Long Overdue

I apologize for my lack of blogging as of recent. Blame a hellish week of work and exams for that. I apologize in advance for the absence of frequent updates this weekend -- McDonati is in Bloomington with the Lions, and E and I are out of town. However, I attempt to make my penance with some more college football talk.

First off, did anyone hear about the near-disasterous landing the USC squad had in South Bend? Maybe God really is on the Irish side.

And how about Cinderella's glass slipper shattering last night?

Anyway, last week, the Nittany Lions handed the Wisconsin Badgers a huge, upper-case, bold-faced L, leaving fans scratching their heads for the third-straight week pleading, "Why didn't we do that against Michigan?!" It was a complete role reversal. Suddenly, it was Wisconsin turning over the ball and making silly mistakes and not JoePa's squad. The defense lived up to its end of the bargain once again, holding P.J. Hill to a season low. Man, for somebody who ran into this season with lots of preseason hype, not a lot of talk about him anymore, eh? Anthony Morelli finally looked like a veteran QB and if a play wasn't made, it didn't fall on him. Maybe JoePa was right about his WRs not stepping up and making plays after all... well, at least this week. Yes, Wisconsin was overrated (who called it?!), but this is still a huge win over a ranked team band a great confidence boost.

In a Buy or Sell update, UConn fell to Virginia 17-16 on the road last Saturday, validating my "sell" pick, unless they make an improbable Big East run. I'm now 7-3 on the season for Buy/Sell. Still waiting on Kentucky and Arizona State.

Alright, picks for this weekend.

Florida at Kentucky
Kentucky used up all its magic last week in a thrilling 3-OT victory over LSU last week. A win against Florida keeps them in the SEC East race, but a loss makes South Carolina/Florida the marquee match of the division. The Gators are coming off a 2-game skid and a valuable week of rest, and now they're seeing red. Look for the Wildcats to get chomped in another nailbiter.

LSU at Auburn
Recall that Auburn lost to Sly Croom and Mississippi State at home, 19-14. Also recall that LSU steamrolled M-State on the road 45-0 in the season opener. Yikes. So is the Auburn that lost to USF at home going to show up or the one that shocked Florida in The Swamp? Furthermore, consider that with USF out of the top two, LSU is still well into the thick of the national race. Don't think for a second Les Miles and the fans in Death Valley won't be pumped for this one. LSU takes care of Tommy Tuberville's Auburn team at home.

Tennessee at Alabama
Nick Saban and the Tide have been rolling after two straight losses, but keep in mind that they played Houston and Ole Miss. Tennessee is 1-2 on the road this season, beating M-State last week by 12, but losing to Cal and Kentucky by a combined 53 points. The Tide will roll at home, providing them great momentum into their home date with LSU next week.

Michigan at Illinois
Most people thought Penn State had the best home conference slate in the Big Ten, but my vote would go to Illinois. The Illini welcome their third-straight ranked opponent to Memorial Stadium Saturday, and will chalk up their third win over a ranked opponent at home.

Michigan State at Ohio State
Okay, enough fooling around. MSU had their obligatory win of the season. Time for them to start losing again. Well, okay, maybe that's harsh. MSU and OSU matchups have provided spark in the past, but with this one at home and with OSU's ridiculous defense, the Buckeyes should roll into Happy Valley still the top team in the land.

USC at Notre Dame
Ha! Oh, oops. Sorry. But really, if Booty's out for this one, it could sure get interesting if USC doesn't pull away early. Sharpley has been steadily improving, so it's on the Irish O-line and the defense to make sure this doesn't get ugly.

Texas Tech at Missouri
Missouri has to win this game by outscoring Graham Harrell and the Red Raider offense, because their defense isn't going to win this game for them. Can a defense ranked 100th in passing defense handle Harrell? This one could come down to who scores last, but I think Tech's slightly better defense gives them the edge in this one that ends up having a basketball score.

Buffalo at Syracuse
Bonus pick! This one's gonna be closer than anyone thought at the beginning of the season. Don't look now, but Buffalo's 3-4 and 3-1 in the MAC. Syracuse is a hot-and-cold squad that will shock you one week and disappoint you the next. The disappointments will hit a new low this weekend as Buffalo squeaks by the Orange. Turner Gill becomes the front runner to replace Bill Callahan at Nebraska.

Buy or Sell

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the college football swap meet. We have some traditional powers and early season surprises lined up for you, and our job is to tell you whether you should buy or sell. Keep in mind that the Sagarin ratings include Division 1-A and 1-AA teams. And that the schedule rank is only to date.

Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 9
Wins over Arkansas State (92), TCU (48), Central Florida (60), and Rice (174)
Schedule Rank: 109th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. And sell quickly, if you can. Texas's most impressive victory came against sputtering Rice, while follies against ASU and UCF have not padded the Longhorns' resume. And with K-State rolling into town and the Red River Rivalry shortly after, this is going to be a long two weeks for Mack Brown.

Arizona State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 11
Wins over San Jose State (126), Colorado (58), San Diego State (78), and Oregon State (39)
Schedule Rank: 87th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. This is the 4th team that Dennis Erickson has taken into the top 25 in his career. Think he knows a thing or two about coaching? The Sun Devils have looked impressive, and with Stanford, Wazzu, and Washington next on the roster, we could be looking at a 7-0 Arizona State team in the top 15. And they'll need all the momentum they can get for their next four -- Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and USC. At least the Bears and the Trojans come to Tempe.

Clemson (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 12
Wins over Florida State (25), Louisiana-Monroe (136), Furman (146), and NC State (67)
Schedule Rank: 101st out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Just look at the next two -- Georgia Tech at home, followed by a road trip to Blacksburg. Uh oh. Clemson barely held on by a thread at home in the Bowden Bowl, and their storied end-of-the-season meltdowns fall short to only those by Michigan State. The middle of the schedule doesn't seem so bad, before wrapping up against BC and at South Carolina. Look for BC to edge out the Tigers for the Atlantic Division.

Kentucky (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 13
Wins over Eastern Kentucky (131), Kent State (97), Louisville (63), and Arkansas (33)
Schedule Rank: 86th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. Well, at least for this week, as the Wildcats will roll over Florida Atlantic (who, at 3-1, are a surprise in their own right). Then comes a winnable game at South Carolina, followed by home dates with LSU and Florida. Andre Woodson is a fine senior quarterback, and anyone who can out duel Brian Brohm deserves some props. They surprised many by beating McFadden and company in the Nutt House, including yours truly. Mark it down: Florida at Kentucky will be the game that determines the outcome of the SEC East.

Cincinnati (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 14
Wins over Southeast Missouri State (208), Oregon State (39), Miami-OH (102), and Marshall (134)
Schedule Rank: 149th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. There's room for only one Cinderella in the Big East. The Bearcats played 3 out of their first 4 at home, with the lone road trip to Miami-OH. And the opponents have been less than impressive. The trouncing of the Beavers proved to be clutch, but watch out when Big East action starts in Piscataway. Yikes! Cincy later has to travel to Tampa to wrestle with the Bulls and then West Virginia will come calling.

Wisconsin (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 16
Wins over Washington State (40), UNLV (75), The Citadel (133), and Iowa (43)
Schedule Rank: 77th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. The Badgers apparently like to keep it close. Really close if they're on the road -- say, against UNLV. Even with a primetime win over Iowa under their belt, the Badgers still haven't answered a lot of questions. One question that's sure to be answered after away games at Penn State and at Ohio State and a home date with Michigan is, "Why were these guys in the preseason top 10?"

Missouri (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 19
Wins over Illinois (42), Ole Miss (74), Western Michigan (122), and Illinois State (145)
Schedule Rank: 108th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. The Big 12 North is still up for grabs, and even though Nebraska could still be the front-runner after the USC thumping, there's nothing that says Missouri or K-State still can't snatch it up. The Tigers are idle this week, and they're gonna need their rest -- after the Huskers come to town, Chase Daniel and the gang head out to Norman to face some little team named Oklahoma. The Missouri-Nebraska showdown will determine the early direction of the division.

South Florida (3-0)
Sagarin Rating: 22
Wins over Elon (141), Auburn (38), and North Carolina (84)
Schedule Rank: 93rd out of 242
What do you do? Buy. College football has found its Cinderella this season, and she lives in Tampa. There have been whispers going back to even 2005 about the talent of this South Florida team. We saw a glimpse last season when the Bulls upended West Virginia in Morgantown. Now the Mountaineers travel to Tampa tomorrow to begin conference play, and this one's going to be a doozy. If they pull off another shocker, two of the conference's other three best teams -- Louisville and Cincinnati -- both are at home, but Grothe, et al. will have to face Rutgers on the road. Beating Auburn on the road isn't so easy, you know. South Florida is the new Rutgers.

Purdue (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 23
Wins over Toledo (115), Eastern Illinois (164), Central Michigan (113), and Minnesota (77)
Schedule Rank: 132nd out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Yeah, the Irish are in town this week, but the Buckeyes' impending visit is sure to be a headache for Curtis Painter. I know the Boilermakers keep bringing back the offensive firepower, but the defense is always suspect. How did Minnesota put up 31 on these guys? Plus, Joe Tiller has a history of failing to living up to expectations. Road games in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley loom, too.

Kansas (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 26
Wins over Central Michigan (113), Southeastern Louisiana (190), Toledo (115), and Florida International (160)
Schedule Rank: 177th out of 242 (Eep!)
What do you do? Sell! Please sell! Kinda looks like Purdue's schedule, doesn't it? At least Purdue beat somebody in the top 100... on the road. Kansas hasn't left home, but will do so in two weeks, when they visit Manhattan after a completely undeserved respite. Sure, the Jayhawks will go bowling -- games with Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State could ensure at least .500 -- but even the North division title could be too lofty of a goal.

Connecticut (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 31
Wins over Duke (104), Maine (156), Temple (161) and Pittsburgh (62)
Schedule Rank: 137th out of 242
What do you do? Well, first of all, you giggle because Maine is ranked higher than Temple. Then, you sell the Huskies. Do you think Akron thought UConn would be 4-0 back when they scheduled them? Beating Pitt at Heinz Field is somewhat of an accomplishment, and at least a split isn't unrealistic against Akron and at Virginia, so they could be 5-1 when they resume Big East play. The last six of the year is nothing anybody wants to be put through -- Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, Cincy, Syracuse, and West Virginia. Eep! At least basketball season starts soon.

Michigan State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 34
Wins over UAB (124), Bowling Green (69), Pittsburgh (62), and Notre Dame (114)
What do you do? After you laugh that ND is out of the top 100 (and ranked lower than Bowling Green), you buy the Spartans. Mark Dantonio built a nice little foundation over in Cincinnati, and now he has a chance to make some big changes in a town where John L. Smith messed everything up. A trip to Madison will tell a lot about this Spartan team, but mark my word that they will be at least 6-1 before rolling into Columbus. Michigan and Penn State have to travel to East Lansing. Expect the end-of-the-season slumps to end and a surprising upset to go down.

This week in the SEC

EEW briefly touched on these with his picks, but let's talk some SEC.

South Carolina at LSU
Why it's important: A Steve Spurrier win in Death Valley would solidify the Gamecock renaissance that the Ol' Ball Coach has been talking up since he landed at South Carolina -- not to mention Lee Corso would be eating a big, steaming bowl of crow. But let's not get ahead of ourselves here. They're still playing the #2 ranked team in the country on the road, and without their marching band! (Apparently travel expenses are too high.)
Important Stat: In total, LSU's defense has allowed 7 points to be scored in three games against very decent teams -- Mississippi State, Virginia Tech, and Middle Tennessee. LSU's offense has been stepping all over opposing defenses. The Gamecock defense is no joke, though. Remember that they held Matthew Stafford and company to 12 points at Georgia.
The Edge: Clearly, it's LSU. Matt Flynn and the high-powered LSU offense might not steamroll over the Gamecocks, but their out-of-this-world defense will ensure that the Tigers retain a comfortable lead throughout.

Georgia at Alabama
Why it's important: Alabama makes a huge jump into the ratings following a nearly disastrous 3-point victory over Arkansas ... because they're Alabama. Nick Saban can silence the last of the naysayers by going 5-0 and defeating his second consecutive ranked conference opponent. The jury's out on Matthew Stafford and the Bulldogs. They came in with great expectations this year, only to be thwarted at home by South Carolina. They may be looking to prove they can still play ball.
Important Stat: 31-10. That's the score Alabama led over Arkansas before watching it slip through their hands like sand by the fourth quarter. The Razorbacks scored 28 unanswered to make it 38-31, but Nick Saban's squad scored 10 more in the last eight minutes -- including a touchdown with eight seconds left -- to notch the victory.
The Edge: This could go either way, really. Alabama's finishing ability is questionable, but the Georgia offense hasn't been impressive against a decent opponent yet. The advantage goes to the Tide, since this game's in Tuscaloosa.

Kentucky at Arkansas
Why it's important: Kentucky's back in the top 25 after everyone and their brother knew they'd rip up the Louisville D. Now it's onto conference play, where they must travel to the Nutt House and find a way to stop Heisman hopeful Darren McFadden in his tracks. Their D really, really needs to step it up if they want to be competitive in this game.
Important Stat: Darren McFadden rushed for 195 yards in the loss against Alabama this week. Need I say more?
The Edge: Arkansas gets this game at home, where they'll be anxious to jump back into the poll. Darren McFadden is probably a little bit too quick for the Kentucky D, and is sure to have another Heisman resume padding day. Look for Arkansas to win this one.

Thanksgiving

Dear Kentucky and Utah,

Thank you for defeating #9 Louisville and #11 UCLA, respectively. Your wins are wonderful. They will certainly vault us into the Top 10...even though, after today, we don't deserve it. Thanks again.

Penn State football team