New Draft Tek Mock Accounts for Cutler-to-Chicago Trade

Want to know how the 2009 NFL Draft first round could go down, accounting for the Denver/Chicago trade? Check out Draft Tek! State of the art computer mopdeling allows for the mock to be updated ASAP.

Mock Draft Update - 2/26/2009

My 2009 NFL Mock Draft
This is the third version of my mock (previous two here and here). It is still one round but has some significant changes from last time. Not only have players shifted a bit after the combine, included with this version is a comparison to my last mock and commentary on each selection. These will be included in every mock from here on out.

Once again I find myself uneasy about the mock. I still have trouble with a few teams (like the Jaguars, Packers, Redskins, Jets, Vikings, and Eagles). Luckily free agency will make the picture clearer and next weeks update will be my best yet (or so I hope). As always, dialogue is below the mock.

My mock draft (version 3).

I still firmly believe that the Lions brass is smart enough to not take Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez. They need to much and throwing a rookie QB that will be in over his head is not right for the future of the franchise. They need too much. Aaron Curry can step in and make the team better immediately and would help secure the defense. Eugene Monroe and Jason Smith are in a fight right now to be the first OT taken. I still give the nod to Monroe but Smith really impressed at the combine and could easily jump Monroe in the next few weeks. The Chiefs, like the Lions, should not take a QB. Tyler Thigpen is a fine caretaker as they build up the offensive and defensive lines for the future. Next year's QB class will be much better and Kansas City would be wise to wait. I don't like how things played out at picks 7, 8, and 9. I'm just not comfortable with the selections but that's what worked this time around. The Jaguars are a mystery to me. Washington reaches for Peria Jerry for the second consecutive week, something I don't see happening next week (Albert Haynesworth anyone?). Picks 17 and 18 have me scratching my head too. Do the Jets want to take a young QB? Again, free agency will help us answer some of these questions. Aaron Maybin is a bit undersized for a DE so the Bears pick is very iffy. He is supposed to be a 3-4 OLB but didn't show good agility or coverage skills at the combine. He may drop significantly come draft day. The Bucs pick is definitely up in the air after they released a ton of veterans. However, since one of them was Joey Galloway I could see them going WR (or QB). Darrius Heyward-Bey is fast approaching Jeremy Maclin as the second best WR available. Even if Mark Sanchez is available at 20, I say the Lions pass. They need other bodies before a QB. No way do they win more than 5-6 games in'09; they'll have a shot at Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy a year from now. Wait on them. I actually like the early selections of Eben Britton (Eagles) and William Beatty (Vikings). It happens every draft, a run on OTs. This has a good chance of happening. The Chicago pick was the last one I didn't like. The bottom of the first is solid, I think. What do you think? Leave some comments!

MOCK COMPARISONS
This week the comparisons section expands to eight mocks with the addition of Sporting News Today's Russ Lande. Four of the previous seven have been updated in the last week (Draft Tek, Walter Football, The Football Expert) while the remaining three remain unchanged (Pro Football Talk, Mel Kiper, Todd McShay).

I have ripped on Russ Lande's take before but this official mock is just as - if not more - ridiculous than the previous. It really skews some of the average draft positions (which will be posted a bit later). Check out this weeks comparisons below.

Click to enlarge comparisons for 2/26/2009.

PROSPECT UPDATES

• As reflected in my mock draft, the stock of Oklahoma State TE Brandon Pettigrew is falling after a sub par combine. He ran a slow 4.80 seconds 40-yard dash. He may now be seen as a great blocker that can catch, and not the properly balanced, elite player such as Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates. Pettigrew is a fringe first rounder as it stands today.
• The exact opposite holds true for another TE, South Carolina's Jared Cook. Has he surpassed Pettigrew? It is a distinct possibility. Cook breezed through the 40, registering a 4.43. He has moved himself up from the mid rounds to an early second round pick and may hear his name called in the late first round.
• Continuing with the tight ends - a position that looks stronger every day - brings us to Wisconsin's Travis Beckum and Florida's Cornelius Ingram. Beckum didn't fo lower body workouts or drills due to a lingering leg injury but he did impress by benching 225 lbs. 28 times, most among TEs. Ingram was a star with Cook in TE drills, displaying impressive agility, quick cuts, and smooth hands. Beckum is a 3rd round pick and Ingram is a 2nd rounder but both rise everyday.
• A group everyone knew was strong, offensive tackle, had an interesting combine experience. Two players - Virginia's Eugene Monroe and Baylor's Jason Smith - has superb workouts, demonstrating more than enough speed, agility, and strength. On the flip side Alabama's Andre Smith hurt himself badly. Smith was not in shape and chose not to workout and then left the combine all together, without notifying authorities. His work ethic and character had been questioned before and these actions surely did not help. Because he has such vast potential it's doubtful he'll sleep outside of the Top 15.
• At least two other OTs turned some heads with their overall athleticism and now find themselves in the first round discussion. Connecticut's William Beatty and Arizona's Eben Britton - fringe 1st rounders before - may have did enough to cement their selection between picks 20 and 32. First round, here they come!
• Many scouts believe Mark Sanchez has pulled even with Matthew Stafford and could be selected 1st overall by Detroit. You know I don't believe that. But Sanchez did perform at the combine where as Stafford did not so it is a possibility.
• I mentioned the amazing workouts and tests that Maryland WR Darrius Heyward-Bey turned in before but I want emphasize that he is quickly climbing draft boards. Thanks to his size/speed combination, he could jump Jeremy Maclin come April.
• Some other receivers of note had mixed results. North Carolina's Hakeem Nicks suffered a leg injury and wasn't able to finish workouts. He could drop into the second round if the injury lingers. He may have been surpassed by Rutgers' Kenny Britt. Britt has the body of Broncos wideout Brandon Marshall and is just as talented, which he demonstrated last week. Ohio State's Brian Robiskie was a pleasant surprise according to reports. He was faster than expected and is the most polished receiver in the draft when it comes to proper technique and route running. He may have played himself into the late 2nd round.
  
• The top RBs had unremarkable combine experiences and neither has separated himself from the other. Both ran somewhat disappointing 40s but each looked strong in drills. Ohio State's Chris Wells is probably the best all-around option but Georgia's Knowshon Moreno has more upside and big play potential. Iowa's Shonn Greene was solid and impressed with his ability to catch passes, something he did little of in college.
  
• Could West Virginia's Pat White play himself into the QB race? If he performs at his pro day workout like he did at the combine he most certainly will. Seen as more of a WR/RB hybrid, and someone capable as a threat in the wildcat offense, White threw the ball much better than anticipated. Though he may never be starter material, his multiple threat ability will raise his stock. Once thought as a 4th or 5th rounder, White could be called very early on Day 2.
• Florida State's Everette Brown may have cemented his place in the Top 10 with strong workouts and a quick 40 time. Brown is in competition with Texas' Brian Orakpo as the best DE/OLB prospect. Orakpo had a solid combine but was not as impressive as Brown and may not have the athleticism to play OLB in a 3-4.
• Two other 'tweener prospects had opposite experiences. USC DE/OLB Clay Matthews is rising thanks to a fast 40 and fantastic work in drills. Unfortunately Penn State's Aaron Maybin really struggled. For a man of his size the speed and quickness wasn't what it should have been. He also was disappointing in linebacker drills.
• As I mentioned earlier, Wake Forest's Aaron Curry may have helped the Lions decide who to take at #1. He was fast, agile, and explosive in drills plus displayed the mentality to diagnose plays effectively. He is a Top 5 pick.
• The same cannot be said for Ohio State's James Laurinaitis. Thought of as a Top 5 pick in 2008, a year later he could fall into the second round. Seriously. Similar things have happened to perceived top talent linebackers the past two years. In 2007 Paul Posluszny dropped into the early second and last year Dan Connor fell into the third. Laurinaitis may be next unless he has a stellar pro day workout in Columbus.
• He won't hear his name called until later on Day 2 but Northwestern RB Tyrell Sutton is modeling himself after someone that he could become: Darren Sproles. Both are considered small, though Sutton is two inches taller. Sutton has expressed an interest to play defense if he can't make it as an RB.
• Want another fast riser that could crash the first round? Try Missouri's Evander Hood. The DT was seen as a third round pick before the combine. After a great combine he know is entering the discussion to be taken before Peria Jerry.
• Some more risers of note: Safety Chris Clemons (Clemson), CB Chris Owens (San Jose State), and CB Alphonso Smith (Wake Forest).
• These players had bad combine workouts and their stock has taken a hit: CB Coye Francies (San Jose State), Safety Stephen Hodge (TCU), CB D.J. Moore (Vanderbilt), and Safety Kevin Ellison (USC).

That is one long update! The revised ADP will be up in a little bit.

Mock Draft Update - 2/20/2009

My 2009 NFL Mock Draft
Here is version 2 of my personal mock draft. This is the first update I've done since the end of September so a lot has changed. Starting next week I'll be listing my selection from the previous mock as well as adding some commentary. I'm not completely satisfied with the mock but that's expected. It's only one round as of now but it's hard enough to slot 32 guys before the combine and pro day workouts conclude. I'll eventually expand to three rounds. I have a bit more to say below the mock. Check it out...

Click to see my mock draft (version 2).

So what do you think? It's OK. I still can't slot the QBs. This class is one of the weakest in years but front office folk (and fans) seem to always overvalue rookie QBs. The success of Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco last year won't help pundits this year. Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman are talent to be selected between picks 20 and 40, not in the Top 10. I'm trying to reflect that here but, boy, I may hear it from some people, especially with Sanchez out of the first round. But really, do you believe Sanchez is going to be a legitimate threat in the NFL? I certainly don't. He couldn't beat out John David Booty at USC (who was a 4th round pick last season) but now, all of a sudden, Sanchez is a Top 10 talent? Get real. The guy has played in only 27 games, starting just 16 of them. It has been well documented that games started and completion percentage are big indicators for success at the next level. It's not perfect - nothing is - but it helps to consider the body of work. Well for Sanchez, there ain't much to look at. He did complete over 65% of his passes in 2008 and, for his career, completed over 64%. That's good. But experience is lacking. He may have developed over this last year and perhaps is better than former teammate Booty now. But he isn't three rounds in the draft better.

I have other gripes about this mock too, like the shortage of DTs and wide gap in talent between Michael Crabtree and the rest of the WRs. However this mock is nowhere near what the final one will look like come April 24th. Feel free to voice your opinions in the comments.

MOCK COMPARISONS
Below I have compiled seven of my favorite mock drafts for comparison purposes. The seven mocks are (in no particular order): Draft Tek, Mel Kiper (ESPN), Michael Abromowitz (The Football Expert), Mike Florio (Pro Football Talk), Scott Wright (Draft Countdown), Todd McShay (ESPN), and Walter Cherepinsky (Walter Football). Let's take a look at what they got, as of February 20th...

Click to enlarge comparisons for 2/20/2009.

PROSPECT UPDATES

• Florida's Cornelius Ingram, who missed all of the 2008 season due to a knee injury, is starting to rise up draft boards because of his natural athleticism and above average blocking for a TE. He is being compared to Antonio Gates and could hear his name called as early as the second round. That's quite an accomplishment for someone who hasn't played a football game since January 1, 2008. Many scouting services consider Ingram the 3rd or 4th best TE prospect.
  
• Michael Crabtree is the best WR in the class - by far - and will not drop out of the Top 10. Old news, right? Well he has decided to not run at the combine (more on that later) because of a nagging ankle injury. He will run at his March pro day. Though skipping a workout can be seen as a red flag, it is the right decision for Crabtree. Why push yourself when you aren't 100% and have another shot at it? Crabtree doesn't have to show elite speed; run between a 4.45 - 4.60 second 40 and he'll be fine.
• Who's the best OT prospect? No one seems to know right now. Going into the season it was Michael Oher (Ole Miss), but athleticism and dedication concerns have caused him to drop. Then it was Andre Smith from Alabama. However weight issues surfaced and it now seems that Eugene Monroe (Virginia) could be the guy. And don't forget about Baylor's Jason Smith. The former TE has the quickness and footwork to fend off speed rushers, something teams covet. The OT dilemma won't be sorted out until the first 3-5 picks of the draft are in Roger Goodell's hand.
• Weight issues haunt prospects from the end of their last college season through the draft. Already some prospects have shown the ability to add or lose weight. Massive LSU OG Herman Johnson checked in at 6 ft. 7 1/4 inches and 364 pounds... that's 18 pounds less than his weight at the Senior Bowl last month. Johnsons needed to lose that - and more - because he showed little agility during workouts. Another prospect that had weight issues was Oregon OC Max Unger. However he needed to add weight. Which he has. His weight is now up to 310 pounds, 11 more than last month. Unger was overmatched by Boston College DT B.J. Raji at times during the Senior Bowl and the added weight and muscle will help Unger, as long as he maintains his athleticism.

COMBINE INFORMATION
Though the combine officially started yesterday the stuff that garners headlines began today. Below is the combine broadcast schedule, thanks to 2 the Lion Football...

Thursday, February 19
2:30 PM - NFL Scouting Combine press conferences
7:00 PM - NFL Total Access from the Scouting Combine
Also...
8:00 PM - NFL Top 10: Football Factories (Penn State is one of the featured schools - hopefully they focus more on the Francos and the Robbys than the Courtneys and Ki-Jana's)

Friday, February 20
2:30 PM - NFL Scouting Combine press conferences
7:00 PM - NFL Total Access from the Scouting Combine

Saturday, February 21
11:00 AM - Workouts: Kickers, Offensive Linemen and Tight Ends (Cadogan and Shipley)
2:00 PM - NFL Scouting Combine press conferences
7:00 PM - NFL Total Access from the Scouting Combine

Sunday, February 22
11:00 AM - Workouts: Quarterbacks, Wide Receivers, Running Backs (Butler, Norwood and Williams)
2:00 PM - NFL Scouting Combine press conferences
7:00 PM - NFL Total Access from the Scouting Combine

Monday, February 23
11:00 AM - Workouts: Linebackers, Defensive Lineman (Evans and Maybin)
7:00 PM - NFL Total Access from the Scouting Combine

Tuesday, February 24
11:00 AM - Workouts: Defensive Backs (Sargeant)

Wednesday, February 25
8:00 PM - 2007 NFL Scouting Combine Wrap-Up Show

Top notch work compiling the schedule and making note of when PSU players will perform.

Later tonight I hope to expand on the mock drafts by computing a prospects average draft position, based on the seven mocks in the comparisons section.

Top 5 Pick Success Rate

Originally published by me at Draft Tek.

The debate rages on! Actually, this debate happens nearly every year. QBs are hot commodities; everyone wants to find the next Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, or John Elway. In the 2009 Draft we are left with three prospects considered elite and possible first rounders: Matt Stafford (Georgia), Mark Sanchez (USC), and Josh Freeman (Kansas State). Generally speaking, Stafford and Sanchez are viewed as Top 10 picks - as Draft Tek Correspondent Mike Schottey pointed out here. However, our model and correspondents seem to disagree on team needs and the talent available compared with other mocks, “experts”, and you, the readers.

Let’s look at this using statistics. What are the odds that a player taken in the Top 5 will become an All Pro/Pro Bowl-caliber performer? Looking at 43 seasons of data (1966 through 2008, or the “Super Bowl Era”) we get these percentages for each position:

QB - There have been 39 taken in the Top 5 since 1966. Of those only 4 (~10%) have been named 1st Team All Pro with 20 (~51%) making the Pro Bowl at least once. But when using a high draft pick you’re not expecting someone to make the Pro Bowl once, you expect multiple trips - like an average of once every three seasons. That brings down the list to 11 out of 39 (~28%). Basically, 1 out of every 4 QBs selected in the Top 5 will really be worth that status and be “franchise” QBs. But because of sample size there are some outliers. Here is the list of the 10 “franchise” QBs drafted since 1966: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Michael Vick, Peyton Manning, Drew Beldsoe, Troy Aikman, John Elway, Donovan McNabb, Vince Young, Philip Rivers, and Bob Griese. Vick and Young? Not viewed in that light anymore. There’s also the some young QBs that could fall off and not have prolonged success: Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, and Philip Rivers. Assuming those three maintain their high level of play over the last three years that really leaves us with 9 out of the 39 (~23%) QBs that were Top 5 picks who are/were truly worthy of the “franchise” label; someone you’d actually want to take in the Top 5. As of now, 4 of the 39 (~10%) have been elected to the Hall of Fame (Troy Aikman, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw, and Bob Griese). There will be at least one more joining them after Peyton manning retires. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~23%

RB - There have been 34 selected Top 5 since 1966, with 13 (~38%) being selected 1st Team All Pro at least once. 20 of the 34 (~59%) have made at least one Pro Bowl. Going back to the “1 Pro Bowl for every 3 years as a starter” rule, we’re left with 16 “franchise” RBs, which is ~47%. Of those 16, 3 have/had 5 or less years of playing experience (Billy Sims, Ronnie Brown, and Brent Fullwood) so their sample size comes into question. We’ll keep them in but I wanted to point that out. Anyway, of those 16 “franchise” RBs, 6 have made the Hall of Fame (Earl Campbell, O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Tony Dorsett, Barry Sanders, and Walter Payton). Most likely two more will join them in the near future (Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson). FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~47%

WR - There have been a mere 16 taken in the Top 5 in the last 43 drafts. Only 3 of them (~19%) have made 1st Team All Pro, all only once. However, 10 of the 16 (~63%) have made at least one Pro Bowl. Expanding to our”franchise” requirement of 1 Pro Bowl every 3 years as starter leaves 7 of the 16 (44%). One of them, though, is Desmond Howard, more known for his return skills than for his receiving skills. He has only one accrued season as a WR (according to Pro Football Reference, where all these stats are from) and during it he made the Pro Bowl (most likely as a returner). We’ll throw him out, leaving 6 of the 16 (~38%). Three of the six have 5 or less years as a starter but are all young players (Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Johnson). We’ll say they stay on their current pace and keep them in. It is interesting to note that none of the 16 Top 5 picks have been elected to the Hall of Fame… and it may not happen until Edwards, Fitzgerald, and Johnson hang it up for good. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~38%

TE - There has been only one TE taken in the Top 5, Riley Odoms (Houston) by Denver in 1972. He was a 10-year starter, made 1st Team All Pro twice, and was selected to 4 Pro Bowls. He was a success by my measure but the overall sample size is too small. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: N/A

OT - There have been 24 selected Top 5 since 1966. Of the 24, 8 have been named to the All Pro 1st Team (~33%) and 14 have made at least one Pro Bowl (~58%). Using the “1-every-3″ rule for a true franchise player we’re left with 11 out of 24, which is ~46%. Two of those 11 are young (Jake Long and Joe Thomas) but are viewed as perennial Pro Bowl players so they will remain in the group. There are currently 2 HOF Top 5 tackles - Ron Yary and Anthony Munoz. They’ll be joined by Jonathan Ogden and Orlando Pace in the coming years (and possibly Chris Samuels). FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~46%

OG - There have been 7 taken in the Top 5 in the last 43 drafts. Though I’d like to have at least 10 players for this analysis, I’ll go ahead with the OGs anyway. Four of the 7 made the All Pro 1st Team at least once. The same 4 made the Pro Bowl on multiple occasions. And all 4 count as “franchise” guards by making at least 1 Pro bowl every 3 years: Bill Fralic, Tom Mack, John Hannah, and John Niland. Mack and Hannah are in the HOF. It’s a small sample size but the position looks promising. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~57%

OC - Like the TE position, OCs are not normally selected high. There has been only one OC taken in the Top 5 in the “Super Bowl Era”, Bob Johnson (Tennessee) by the Bengals in 1968. He was the #2 overall pick, just behind HOF Tackle Ron Yary. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: N/A

DE - 34 have been selected in the Top 5 since 1966. Of those 34, only 10 have made an All Pro squad (~29%) with 13 making at least one Pro Bowl (~38%). Following my “franchise player rule” results in 10 elite players, which is again ~29%. Mario Williams is the youngest “franchise” player. We’ll keep him on the list because he has shown the skills necessary for a perennial Pro Bowl performer. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~29%

DT - Since 1966, 17 players have been selected Top 5. Of the 17, 7 (~41%) have made the All Pro 1st Team and 9 (~59%) have made at least one Pro bowl. However, only 5 ( are considered a “franchise” player and worthy of a Top 5 pick. Two of the 17 have made the Hall of Fame (Randy White and Joe Greene). It’s possible Cortez Kennedy could join them soon. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~29%

LB - There have been 26 taken in the Top 5 since 1966. ~39% have made the All Pro 1st Team (10 of 26) while 14 have made at least one Pro Bowl appearance (~54%). Satisfying the “franchise” player and justifying their draft position has been done so by 10 players, or ~39%. Two currently reside in the Hall of Fame (Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas). In about 5 years Junior Seau will join them. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~39%

DB - Unfortunately Pro Football Reference doesn’t distinguish between cornerbacks and safeties so we have the ambiguous “defensive back” category. In the last 43 drafts only 16 DBs have been taken in the first 5 selections. Five of the 16 have been named to the All Pro 1st Team (~31%) and 10 have made at least one Pro Bowl (~63%). Once again five justify their draft position by reaching the limits for a “franchise” player. Only one (Mike Haynes) has made the HOF, though he may be joined by Deion Sanders and/or Charles Woodson in the future. FINAL SUCCESS RATE: ~31%

K/P - No kickers or punters have been selected in the Top 5 of any draft since 1966 (though one K did go #6 overall; Charlie Gogolak from Princeton by the Redskins in 1966). FINAL SUCCESS RATE: N/A

So there is a statistical analysis of players picked in the Top 5 of any draft during the “Super Bowl Era”. What does it tell us? Well here’s a quick reminder of the success rates:

QB: ~23%
RB: ~47%
WR: ~38%
TE: N/A
OT: ~46%
OG: ~57%
OC: N/A
DE: ~29%
DT: ~29%
LB: ~39%
DB: ~31%
K/P: N/A

The safest positions to draft early seem to be offensive lineman. The OG group had a small sample size but the highest success rate and OT had the 3rd highest success rate. RBs had the 2nd highest rate. That really is not a surprise. It has been said for years that the easiest position to fill through the draft is RB because there is little change from their duties in college to those in the NFL. Want the safe pick? Go with a RB or OG/OT. But stay away from… QBs and defensive lineman! They had the worst success rate at fulfilling the “franchise” label and earning their Top 5 pick paycheck. WRs and LBs can be decent picks too.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR 2009?

This really doesn’t apply to just 2009 but for any draft. Teams in the Top 5 should not go for QBs because they are more miss then hit and they can set back and already dismal frnachise another 5-10 years. The 2009 QB class is already considered weak so why reach for someone now when there are many more needs to fill? I say grab that OT (like Joe Thomas in ‘07 and Jake Long in ‘08 ) or stud RB; the future dividends could be huge. Detroit, St. Louis, and Seattle should all be thinking “OT” with their 1st pick. There are at least three that could go in the Top 5 and statistically speaking they are less likely to bust then QBs. Add in a can’t-miss WR in Michael Crabtree and you should know who the Top 4 are come April 25. In no particular order it should be Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe, Jason Smith, and Michael Crabtree.

This in no way means a QB should never be taken. There are going to be times when a team may actually be a QB away from contending. Maybe a team had some injuries and bad luck the prior year and just need a QB. Whatever the case may be. It seems that scouts, front office personnel, and fans put the QB position on such a high pedestal that when one doesn’t go early it’s a travesty. Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman are not Top 10 picks. 1st round, most likely. They would have much better value between picks 15-25 than Top 5. If a QB-needy team like Detroit or Kansas City really wants one, they can maneuver to get him there. Just not at 1 or 3.

2009 Miami Dolphins Draft Preview, Version 1

Originally published by me at Draft Tek.

The Dolphins, despite one of the greatest turnarounds in NFL history, were a bit overshadowed in 2009. Apparently winning 10 more games than the previous season - something only one other team, the 1999 Colts, has done - and taking the AFC East crown isn't as important or noticeable as a vastly overrated Brett Favre in New York or rookie QB's (Matt Ryan of Atlanta and Joe Flacco of Baltimore) bringing their franchises to respectability. Oh well. No harm, no foul I guess. But this remarkable turnaround has created an interesting dilemma for a Dolphins franchise getting ready to enter Year 2 of the Parcells-Ireland-Sparano regime. Miami vastly improved in 2008 but was aided by some luck, as pointed out here. Part of that luck - the easy schedule - will change in 2009. While it's almost impossible at this point to predict what teams will and won't be good next season it's pretty obvious that a slate of games containing Houston (a team Miami has never defeated), Indianapolis ('08 playoff team), Pittsburgh (Super Bowl Champs?), New Orleans (crazy offense), Tampa Bay (stout defense), Jacksonville ('08 underachievers), Tennessee (stout defense II), San Diego (better than their '08 record), Atlanta (up-and-comers), and Carolina ('08 playoff team) is more difficult than facing each conference's West Division (even though Arizona made the Super Bowl). Does Miami have the talent to repeat their 2008 season in '09? As of now I say no, and it all comes back to personnel.

Regardless of the easy schedule Miami clearly improved. There is much more talent now than there was a year ago at this time. That's what will happen when a competent regime finds free agent gems (Chad Pennington, Justin Smiley), makes inconceivably awesome trades (Jason Ferguson for a 6th rounder; Akin Ayodele and Anthony Fasano for a 4th rounder), and drafts BPA - Best Player Available - at positions of need (Jake Long, Phillip Merling, Chad Henne, Kendall Langford, Donald Thomas). However I doubt you'll find anyone that truly believes Miami was a Super Bowl contender even after they vanquished the Jets to win their first AFC East crown since the 2000 season. They are competitive, sure, but not up to par with some of the elite teams of this season (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona, NY Giants). That is why this offseason is a big one for the Dolphins. They must continue to build on what they started a year ago. We're in the season of resigning players and it'll soon be time for free agency. Then comes arguably the most exciting part of the "off"season - the Draft.

Early draft previews are pretty futile. Though we're at the end of the college postseason "all-star" games, we're still a month away from the combine and even farther from college pro day workouts. But the draft has a cult following... why else would you be here now, in January, for something that doesn't happen for another 87 days?

In order to contemplate whom a team - in this case, the Miami Dolphins - will draft, we must tackle what positions are in need of an upgrade or young, talented depth. Let's start with the offense.

Wide Receiver

On the Roster: Miami burned their #9 selection in the 2007 draft on speedy WR/KR Ted Ginn, Jr. from Ohio State. Returns thus far have been adequate but don't justify a Top 10 pick. Ginn has played in all 16 games in each of his two NFL seasons, amassing 90 receptions and 1,210 yards while scoring four TDs off of receptions. He was used heavily as a returner in his rookie season (24 punt returns, 63 kick returns) but notched only 39 returns combined in '08. 2009 will be an important year for this young man.

Rounding out the WR crew are Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, and Brandon London. Camarillo signed a three year extension and subsequently tore his ACL. He was having a phenomenal season and became Pennington's go-to guy. Bess was an undrafted rookie FA out of Hawai'i and became a reliable slot receiver. Brandon London, despite only three catches in '08, has been resigned and tutored to become Miami's version of Brandon Marshall. I'm leaving off Ernest Wilford - the $7 million bust - because he is clearly not in future plans. Wilford could be cut and is a shining example of how every talent department misses on occasion.

What's needed: A true #1 guy. Ginn could develop into one but my money is on him being a great #2 that stretches defenses allowing the #1 and slot guys room underneath.

Draft Priority: High. The free agents that will be available aren't that enticing. Miami will add a WR in the draft but I doubt it's in round one. A guy in the 2nd or 3rd is more likely.

Draft Targets: Obviously Michael Crabtree but he won't fall past pick four and could be off the board at #2. Realistic targets include Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey and North Carolina's Hakeem Nicks in round one, Oklahoma's Juaquin Iglesias, Rutgers' Kenny Britt, and Ohio State's Brian Robiskie in round two, or Georgia's Mohamed Massaquoi and Florida's Louis Murphy in round three.

Offensive Line

On the Roster: Going into 2008 the offensive line was thought to be a huge strength, especially in the run game. Not quite. Though the numbers were respectable the run game was widely inconsistent. As a result the Dolphins fired o-line coach Mike Maser, replacing him with former Giants assistant Dave DeGuglielmo. Injuries took a toll on the starters too. Rookie 6th round pick Donald Thomas severely injured his ankle in the first half of the season opener (he finished the game though) and was placed on IR. In week 13 Justin Smiley was lost for the remainder of the season and around that same time starting center Samson Satele suffered a torn labrum, though he finished out the season. Jake Long, Justin Smiley, Andy Alleman, Al Johnson, Donald Thomas, Ike Ndukwe, and Vernon Carey all played significant roles in the 2008 o-line. Long made the Pro Bowl as a rookie and had a tremendous first year. Big things are ahead of him. Smiley is said to be on track to be ready for training camp, though his availability for offseason workouts is in question. Donald Thomas will more than likely earn back his starting RG spot. The biggest question marks are at center and right tackle. Satele just isn't a great fit for the Miami scheme. He is undersized and lacks ideal lower body strength to move the giant NTs that fill out AFC East rosters (Marcus Stroud, Kris Jenkins, Vince Wilfork). Satele would be of more use in a pass-happy system such as Cincinnati, New Orleans, Arizona, or Philadelphia. He has versatility and could become trade bait. The backups aren't much better. Al Johnson, though liked by the front office, is undersized as well. Ditto for AndyAlleman. Each of them can play guard too, like Satele. Is it fruitful to have three undersized (for your scheme) versatile OC-OG on your roster but no clear-cut beast? Not really. One of them should be cleared for a legitimate powerful center. Right tackle poses another dilemma but this one is easier to solve. Resign Vernon Carey. DO IT. Do no low-ball him; offer a package at face value and lock him up for three or four more years. He isn't dynamic but is above average. He was the best run blocking o-lineman this year. He has experience at LT which is a benefit in case something would happen to Long (God forbid). Carey has earned a new contract and Miami should pay him.

What's needed: A beast at C, possibly a RT, and depth. Satele should be a backup or in a different system and Carey may be leaving town.

Draft Priority: Above Average. A strong center would do wonders for the offense. Some mid-round guys are needed for depth at both tackle and guard. If Carey is gone, RT must be addressed.

Draft Targets: If Miami cannot sign the Ravens Jason Brown (set to be a FA) then a center will be drafted. The best available, as Long Ball points out, are California's Alex Mack, Oregon's Max Unger, and Arkansas' Jonathan Luigs. I'd add Louisville's Eric Wood and Alabama's Antoine Caldwell to that list as well. Each has the size and frame to add strength and bulk to dominate large d-lineman. Mack should be available at 25, if Miami wants to use a first rounder on a center. He probably won't slip to 44 but Unger could be there. Luigs is a possibility at 56 but may be available in the third. Wood and Caldwell are, currently, third rounders as well.

If Carey leaves then the Dolphins could be looking RT in round one in addition to center. At 25 there won't be many OTs available but one that may be is Arizona's Eben Britton. Late second and third rounders of interest could be Oklahoma's Phil Loadholt and Orgeon's Fenuki Tupou. Even if Carey is resigned Miami could be looking for a backup OT in rounds five through seven.

Adding a guard would be a luxury if Alleman, Johnson, and Satele stick around. However it is a possibility in the late rounds. Some options could be BYU's Ray Feinga, Wisconsin's Andy Kemp, and Texas Tech's Louis Vasquez.

Offense Summary

Those are Miami's biggest needs on offense. They may be considering a QB and RB late as well, depending how some prospects fall and what else is available. It's rumored that Miami is actively shopping John Beck for a 4th or 5th rounder, meaning they may need to draft someone late to fill in as the 3rd QB. Ronnie Brown is entering the final year of his rookie contract and Ricky Williams is no spring chicken. They took two RBs in the 2008 draft (Jalen Parmalee, sniped by the Ravens from the practice squad, and Lex Hilliard). They may add another late-rounder for insurance. Now on to the defense...

Defensive Line

On the Roster: This was an area of concentration in 2008 so not too much is needed this offseason. The additions of Jason Ferguson, Randy Starks, Phillip Merling, Kendall Langford, and Lionel Dotson paid huge dividends in '08. Merling, Langford, Starks, and holdover Vonnie Holliday had solid seasons. No upgrades are needed at DE unless someone is cut (not likely, but it has been rumored that Holliday could be a cap casualty). The age of Jason Ferguson and the stunted development (and character concerns) surrounding '07 pick Paul Soliai means that NT is a definite need. Starks filled in for the injured Ferguson (and suspended Soliai) for most of the first Ravens game. However he is undersized and had never played the position before. He is better suited as a DE in a 3-4 (or DT in a 4-3). So we have only two pure NTs on the roster. Someone else is needed.

What's needed: A massive NT. They are quite rare in both free agency and the draft but getting one is a must for the 3-4 to work properly.

Draft Priority: High. The need at NT is about equal to that of a feature WR.

Draft Targets: The best NT available, Boston College's B.J. Raji, will be off the board way before the 25th pick (he could go as high as 9 to Green Bay and probably wouldn't slip past Denver; both the Packers and Broncos are switching to the 3-4). So what's left? Well basically nothing at 25. Miami should be looking in rounds two and three for their man. They could tray to bulk up USC's Fili Moala but most "experts" think he is a better option for the 4-3. Perhaps the best fit is Raji's teammate at Boston College, Ron Brace. He'd look good in aqua and may be available in the late 2nd or 3rd. Clemson's Dorell Scott would be a reach in the 3rd but would be a nice addition late in the 4th. Another late round prospect would be Michigan's Terrence Taylor. And that's about it. There isn't much available so landing one of the NTs in round two or three is dire unless they want to wait until 2010 (Alabama's Terrence Cody anyone?).

Linebacker

On the Roster: The starters this year were Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder inside and Matt Roth and Joey Porter outside. Providing depth were Reggie Torbor, Charlie Anderson, Quentin Moses, and Erik Walden. Channing Crowder is set to be a free agent and, according to sources close to the team, most likely will not be back in 2009. This creates an obvious need at ILB. If Crowder does in fact bolt for a bigger payday he could be difficult to replace. When he missed the Kansas City game in late December the Miami defense had a terrible time stopping the run. Torbor is just not cut out to be a starter for this defense; he is better suited as an OLB in a 4-3 scheme. Ayodele and Crowder provided a serviceable duo - not spectacular, but solid. They made tackles but not big plays, possibly a reason why this regime isn't adamant about bringing Crowder back at an exorbitant figure. Outside was a mixed bag this season. Matt Roth made a surprisingly smooth transition from DE to OLB but had some rough spots. He was pretty solid versus the run but has a difficult time in coverage. Perhaps an offseason of conditioning and technique tweaking will help. Porter had a great season in terms of rushing the QB but he was a bit of a liability in the run game. At this stage of his career he just doesn't have the strength or agility to shed some blockers at the point of attack. Porter and Roth will enter 2009 as the starters outside but will be pushed by Charlie Anderson as well as recent CFL signee Derek Cameron Wake.

What's needed: An ILB and possibly an OLB. An ILB must be added even if Crowder does return. Adding a young OLB to groom to replace Porter soon would be a luxury but one that this regime might covet.

Draft Priority: Above average for ILB but high if Crowder leaves. Average at OLB; adding a young project is a possibility (always have an eye on the future!).

Draft Targets: As we have seen in recent years, some top LBs drop on draft day; the LB position isn't a perceived glamour spot. But who wouldn't kill to have Patrick Willis right now? The top three ILBs are Wake Forest's Aaron Curry, USCs Rey Maualuga, and Ohio State's James Laurinaitis. Curry should be a top five pick. It is unlikely that Maualuga drops to 25 either, but many draftniks think Laurinaitis will be there for the taking for Miami. Each has the size to play ILB in a 3-4 however neither are as polished as Willis. I'd be more open to taking Maualuga if he fell; I think Laurinaitis is overrated. Unfortunately if Miami passes on an ILB in round one there isn't much else available later, at least not that will make an immediate impact. Late in round two LSU's Darry Beckwith may be available. The same goes for Georgia's Dannell Ellerbe in round three. However each needs a lot of work and wouldn't be ready to start as a rookie. This is a very weak class at ILB; Miami will not find a future starter after the third round. Fortunately the OLB class makes up for it.

There are a plethora of 3-4 OLBs available this year. I doubt Miami will use a round one pick on any of them - there are much higher priorities. However, this regime loves monster rush LBs; Parcells is always looking for the next Lawrence Taylor. He found a pretty good one in DeMarcus Ware. Perhaps he'll find one for Miami too. In round one it is believed USCs Brian Cushing and Virginia's Clint Sintim will be available. Sintim is someone gaining steam and would be a perfect fir in Miami. He played in a 3-4 at Virginia, for a Parcells disciple no less. How about someone in round two... like Cincinnati's Connor Barwin. The converted TE played DE his senior year as a Bearcat and will most likely become a 3-4 OLB in the NFL. He is a fantastic athlete and the combine will shoot his stock way up. He is obviously raw but can learn from Porter. Another option in round two to groom for the future is Northern Illinois' Larry English. Like Barwin he'll be a converted DE and will need time to learn the position. His stock will rise during the combine too. With their second pick in round two the Dolphins could try to land one of USC's other linebackr prospects, Clay Matthews. Utah's Paul Kruger would be ideal at the end of the second as well. Since this isn't a high priority need Miami may wait to take a flyer on someone in the later rounds, perhaps Texas Tech's Brandon Williams or Iowa's Mitch King. Both will be available in the 3rd or 4th. Virginia Tech's Orion Martin, Missouri's Stryker Sulak, and Kentucky's Johnny Williams all have the size but lack experience in a 3-4. They'll all be available late on April 26th.

Defensive Back

On the Roster: Will Allen, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, and Yeremiah Bell improved drastically as the year progressed as the four starters in the secondary. Goodman, Bell, and Hill are all free agents but it is expected that at least two of the three will be resigned (most likely Goodman and Bell). Each of these players is on (or approaching) the wrong side of 30. And none are exactly dynamic playmakers like Baltimore's Ed Reed or Pittsburgh's Troy Polamalu. The depth is even worse. Jason Allen has shuffled positions, back and forth between safety and cornerback, but hasn't played that well either place. He seems destined as a dimeback at best (thanks, Nick Saban!). Nate Jones and Joey Thomas are just fillers at this point, though Jones proved he can be an excellent blitzer. Former Packer Tyrone Culver backed up Hill and Bell at safety and played pretty well. He is at his best on special teams but is still young and could improve into a reliable fall back option. Courtney Bryan is - at best - a fifth option at safety and is only on the roster for special teams. He may not be back. Recently signed Bengals castoff Ethan Kilmer will compete with Bryan for a backup safety spot... unles a rookie comes in.

What's needed: A true shut down #1 CB. Will Allen and Andre Goodman are good but would be best as complements to a dominant corner (like Nnamdi Asomugha). A ball-hawking FS and/or a young, developmental SS.

Draft Priority: Very high. The need is there but this regime likes the big bodies. I don't see them taking just any CB in round one to satisfy a need and a round one safety is unlikely to happen. These needs are best filled in round two through four.

Draft Targets: If the Dolphins were to take a DB in the first it would probably come down to Illinois' Vontae Davis, Vanderbilt's D.J. Moore, or Wake Forest's Alphonso Smith. Moore is a bit undersized for the Dolphins defensive scheme but Davis would fit nicely. I think teams are starting to sour on Missouri's Will Moore after his workouts and game play at the Senior Bowl but that could change come the combine and pro day workouts. If he shows he has adequate speed he'd be a great heir at SS to Bell. Some possible round two targets include Utah's Sean Smith, who is capable of playing CB or FS, Virginia Tech's Victor "Macho" Harris, Connecticut's Darius Butler, and Cincinnati's Mike Mickens. There aren't many strong prospects at either safety position but possibly the best - and my personal favorite - is Western Michigan's Louis Delmas. His stock has been rising; he outperformed Moore at the Senior Bowl and is someone that will perform great at the combine. If Miami wants him they may have to take him with the Redskin's pick in the 2nd. Other safety choices on day on include Oregon's Patrick Chung and Mississippi State's Derek Pegues. Because Miami needs a player at both CB and S, let's look in other rounds. Clemson's Michael Hamlin would be a nice project at SS. he should be available in round three. The same goes for the speedy CB from San Jose State's Coye Francies. Michigan's Morgan Trent would be a nice addition at the end of the 3rd. CB is always a position with plenty of prospects. There is a good possibility the Dolphins will add three secondary players during the draft.

Summary

It is not hard to pinpoint Miami's needs. A true #1 receiver and cornerback are high priorities, as is a mauling center. ILB and RT become huge needs as well if Crowder and Carey leave in free agency. Depth and young players are needed at OG, OT, NT, OLB, and S. Because the current regime wants to fill needs but also utilize the "best player available" cliche, it's hard to pinpoint just who will be taken when. Miami will have a ton of options at 25. What they do then will determine what they will do the rest of the draft.