FCS Overdose

Say what you will about Penn State's strength of schedule, but...

I was reading Stewart Mandel's article on SI.com about the August LSU-App St. matchup, the first ever between two reigning national champions, when Mandel brought up a rather sad and startling revelation.

Two respected ACC programs, Florida State and Clemson, have scheduled two FCS (AKA 1-AA) non-conference matchups.

According to their CSTV.com schedules, the Seminoles begin their season in Tallahassee against Western Carolina and Chattanooga and the Tigers will welcome two South Carolina universities, The Citadel and South Carolina State. (I see they've adopted Ohio State's strategy of winning the "state championship.")

Now, you can always go on to tell me that FSU and Clemson have their annual SEC battles with Florida and South Carolina, respectively... and that Colorado is flying to Jacksonville or that the Tigers are tussling with Nick Saban's Alabama squad in the Georgia Dome.

But honestly, two FCS opponents? What, was Florida International not available?

A lot of people griped about Hawaii's weak non-conference schedule last year, which incidentally also featured two FCS teams, Northern Colorado and Charleston-Southern. But at least Hawaii has an excuse since it's ridiculously difficult to feasibly get a decent FBS team to fly out to Honolulu for a weekend. That's understandable. But are teams really having a tough time finding the states of Florida or South Carolina? Or are things getting so bad in the ACC that athletic directors need to significantly pad their schedules?

Yes, Penn State opens their 2008 campaign with Coastal Carolina, but we follow with 10-4 Oregon State and Syracuse, a BCS opponent we scheduled several years ago. Yeah, Temple rounds out the non-conference slate, but at least they're a MAC (aka 1-A) team. Al Golden is making some pretty nice strides in Philly, too. At least we're not double dipping into the FCS pool.

NCAA Division 1-A Simulated Tournament: Round 1, Part 1 Results

NOTES: If you have no idea what this is about, read this first. Statistics are for team leaders.

Besides the play-in game between Tennessee and Boise State, I also simulated four games from the first round. The results for these games are below. By Saturday (12/8/07) Round 1, Part 2 should be finished and the results, along with Round 1 awards, will be posted. I hope to finish Round 2 by Sunday (12/9/07). As anticipated, upsets will happen...

16 Tennessee vs 1 Ohio State
Round 1, Game 1 Results

Final Score
36-21, Tennessee

Game Statistics

Passing
Todd Boeckman, Ohio State - 14 of 30, 206 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs
Erik Ainge, Tennessee - 15 of 29, 262 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTS

Rushing
Maurice Wells, Ohio State - 17 rushes, 92 yards, 0 TDs, 1 fumble
Jakouri Williams, Tennessee - 18 rushes, 80 yards, 1 TD, 2 fumbles

Receiving
Brian Hartline, Ohio State - 5 catches, 108 yards, 1 TD, 2 drops
Kenny O'Neal, Tennessee - 8 catches, 156 yards, 0 TDs, 2 drops

Defensive
Jamario O'Neal, Ohio State - 15 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT
Andre Mathis, Tennessee - 11 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT

Kicking

Aaron Pettrey, Ohio State - 0 FGs made, 0 FGs attempted
Daniel Lincoln, Tennessee - 3 FGs made, 3 FGs attempted

9 Florida vs 8 Hawaii
Round 1, Game 2 Results

Final Score
45-21, Florida

Game Statistics

Passing
Colt Brennan, Hawaii - 29 of 55, 453 yards, 3 TDs, 6INTs
Tim Tebow, Florida - 16 of 30, 364 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT

Rushing
Colt Brenna, Hawaii - 12 rushes, 59 yards, 0 TDs, 0 fumbles
Tim Tebow, Florida - 16 rushes, 86 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble

Receiving
Ryan Grice-Mullen, Hawaii - 12 catches, 190 yards, 2 TDs, 0 drops
Andre Caldwell, Florida - 7 catches, 145 yards, 2 TDs, 1 drop

Defensive
Michael Lafaele, Hawaii - 8 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INTs
Derrick Harvey, Florida - 8 tackles, 1 sack, 0 INTs

Kicking

Dan Kelly, Hawaii - 0 FGs made, 0 FGs attempted
Joey Ijjas, Florida - 1 FG made, 3 FGs attempted

10 Missouri vs 7 USC
Round 1, Game 3 Results

Final Score
37-34, USC

Game Statistics

Passing
Chase Daniel, Missouri - 21 of 36, 272 yards, 1 TDs, 1 INT
John David Booty, USC - 17 of 29, 255 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTS

Rushing
Marcus Woods, Missouri - 17 rushes, 46 yards, 2 TDs, 1 fumble
Joe McKnight, USC - 37 rushes, 259 yards, 3 TDs, 1 fumble

Receiving
Jared Perry, Missouri - 9 catches, 117 yards, 1 TD, 1 drop
Vidal Hazleton, USC - 7 catches, 144 yards, 1 TD, 1 drop

Defensive
Tommy Chavis, Missouri - 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INTs
Chris Barrett, Tennessee - 8 tackles, 2 sacks, 0 INTs

Kicking

Jeff Wolfert, Missouri - 2 FGs made, 2 FGs attempted
David Buehler, USC - 3 FGs made, 3 FGs attempted

15 Clemson vs 2 LSU
Round 1, Game 4 Results

Final Score
41-38 (2 OTs), LSU

Game Statistics

Passing
Cullen Harper, Clemson - 15 of 23, 293 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
Matt Flynn, LSU - 17 of 35, 293 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTS

Rushing
C.J. Spiller, Clemson - 20 rushes, 100 yards, 0 TDs, 2 fumbles
Keiland Williams, LSU - 29 rushes, 123 yards, 2 TDs, 0 fumbles

Receiving
Jacoby Ford, Clemson - 10 catches, 202 yards, 3 TDs, 4 drops
Trindon Holliday, LSU - 3 catches, 80 yards, 1 TD, 0 drops

Defensive
Phillip Merling, Clemson - 7 tackles, 1 sack, 0 INTs
Luke Sanders, LSU - 10 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INTs

Kicking

Richard Jackson, Clemson - 1 FG made, 4 FGs attempted
Colt David, LSU - 2 FGs made, 2 FGs attempted

So there you have it. Tennessee upsets Ohio State at the Horseshoe in the first game of the tournament (excluding play-in). Tennessee is now 2-0 (Ws vs Boise State and Ohio State) and will play Florida in Gainesville. An SEC showdown. The other Round 2 matchup that has been determined will be USC visiting Baton Rouge to take on LSU. Two great matchups set for Round 2. Two more to be determined by Saturday. Stay tuned.

P.S. - Isn't it funny that LSU won in OT? I guess those two 3 OT losses earlier in the year have finally paid off ;-)

Buy or Sell

Yes, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the college football swap meet. We have some traditional powers and early season surprises lined up for you, and our job is to tell you whether you should buy or sell. Keep in mind that the Sagarin ratings include Division 1-A and 1-AA teams. And that the schedule rank is only to date.

Texas Longhorns (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 9
Wins over Arkansas State (92), TCU (48), Central Florida (60), and Rice (174)
Schedule Rank: 109th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. And sell quickly, if you can. Texas's most impressive victory came against sputtering Rice, while follies against ASU and UCF have not padded the Longhorns' resume. And with K-State rolling into town and the Red River Rivalry shortly after, this is going to be a long two weeks for Mack Brown.

Arizona State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 11
Wins over San Jose State (126), Colorado (58), San Diego State (78), and Oregon State (39)
Schedule Rank: 87th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. This is the 4th team that Dennis Erickson has taken into the top 25 in his career. Think he knows a thing or two about coaching? The Sun Devils have looked impressive, and with Stanford, Wazzu, and Washington next on the roster, we could be looking at a 7-0 Arizona State team in the top 15. And they'll need all the momentum they can get for their next four -- Cal, Oregon, UCLA, and USC. At least the Bears and the Trojans come to Tempe.

Clemson (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 12
Wins over Florida State (25), Louisiana-Monroe (136), Furman (146), and NC State (67)
Schedule Rank: 101st out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Just look at the next two -- Georgia Tech at home, followed by a road trip to Blacksburg. Uh oh. Clemson barely held on by a thread at home in the Bowden Bowl, and their storied end-of-the-season meltdowns fall short to only those by Michigan State. The middle of the schedule doesn't seem so bad, before wrapping up against BC and at South Carolina. Look for BC to edge out the Tigers for the Atlantic Division.

Kentucky (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 13
Wins over Eastern Kentucky (131), Kent State (97), Louisville (63), and Arkansas (33)
Schedule Rank: 86th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. Well, at least for this week, as the Wildcats will roll over Florida Atlantic (who, at 3-1, are a surprise in their own right). Then comes a winnable game at South Carolina, followed by home dates with LSU and Florida. Andre Woodson is a fine senior quarterback, and anyone who can out duel Brian Brohm deserves some props. They surprised many by beating McFadden and company in the Nutt House, including yours truly. Mark it down: Florida at Kentucky will be the game that determines the outcome of the SEC East.

Cincinnati (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 14
Wins over Southeast Missouri State (208), Oregon State (39), Miami-OH (102), and Marshall (134)
Schedule Rank: 149th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. There's room for only one Cinderella in the Big East. The Bearcats played 3 out of their first 4 at home, with the lone road trip to Miami-OH. And the opponents have been less than impressive. The trouncing of the Beavers proved to be clutch, but watch out when Big East action starts in Piscataway. Yikes! Cincy later has to travel to Tampa to wrestle with the Bulls and then West Virginia will come calling.

Wisconsin (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 16
Wins over Washington State (40), UNLV (75), The Citadel (133), and Iowa (43)
Schedule Rank: 77th out of 242
What do you do? Sell. The Badgers apparently like to keep it close. Really close if they're on the road -- say, against UNLV. Even with a primetime win over Iowa under their belt, the Badgers still haven't answered a lot of questions. One question that's sure to be answered after away games at Penn State and at Ohio State and a home date with Michigan is, "Why were these guys in the preseason top 10?"

Missouri (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 19
Wins over Illinois (42), Ole Miss (74), Western Michigan (122), and Illinois State (145)
Schedule Rank: 108th out of 242
What do you do? Buy. The Big 12 North is still up for grabs, and even though Nebraska could still be the front-runner after the USC thumping, there's nothing that says Missouri or K-State still can't snatch it up. The Tigers are idle this week, and they're gonna need their rest -- after the Huskers come to town, Chase Daniel and the gang head out to Norman to face some little team named Oklahoma. The Missouri-Nebraska showdown will determine the early direction of the division.

South Florida (3-0)
Sagarin Rating: 22
Wins over Elon (141), Auburn (38), and North Carolina (84)
Schedule Rank: 93rd out of 242
What do you do? Buy. College football has found its Cinderella this season, and she lives in Tampa. There have been whispers going back to even 2005 about the talent of this South Florida team. We saw a glimpse last season when the Bulls upended West Virginia in Morgantown. Now the Mountaineers travel to Tampa tomorrow to begin conference play, and this one's going to be a doozy. If they pull off another shocker, two of the conference's other three best teams -- Louisville and Cincinnati -- both are at home, but Grothe, et al. will have to face Rutgers on the road. Beating Auburn on the road isn't so easy, you know. South Florida is the new Rutgers.

Purdue (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 23
Wins over Toledo (115), Eastern Illinois (164), Central Michigan (113), and Minnesota (77)
Schedule Rank: 132nd out of 242
What do you do? Sell. Yeah, the Irish are in town this week, but the Buckeyes' impending visit is sure to be a headache for Curtis Painter. I know the Boilermakers keep bringing back the offensive firepower, but the defense is always suspect. How did Minnesota put up 31 on these guys? Plus, Joe Tiller has a history of failing to living up to expectations. Road games in Ann Arbor and Happy Valley loom, too.

Kansas (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 26
Wins over Central Michigan (113), Southeastern Louisiana (190), Toledo (115), and Florida International (160)
Schedule Rank: 177th out of 242 (Eep!)
What do you do? Sell! Please sell! Kinda looks like Purdue's schedule, doesn't it? At least Purdue beat somebody in the top 100... on the road. Kansas hasn't left home, but will do so in two weeks, when they visit Manhattan after a completely undeserved respite. Sure, the Jayhawks will go bowling -- games with Baylor, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State could ensure at least .500 -- but even the North division title could be too lofty of a goal.

Connecticut (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 31
Wins over Duke (104), Maine (156), Temple (161) and Pittsburgh (62)
Schedule Rank: 137th out of 242
What do you do? Well, first of all, you giggle because Maine is ranked higher than Temple. Then, you sell the Huskies. Do you think Akron thought UConn would be 4-0 back when they scheduled them? Beating Pitt at Heinz Field is somewhat of an accomplishment, and at least a split isn't unrealistic against Akron and at Virginia, so they could be 5-1 when they resume Big East play. The last six of the year is nothing anybody wants to be put through -- Louisville, South Florida, Rutgers, Cincy, Syracuse, and West Virginia. Eep! At least basketball season starts soon.

Michigan State (4-0)
Sagarin Rating: 34
Wins over UAB (124), Bowling Green (69), Pittsburgh (62), and Notre Dame (114)
What do you do? After you laugh that ND is out of the top 100 (and ranked lower than Bowling Green), you buy the Spartans. Mark Dantonio built a nice little foundation over in Cincinnati, and now he has a chance to make some big changes in a town where John L. Smith messed everything up. A trip to Madison will tell a lot about this Spartan team, but mark my word that they will be at least 6-1 before rolling into Columbus. Michigan and Penn State have to travel to East Lansing. Expect the end-of-the-season slumps to end and a surprising upset to go down.