took them out of the race. It's a shame too because a win over the Trojans could have possibly pushed them over the Buckeyes and into 3rd place in the BCS.

Georgia (50-1): Somewhat of a dark horse in this race. If Kansas, Missouri and West Virginia all lose, Georgia could find their way into the title game. A win over LSU in the SEC Title game would give them a lot of props, though they need UT to lose tomorrow for that matchup to happen. There's even the outside chance that staying out of the SEC title game could help them, especially if UT beats LSU. I'm sure they'd like to be able to make it to New Orleans without having to go through LSU but it might be what it takes.

Virginia Tech (40-1): There's no telling how the computers will react to wins over Virginia and BC. The computers have BC as a top 10 team and UVA on the outside, looking in. If the Hokies can beat them, and have WVU, KU, and Missou all fall, there's no telling what might happen. It's pretty much a toss up as to where they will stand relative to LSU this week but that will be made more clear come Sunday. If LSU falls in the SEC Title game, then they're obviously out of the picture anyway.

Rest of Field (80-1): Crazier things have happened this year. I mean heck, USF used to have the #2 BCS spot. Either way, the field pretty much consists of Oklahoma, Oregon and USC. All three of those teams basically need every team currently ahead of them in the BCS standings (outside of OSU) to lose. Highly unlikely, but it could still happen.

With all that being said, I would currently put my money on a WVU v. OSU national title game. I really don't see Oklahoma losing the Big 12 and WVU should definitely win out. Sure, I'm biased because they're the two conferences that I follow the most but still, I would really like to see that game. You never see any good Big East v. Big Ten matchups in football and that would be one heck of a game. One way or the other, nothing in college football is even certain. For all I know Hawaii could end up in the title game...

Long Overdue

I apologize for my lack of blogging as of recent. Blame a hellish week of work and exams for that. I apologize in advance for the absence of frequent updates this weekend -- McDonati is in Bloomington with the Lions, and E and I are out of town. However, I attempt to make my penance with some more college football talk.

First off, did anyone hear about the near-disasterous landing the USC squad had in South Bend? Maybe God really is on the Irish side.

And how about Cinderella's glass slipper shattering last night?

Anyway, last week, the Nittany Lions handed the Wisconsin Badgers a huge, upper-case, bold-faced L, leaving fans scratching their heads for the third-straight week pleading, "Why didn't we do that against Michigan?!" It was a complete role reversal. Suddenly, it was Wisconsin turning over the ball and making silly mistakes and not JoePa's squad. The defense lived up to its end of the bargain once again, holding P.J. Hill to a season low. Man, for somebody who ran into this season with lots of preseason hype, not a lot of talk about him anymore, eh? Anthony Morelli finally looked like a veteran QB and if a play wasn't made, it didn't fall on him. Maybe JoePa was right about his WRs not stepping up and making plays after all... well, at least this week. Yes, Wisconsin was overrated (who called it?!), but this is still a huge win over a ranked team band a great confidence boost.

In a Buy or Sell update, UConn fell to Virginia 17-16 on the road last Saturday, validating my "sell" pick, unless they make an improbable Big East run. I'm now 7-3 on the season for Buy/Sell. Still waiting on Kentucky and Arizona State.

Alright, picks for this weekend.

Florida at Kentucky
Kentucky used up all its magic last week in a thrilling 3-OT victory over LSU last week. A win against Florida keeps them in the SEC East race, but a loss makes South Carolina/Florida the marquee match of the division. The Gators are coming off a 2-game skid and a valuable week of rest, and now they're seeing red. Look for the Wildcats to get chomped in another nailbiter.

LSU at Auburn
Recall that Auburn lost to Sly Croom and Mississippi State at home, 19-14. Also recall that LSU steamrolled M-State on the road 45-0 in the season opener. Yikes. So is the Auburn that lost to USF at home going to show up or the one that shocked Florida in The Swamp? Furthermore, consider that with USF out of the top two, LSU is still well into the thick of the national race. Don't think for a second Les Miles and the fans in Death Valley won't be pumped for this one. LSU takes care of Tommy Tuberville's Auburn team at home.

Tennessee at Alabama
Nick Saban and the Tide have been rolling after two straight losses, but keep in mind that they played Houston and Ole Miss. Tennessee is 1-2 on the road this season, beating M-State last week by 12, but losing to Cal and Kentucky by a combined 53 points. The Tide will roll at home, providing them great momentum into their home date with LSU next week.

Michigan at Illinois
Most people thought Penn State had the best home conference slate in the Big Ten, but my vote would go to Illinois. The Illini welcome their third-straight ranked opponent to Memorial Stadium Saturday, and will chalk up their third win over a ranked opponent at home.

Michigan State at Ohio State
Okay, enough fooling around. MSU had their obligatory win of the season. Time for them to start losing again. Well, okay, maybe that's harsh. MSU and OSU matchups have provided spark in the past, but with this one at home and with OSU's ridiculous defense, the Buckeyes should roll into Happy Valley still the top team in the land.

USC at Notre Dame
Ha! Oh, oops. Sorry. But really, if Booty's out for this one, it could sure get interesting if USC doesn't pull away early. Sharpley has been steadily improving, so it's on the Irish O-line and the defense to make sure this doesn't get ugly.

Texas Tech at Missouri
Missouri has to win this game by outscoring Graham Harrell and the Red Raider offense, because their defense isn't going to win this game for them. Can a defense ranked 100th in passing defense handle Harrell? This one could come down to who scores last, but I think Tech's slightly better defense gives them the edge in this one that ends up having a basketball score.

Buffalo at Syracuse
Bonus pick! This one's gonna be closer than anyone thought at the beginning of the season. Don't look now, but Buffalo's 3-4 and 3-1 in the MAC. Syracuse is a hot-and-cold squad that will shock you one week and disappoint you the next. The disappointments will hit a new low this weekend as Buffalo squeaks by the Orange. Turner Gill becomes the front runner to replace Bill Callahan at Nebraska.

Buy or Sell

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the college football swap meet. We have some traditional powers and early season surprises lined up for you, and our job is to tell you whether you should buy or sell. Keep in mind that the Sagarin ratings include Division 1-A and 1-AA teams. And that the schedule rank is only to date.

Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 9
Wins over Arkansas State (92), TCU (48), Central Florida (60), and Rice (174)
Schedule Rank: 109th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. And sell quickly, if you can. Texas's most impressive victory came against sputtering Rice, while follies against ASU and UCF have not padded the Longhorns' resume. And with K-State rolling into town and the Red River Rivalry shortly after, this is going to be a long two weeks for Mack Brown.

Arizona State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 11
Wins over San Jose State (126), Colorado (58), San Diego State (78), and Oregon State (39)
Schedule Rank: 87th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. This is the 4th team that Dennis Erickson has taken into the top 25 in his career. Think he knows a thing or two about coaching? The Sun Devils have looked impressive, and with Stanford, Wazzu, and Washington next on the roster, we could be looking at a 7-0 Arizona State team in the top 15. And they'll need all the momentum they can get for their next four -- Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and USC. At least the Bears and the Trojans come to Tempe.

Clemson (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 12
Wins over Florida State (25), Louisiana-Monroe (136), Furman (146), and NC State (67)
Schedule Rank: 101st out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Just look at the next two -- Georgia Tech at home, followed by a road trip to Blacksburg. Uh oh. Clemson barely held on by a thread at home in the Bowden Bowl, and their storied end-of-the-season meltdowns fall short to only those by Michigan State. The middle of the schedule doesn't seem so bad, before wrapping up against BC and at South Carolina. Look for BC to edge out the Tigers for the Atlantic Division.

Kentucky (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 13
Wins over Eastern Kentucky (131), Kent State (97), Louisville (63), and Arkansas (33)
Schedule Rank: 86th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. Well, at least for this week, as the Wildcats will roll over Florida Atlantic (who, at 3-1, are a surprise in their own right). Then comes a winnable game at South Carolina, followed by home dates with LSU and Florida. Andre Woodson is a fine senior quarterback, and anyone who can out duel Brian Brohm deserves some props. They surprised many by beating McFadden and company in the Nutt House, including yours truly. Mark it down: Florida at Kentucky will be the game that determines the outcome of the SEC East.

Cincinnati (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 14
Wins over Southeast Missouri State (208), Oregon State (39), Miami-OH (102), and Marshall (134)
Schedule Rank: 149th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. There's room for only one Cinderella in the Big East. The Bearcats played 3 out of their first 4 at home, with the lone road trip to Miami-OH. And the opponents have been less than impressive. The trouncing of the Beavers proved to be clutch, but watch out when Big East action starts in Piscataway. Yikes! Cincy later has to travel to Tampa to wrestle with the Bulls and then West Virginia will come calling.

Wisconsin (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 16
Wins over Washington State (40), UNLV (75), The Citadel (133), and Iowa (43)
Schedule Rank: 77th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. The Badgers apparently like to keep it close. Really close if they're on the road -- say, against UNLV. Even with a primetime win over Iowa under their belt, the Badgers still haven't answered a lot of questions. One question that's sure to be answered after away games at Penn State and at Ohio State and a home date with Michigan is, "Why were these guys in the preseason top 10?"

Missouri (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 19
Wins over Illinois (42), Ole Miss (74), Western Michigan (122), and Illinois State (145)
Schedule Rank: 108th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. The Big 12 North is still up for grabs, and even though Nebraska could still be the front-runner after the USC thumping, there's nothing that says Missouri or K-State still can't snatch it up. The Tigers are idle this week, and they're gonna need their rest -- after the Huskers come to town, Chase Daniel and the gang head out to Norman to face some little team named Oklahoma. The Missouri-Nebraska showdown will determine the early direction of the division.

South Florida (3-0)
Sagarin Rating: 22
Wins over Elon (141), Auburn (38), and North Carolina (84)
Schedule Rank: 93rd out of 242
What do you do? Buy. College football has found its Cinderella this season, and she lives in Tampa. There have been whispers going back to even 2005 about the talent of this South Florida team. We saw a glimpse last season when the Bulls upended West Virginia in Morgantown. Now the Mountaineers travel to Tampa tomorrow to begin conference play, and this one's going to be a doozy. If they pull off another shocker, two of the conference's other three best teams -- Louisville and Cincinnati -- both are at home, but Grothe, et al. will have to face Rutgers on the road. Beating Auburn on the road isn't so easy, you know. South Florida is the new Rutgers.

Purdue (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 23
Wins over Toledo (115), Eastern Illinois (164), Central Michigan (113), and Minnesota (77)
Schedule Rank: 132nd out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Yeah, the Irish are in town this week, but the Buckeyes' impending visit is sure to be a headache for Curtis Painter. I know the Boilermakers keep bringing back the offensive firepower, but the defense is always suspect. How did Minnesota put up 31 on these guys? Plus, Joe Tiller has a history of failing to living up to expectations. Road games in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley loom, too.

Kansas (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 26
Wins over Central Michigan (113), Southeastern Louisiana (190), Toledo (115), and Florida International (160)
Schedule Rank: 177th out of 242 (Eep!)
What do you do? Sell! Please sell! Kinda looks like Purdue's schedule, doesn't it? At least Purdue beat somebody in the top 100... on the road. Kansas hasn't left home, but will do so in two weeks, when they visit Manhattan after a completely undeserved respite. Sure, the Jayhawks will go bowling -- games with Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State could ensure at least .500 -- but even the North division title could be too lofty of a goal.

Connecticut (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 31
Wins over Duke (104), Maine (156), Temple (161) and Pittsburgh (62)
Schedule Rank: 137th out of 242
What do you do? Well, first of all, you giggle because Maine is ranked higher than Temple. Then, you sell the Huskies. Do you think Akron thought UConn would be 4-0 back when they scheduled them? Beating Pitt at Heinz Field is somewhat of an accomplishment, and at least a split isn't unrealistic against Akron and at Virginia, so they could be 5-1 when they resume Big East play. The last six of the year is nothing anybody wants to be put through -- Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, Cincy, Syracuse, and West Virginia. Eep! At least basketball season starts soon.

Michigan State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 34
Wins over UAB (124), Bowling Green (69), Pittsburgh (62), and Notre Dame (114)
What do you do? After you laugh that ND is out of the top 100 (and ranked lower than Bowling Green), you buy the Spartans. Mark Dantonio built a nice little foundation over in Cincinnati, and now he has a chance to make some big changes in a town where John L. Smith messed everything up. A trip to Madison will tell a lot about this Spartan team, but mark my word that they will be at least 6-1 before rolling into Columbus. Michigan and Penn State have to travel to East Lansing. Expect the end-of-the-season slumps to end and a surprising upset to go down.