Buy or Sell verification update

Updating my "buy or sell" tally...

Texas Longhorns (4-2)
What did I say? Sell. Already chalked that one up last week, but the Sooners helped solidify my pick.

Arizona State (6-0)
What did I say? Buy. Barely got by Wazzu to make it six straight. The Huskies and Golden Bears are next.
Verdict: Holding out.

Clemson (4-2)
What did I say? Sell. Clemson loses in a game of Beamer Ball to solidify what I said about the Tigers back when.

Kentucky (5-1)
What did I say? Buy. I said Kentucky would have to post a 2-1 record against Spurrier, Miles, and Meyer to confirm my "buy" pick. They start the stretch 0-1. I also said UK-Florida would be the determining factor in the SEC East race. Oops.
Verdict: Leaning towards a miscue here.

Cincinnati (6-0)
What did I say? Sell. Curses! The Bearcats hung with Rutgers and ran away from Piscataway with a win for my first missed pick.
Verdict: Incorrect, sir.

Wisconsin (5-1)
What did I say? Sell. I rebound with a "sell" pick on the Badgers, who fell on the road to the Illini. PSU and OSU still wait in the wings.
Verdict: I'll give myself credit for this one for now, unless they come back and sweep the Lions and Buckeyes.

Missouri (5-0)
What did I say? Buy. Bing bing! The Tigers destroyed the Huskers at home and now have the inside track in the Big 12 North.
Verdict: Another in my favor.

South Florida (5-0)
What did I say? Buy. Shaky against FAU, but still the Big East favorites with Cincinnati.

Purdue (5-1)
What did I say? Sell. Joe Tiller folds in a marquee game? Who woulda thunk?
Verdict: Ding ding!

Kansas (5-0)
What did I say? Sell. Uhm, oops?
Verdict: Screeeeeeeeeeeeeeech. Crash. Burn.

Connecticut (5-0)
What did I say? Sell. My bad, Virginia took on Middle Tennessee this week. The Huskies were off and will play at Virginia next week.
Verdict: Waiting on UConn-UVA.

Michigan State (4-2)
What did I say? Buy. Well, they won't be 6-1 rolling into Columbus thanks to a win in OT by Northwestern.
Verdict: Another crash and burn.

So I go from 3-0 last week to 6-3, with 3 teams still in limbo (Arizona State, Kentucky, and Connecticut). Leaning towards a missed pick on UK, though. We'll know by next week. I'd be more than happy with 8-4 for my first go around, just like Joe Paterno would be.

Buy or Sell Verification

As a scientist, it's almost impossible for me to let a hypothesis go without verifying my results. So, with that said, let's see how I did on my first "buy or sell" extravaganza...

Texas Longhorns (4-1)
What did I say? Sell. And I was right. The Longhorns got steamrolled at home by K-State, exposing the first set of many pretenders. A loss to the Sooners this weekend in Dallas would solidify it.
Verdict: That's one for me.

Arizona State (5-0)
What did I say? Buy. I said the Sun Devils would be 7-0 before their home date with the Golden Bears. They hit 5-0, but they played Stanford. The Shady Acres Retirement Home could beat Stanford. Notre Dame could bea... well, let's hold off on that one.
Verdict: Let's wait and see what happens in Tempe in two or three weeks.

Clemson (4-1)
What did I say? Sell. First of all, I misread the Tigers' schedule and said they got GTech at home, followed by VTech in Blacksburg. That's not the case. Their game with the Hornets was in Atlanta, and now the Hokies come to Clemson. However, one thing I didn't mess up is the fact that Clemson folded against Georgia Tech, putting up only a field goal in the process. We'll see if Clemson's in classic meltdown phase this weekend against Frank Beamer.
Verdict: Chalk another one up for me.

Kentucky (5-0)
What did I say? Buy. The Wildcats rolled over Florida Atlantic, as predicted, but that clearly doesn't bring down a verdict. Kentucky will be dragged through hell the next three weeks, at South Carolina, vs. LSU, and vs. Florida. Posting a 2-1 record against those three would solidify a "buy" for me.
Verdict: Jury's still out.

Cincinnati (5-0)
What did I say? Sell. The Bearcats played a nobody in SDSU, but Big East play starts this weekend in Piscataway against some angry Scarlet Knights. Watch out!
Verdict: A loss to the Scarlet Knights would be the telltale.

Wisconsin (5-0)
What did I say? Sell. As predicted, they kept it close with MSU. The month of October will decide the fate of this Wisconsin squad, as road trips to Champaign, Happy Valley and Columbus still loom.
Verdict: A 2-1 record against Illinois, Penn State, and Ohio State would be enough for me to forfeit this one.

Missouri (4-0)
What did I say? Buy. The Tigers had a bye this week, but watch out when the Huskers roll into town.
Verdict: The outcome of the Nebraska game would be enough to verify my guess.

South Florida (4-0)
What did I say? Buy. Did you watch last Thursday night? The Bulls are suddenly the Big East favorites.
Verdict: A resounding win for me on this one.

Purdue (5-0)
What did I say? Sell. So they beat Notre Dame. Big whoop. The real test is this weekend in primetime against Ohio State. If they lose to the Buckeyes, we'll see that Joe Tiller's bunch is probably another bunch of pretenders.
Verdict: Still waiting on results from West Lafayette.

Kansas (4-0)
What did I say? Sell. The Jayhawks were off this week, but travel to Manhattan to take on K-State. If they lose this one, they're toast.
Verdict: Waiting on Kansas/K-State.

Connecticut (5-0)
What did I say? Sell. I did, say, however, that the Huskies would resume Big East play at 5-1. They got at least the split I predicted with Akron and Virginia. Let's see how they play against the Cavs on the road.
Verdict: The road date with Virginia looms.

Michigan State (4-1)
What did I say? Buy. This is one where I was a little shaky. I said the game in Madison would be a big test, and the Spartans came up just short. I did say they'd be at least 6-1 before their date with OSU in Columbus. If they don't end up 6-1 or drop the game to the Buckeyes, I'll take the hit.
Verdict: Must win the next two and the one with the Buckeyes to be legit.

So far, looks like I'm 3-0 out of 12, with some big games looming. However, the validity of my Wisconsin and MSU predictions may turn out shaky. We'll know by the end of October where these teams stand.

Buy or Sell

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the college football swap meet. We have some traditional powers and early season surprises lined up for you, and our job is to tell you whether you should buy or sell. Keep in mind that the Sagarin ratings include Division 1-A and 1-AA teams. And that the schedule rank is only to date.

Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 9
Wins over Arkansas State (92), TCU (48), Central Florida (60), and Rice (174)
Schedule Rank: 109th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. And sell quickly, if you can. Texas's most impressive victory came against sputtering Rice, while follies against ASU and UCF have not padded the Longhorns' resume. And with K-State rolling into town and the Red River Rivalry shortly after, this is going to be a long two weeks for Mack Brown.

Arizona State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 11
Wins over San Jose State (126), Colorado (58), San Diego State (78), and Oregon State (39)
Schedule Rank: 87th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. This is the 4th team that Dennis Erickson has taken into the top 25 in his career. Think he knows a thing or two about coaching? The Sun Devils have looked impressive, and with Stanford, Wazzu, and Washington next on the roster, we could be looking at a 7-0 Arizona State team in the top 15. And they'll need all the momentum they can get for their next four -- Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and USC. At least the Bears and the Trojans come to Tempe.

Clemson (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 12
Wins over Florida State (25), Louisiana-Monroe (136), Furman (146), and NC State (67)
Schedule Rank: 101st out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Just look at the next two -- Georgia Tech at home, followed by a road trip to Blacksburg. Uh oh. Clemson barely held on by a thread at home in the Bowden Bowl, and their storied end-of-the-season meltdowns fall short to only those by Michigan State. The middle of the schedule doesn't seem so bad, before wrapping up against BC and at South Carolina. Look for BC to edge out the Tigers for the Atlantic Division.

Kentucky (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 13
Wins over Eastern Kentucky (131), Kent State (97), Louisville (63), and Arkansas (33)
Schedule Rank: 86th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. Well, at least for this week, as the Wildcats will roll over Florida Atlantic (who, at 3-1, are a surprise in their own right). Then comes a winnable game at South Carolina, followed by home dates with LSU and Florida. Andre Woodson is a fine senior quarterback, and anyone who can out duel Brian Brohm deserves some props. They surprised many by beating McFadden and company in the Nutt House, including yours truly. Mark it down: Florida at Kentucky will be the game that determines the outcome of the SEC East.

Cincinnati (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 14
Wins over Southeast Missouri State (208), Oregon State (39), Miami-OH (102), and Marshall (134)
Schedule Rank: 149th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. There's room for only one Cinderella in the Big East. The Bearcats played 3 out of their first 4 at home, with the lone road trip to Miami-OH. And the opponents have been less than impressive. The trouncing of the Beavers proved to be clutch, but watch out when Big East action starts in Piscataway. Yikes! Cincy later has to travel to Tampa to wrestle with the Bulls and then West Virginia will come calling.

Wisconsin (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 16
Wins over Washington State (40), UNLV (75), The Citadel (133), and Iowa (43)
Schedule Rank: 77th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. The Badgers apparently like to keep it close. Really close if they're on the road -- say, against UNLV. Even with a primetime win over Iowa under their belt, the Badgers still haven't answered a lot of questions. One question that's sure to be answered after away games at Penn State and at Ohio State and a home date with Michigan is, "Why were these guys in the preseason top 10?"

Missouri (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 19
Wins over Illinois (42), Ole Miss (74), Western Michigan (122), and Illinois State (145)
Schedule Rank: 108th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. The Big 12 North is still up for grabs, and even though Nebraska could still be the front-runner after the USC thumping, there's nothing that says Missouri or K-State still can't snatch it up. The Tigers are idle this week, and they're gonna need their rest -- after the Huskers come to town, Chase Daniel and the gang head out to Norman to face some little team named Oklahoma. The Missouri-Nebraska showdown will determine the early direction of the division.

South Florida (3-0)
Sagarin Rating: 22
Wins over Elon (141), Auburn (38), and North Carolina (84)
Schedule Rank: 93rd out of 242
What do you do? Buy. College football has found its Cinderella this season, and she lives in Tampa. There have been whispers going back to even 2005 about the talent of this South Florida team. We saw a glimpse last season when the Bulls upended West Virginia in Morgantown. Now the Mountaineers travel to Tampa tomorrow to begin conference play, and this one's going to be a doozy. If they pull off another shocker, two of the conference's other three best teams -- Louisville and Cincinnati -- both are at home, but Grothe, et al. will have to face Rutgers on the road. Beating Auburn on the road isn't so easy, you know. South Florida is the new Rutgers.

Purdue (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 23
Wins over Toledo (115), Eastern Illinois (164), Central Michigan (113), and Minnesota (77)
Schedule Rank: 132nd out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Yeah, the Irish are in town this week, but the Buckeyes' impending visit is sure to be a headache for Curtis Painter. I know the Boilermakers keep bringing back the offensive firepower, but the defense is always suspect. How did Minnesota put up 31 on these guys? Plus, Joe Tiller has a history of failing to living up to expectations. Road games in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley loom, too.

Kansas (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 26
Wins over Central Michigan (113), Southeastern Louisiana (190), Toledo (115), and Florida International (160)
Schedule Rank: 177th out of 242 (Eep!)
What do you do? Sell! Please sell! Kinda looks like Purdue's schedule, doesn't it? At least Purdue beat somebody in the top 100... on the road. Kansas hasn't left home, but will do so in two weeks, when they visit Manhattan after a completely undeserved respite. Sure, the Jayhawks will go bowling -- games with Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State could ensure at least .500 -- but even the North division title could be too lofty of a goal.

Connecticut (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 31
Wins over Duke (104), Maine (156), Temple (161) and Pittsburgh (62)
Schedule Rank: 137th out of 242
What do you do? Well, first of all, you giggle because Maine is ranked higher than Temple. Then, you sell the Huskies. Do you think Akron thought UConn would be 4-0 back when they scheduled them? Beating Pitt at Heinz Field is somewhat of an accomplishment, and at least a split isn't unrealistic against Akron and at Virginia, so they could be 5-1 when they resume Big East play. The last six of the year is nothing anybody wants to be put through -- Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, Cincy, Syracuse, and West Virginia. Eep! At least basketball season starts soon.

Michigan State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 34
Wins over UAB (124), Bowling Green (69), Pittsburgh (62), and Notre Dame (114)
What do you do? After you laugh that ND is out of the top 100 (and ranked lower than Bowling Green), you buy the Spartans. Mark Dantonio built a nice little foundation over in Cincinnati, and now he has a chance to make some big changes in a town where John L. Smith messed everything up. A trip to Madison will tell a lot about this Spartan team, but mark my word that they will be at least 6-1 before rolling into Columbus. Michigan and Penn State have to travel to East Lansing. Expect the end-of-the-season slumps to end and a surprising upset to go down.