NFL Draft Averages - Ks/Ps

Previously: QBs, RBs, FBs, WRs, TEs, OTs, OGs, OCs, DTs, DEs, LBs, DBs

This is it, this is definitely it! The final installment of my NFL Draft Averages feature, which will take a look at two positions at once... the very dear to our heart specialists.

Kickers and punters both get a bad rap from fans. They're seen as pretty much useless and a magnet for jokes. However take their area of expertise away and your team will sorely suffer. Maybe some of you already have seen this first hand. For teams, field position is imperative to success. Where would you rather have your opponent start, their 40 or their 10 yard line? Good punters means the chance to pin an opponent in their own territory, leading to less points for them. Punters don't spark as much debate as their cousin the kicker.

Kickers are polarizing people. Not the actual person, but the position. They are regularly the scapegoat for a teams inability to play defense or offense. If I recall correctly, the average score of an NFL game is something like 17-14. The difference? Three points... or a field goal. So, yeah, any time you can put points on the board is important. A kicker is half of your options. Better make it count.

With all of that said I can't really present a case for drafting a kicker or a punter in the draft. Like in fantasy football it's just kind of a waste. Plenty of NFL kickers are undrafted free agents or converted soccer players. Rarely does a drafted specialist give you the value you'd expect from a draft pick. See for yourself.

Draft trends for Ks (1999-2008).

Draft trends for Ps (1999-2008).

In the last 10 drafts 48 specialists have been taken - 25 kickers and 23 punters. One kicker was (foolishly) taken in the first round (Sebastian Janikowski, #17, Raiders, 2000) with another going in round two (Mike Nugent, #47, Jets, 2005). Janikowski is nowhere near the best kicker in the game and Nugent doesn't even kick for New York anymore (signed with Tampa Bay as a free agent this offseason). It just ain't worth it folks! Luckily no punters have been taken before the third round in the last 10 years. Still, a punter in round three? Come on people.

Three kickers and two punters are expected to be taken in the draft based on the results of the last 10 years. There has never been 0 of either position taken though there have been years where only one was selected. There has never been more than three kickers or four punters taken in any draft since 1999. The lists of players will be quite small, especially when compared with the DBs.

Using The Football Expert (K/P) and NFL Draft Scout (K/P) rankings I have listed and categorized the specialists for the 2009 draft.

KICKERS

Will Be Picked

Graham Gano, Florida State

Should Be Picked

Jose Martinez, UTEP

Louie Sakoda, Utah

Borderline

Unlikely

David Buehler, USC

Pat McAfee, West Virginia

Ryan Succop, South Carolina

Sam Swank, Wake Forest

Austin Starr, Indiana

PUNTERS

Will Be Picked

Kevin Huber, Cincinnati

Should Be Picked

Thomas Morstead, SMU

Borderline

Chris Miller, Ball State

Louie Sakoda, Utah

Unlikely

Justin Brantly, Texas A&M

Jake Richardson, Miami (OH)

Matt Fodge, Oklahoma State

Aaron Perez, UCLA

MY PREDICTION: I fully expect Louie Sakoda to be drafted. His ability to kick and punt will be invaluable and too much to pass up for some team. He could find himself selected in the mid-rounds. After Sakoda we may see one more kicker taken. Kevin Huber will most likely be the only punter selected. Not only is it a down year for specialists, teams may actually be figuring out that, while important to a team, the positions just don't need to be drafted.

UP NEXT: The individual positions have been profiled. However I was hoping to do a Miami Dolphins draft analysis prior to the start of the draft Saturday.

NFL Draft Averages - DBs

Previously: QBs, RBs, FBs, WRs, TEs, OTs, OGs, OCs, DTs, DEs, LBs

The defensive backs go under the microscope today. Unfortunately, much like the LBs, there is no distinguishing corner backs form safeties (and certainly no FS/SS categorization) so this is going to be a large group.

The DBs are half the component in the argument of what's more important to stopping an aerial attack: lock down men in the secondary or a pass rush disrupting the timing of the offense and getting to the QB? Regardless of where you stand on that debate, there's no doubt that you at least need ample bodies in the secondary.

Corner backs are usually believed to be failed wide receivers; basically these players are fast and agile but couldn't catch a cold. That generalization is true in some aspects but one of the big underlying reasons for becoming a CB is to hit people. Some players would rather light up a WR on a crossing pattern than catch a TD. Fine by me!

Safeties are generally bigger and stronger than CBs but a tad slower. They are responsible for anything deep, providing help "over the top", and charging into the pack in run support. Again, both CBs and all safeties have been combined into the generic defensive back (DB) category for this analysis.

Below are the statistics for DBs during the past 10 drafts. As you can see this is a big group.

Draft trends for DBs (1999-2008).

Over the last 10 drafts there have been 485 defensive backs (corner backs plus safeties) selected, an average of almost 49 per year. Wow. That is definitely the highest of any position. However, while the position is very important, it isn't one that needs to be filled early. As in the top 5. Only three players from the DB position (CB or S) have been selected in the Top 5 since 1999 (Quentin Jammer, San Diego, 2002; Terence Newman, Dallas, 2003; Sean Taylor, Washington, 2004) and all of them were the 5th pick. Eleven more players made their way into the Top 10. There have been 56 total DBs taken throughout round one since 1999, meaning 42 players at the position were selected outside the Top 10. The position is important and the best players are almost always found in the first two rounds but rarely is their talent overwhelming enough to be taken in the Top 10. If you need a CB or S, picking between picks 15 and 55 will probably yield you the best value.

The minimum amount of DBs taken in any of the last 10 drafts is 45 in 2001. Using my highly scientific categories, a reasonable person will say the we can expect at least that many selected come the end of the day on April 26. So 45 DBs will be drafted. The positional average is 49 which sets the bar for my "should be picked category", adding an additional four players. The 10 year maximum was 52 which adds three players to the "borderline" classification. After that it's anyone's guess, but luck isn't on your side. Of course you only need one team to fall in love with you, not all 32.

Using The Football Expert's CB and safety rankings (supplemented by the folks at NFL Draft Scout, who rank CBs, FSs, and SSs) I've come up with a list of the DBs that fit into my four categories. Like what I did for the linebackers, I spliced the CB and S prospects together into one to form the DB list.

Will Be Picked

Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

Vontae Davis, Illinois

Darius Butler, Connecticut

Sean Smith, Utah

Louis Delmas, Western Michigan

D.J. Moore, Vanderbilt

Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest

Jairus Byrd, Oregon

Coye Francies, San Jose State

Rashad Johnson, Alabama

Patrick Chung, Oregon

Mike Mickens, Cincinnati

Victor Harris, Virginia Tech

Kevin Barnes, Maryland

Sherrod Martin, Troy

William Moore, Missouri

Keenan Lewis, Oregon State

Asher Allen, Georgia

Captain Munnerlyn, South Carolina

Chip Vaughn, Wake Forest

Chris Clemons, Clemson

Michael Hamlin, Clemson

Bradley Fletcher, Iowa

Jerraud Powers, Auburn

David Bruton, Notre Dame

Darcel McBath, Texas Tech

DeAngelo Smith, Cincinnati

Derek Pegues, Mississippi State

Cary Harris, USC

Emmanuel Cook, South Carolina

Brandon Underwood, Cincinnati

Lardarius Webb, Nicholls State

Courtney Greene, Rutgers

Christopher Owens, San Jose State

C.J. Spillman, Marshall

Domonique Johnson, Jackson State

Donald Washington, Ohio State

Morgan Trent, Michigan

Bruce Johnson, Miami (FL)

Otis Wiley, Michigan State

Curtis Taylor, LSU

Londen Fryar, Western Michigan

Trimane Goddard, North Carolina

Mark Parson, Ohio

Greg Toler, St. Pauls

Joe Burnett, Central Florida

Should Be Picked

Brice McCain, Utah

DeAngelo Willingham, Tennessee

Al Afalava, Oregon State

Borderline

Tony Carter, Florida State

Glover Quin, New Mexico

Jamaraca Sanford, Mississippi

Unlikely

Jacob Lacey, Oklahoma State

Ellis Lankster, West Virginia

Lendy Holmes, Oklahoma

Keith Fitzhugh, Mississippi State

MY PREDICTION: I think we have a bit of a down year in terms of DBs for the 2009 draft. There are no players with enough talent to go in the Top 10, as usual, but there are plenty worthy of being selected from the middle of the first to the end of the second. This draft is deep with solid players capable of becoming good starters. Unfortunately it falls off a bit leading me to believe we'll see just below the averag of 49 selected. I'll say 48 DBs in 2009.

UP NEXT: Later today I'll finish the averages feature with a look at both the kickers and punters. I know this is the one you have all been waiting for!

NFL Draft Averages - LBs

Linebacker is, by far, my favorite football position. You basically just get to hit people yet you still have the chance to blitz the QB and drop into coverage for INTs. You get the best of both d-lineman and secondary personnel. For me I'm not sure where my infatuation with the position started. It's kind of like the "chicken or the egg" conundrum; which came first? Did my love of the position draw me to the Dolphins' Zach Thomas or did my idolization of Zach Thomas make me love the position? We may never know. Regardless, during my playing days, when I wasn't fetching water, holding blocking pads, or serving on the scout team, I played one mean third string (maybe lower...) LB.

Anyway, LBs are often leaders on defense. They usually are ones relaying the plays and barking out signals and shifts; pretty much just diagnosing the offensive play and tendencies. They are generally a cerebral bunch, much like centers.

So how important is the position in the NFL? Well, much like wide receivers, the positional depth must be, well, deep. In some situations teams may run out four or five LBs so having strong starters and solid backups is key to the overall defensive strength. Teams usually carry 8-10 LBs at a time. Multiply that by 32 and you get a lot of LBs, so obviously you see a ton drafted each year.

Draft trends for LBs (1999-2008).

Yep, 32 LBs drafted per year, just under the WRs average of 33. It is a primo position and one that offers a lot of depth in prospects. There are more than 250 collegiate football programs producing LBs every year. The least amount taken in the last 10 drafts was 28 in 2002. The maximum of 34 has occurred three teams in the last 10 years. Teams generally look for that impact starter in the first round but those aren't always available. Usually 3 LBs are drafted in round 1, usually the outside guys. You grab your inside run stuffers and depth personnel later. That's why the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds have such high averages.

OK so we can "guarantee" 28 LBs drafted, while another four "should be", leaving us with two borderline players. Outside of the top 34? Sorry, try the UDFA route. Bring on the arbitrary list!

Will Be Picked

Aaron Curry, Wake Forest

Rey Maualuga, USC

Brian Cushing, USC

Clint Sintim, Virginia

James Laurinaitis, Ohio State

Clay Matthews, USC

Marcus Freeman, Ohio State

Gerald McRath, Southern Mississippi

Tyrone McKenzie, South Florida

Cody Brown, Connecticut

Darry Beckwith, LSU

Jason Williams, Western Illinois

Jonathan Casillas, Wisconsin

Scott McKillop, Pittsburgh

Zach Follet, California

DeAndre Levy, Wisconsin

Jason Phillips, TCU

Kaluka Maiava, USC

Nic Harris, Oklahoma

Dannell Ellerbe, Georgia

Corey Smith, Cincinnati

Moise Fokou, Maryland

Worrell Williams, California

Joshua Mauga, Nevada

Lee Robinson, Alcorn State

Daniel Holtzclaw, Eastern Michigan

Antonio Appleby, Virginia

Jasper Brinkley, South Carolina

Should Be Picked

Ashlee Palmer, Mississippi

Mortty Ivy, West Virginia

Kevin Ellison, USC

Frantz Joseph, Florida Atlantic

Borderline

Stephen Hodge, TCU

Robert Francis, Boston College

Unlikely

Victor Butler, Oregon State

Kevin Akins, Boston College

Russell Allen, San Diego State

Dave Philistin, Maryland

It's important to note that since Pro Football Reference doesn't differentiate between inside/outside, combining The Football Expert (OLB/ILB) and NFL Draft Scout (OLB/ILB) lists is dicey. This will be the most inaccurate position in this analysis. What I did was skew the list towards the OLBs since that position carries a higher demand. Of the 38 prospects listed here, 23 are OLBs and 15 are ILBs.

MY PREDICTION: It also doesn't help that some players drafted as OLBs are, currently, listed as DEs. So that throws us off to. But regardless of the shortcomings, I think we are looking at a down year at the position. We'll make the average but only in hindsight because players such as Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown, and Aaron Maybin will become OLBs if drafted to a 3-4 scheme. On this list I think we'll see about 24-26 drafted. The converted DEs will bump the number higher in the future.

UP NEXT: I'll finish up the draft averages on Wednesday with a look at the secondary (both CB and safeties) as well as kickers and punters.

NFL Draft Averages - DEs

Previously: QBs, RBs, FBs, WRs, TEs, OTs, OGs, OCs, DTs

Moving from the inside out, I'll now take a look at the defensive ends. DEs have become a hot commodity in the last 10 years as defenses shifted away from big, strong run stuffers to smaller and quicker pass rushers. The league is more pass oriented now than it was decades ago. With more drop back passers you need more guys that can crash the pocket and disrupt the QB. DE is a premium position, one in which front office folk will use an early pick to get one.

Like DTs, DEs have different roles in different defensive schemes. Generally, DEs in a 3-4 are converted DTs that still have the main job responsibility of stopping the run. On the flip side, 4-3 DEs have contain on outside runs but are primarily focused on getting to the QB and stopping plays in the backfield.

As I mentioned already, the DE position is an important one and there is no better time to find a young impact player than the NFL draft. Below are the statistics for the position over the last 10 drafts (1999-2008).

Draft trends for DEs (1999-2008).

This is the 10th position I have examined and it now ranks behind only the WRs as the "most demanded position". On average there will be 23 DEs selected over the course of a modern NFL draft, with four of those 23 players being selected in the 1st round. The position is demand throughout the draft, with many teams always looking for the next big thing at the position. This is one of the few positions actually considered to be drafted first overall. Two players have been selected at #1 in the last 10 seasons, with mixed results. Penn State's Courtney Brown went #1 to the Browns in 2000 while the Texans selected North Carolina State's athletic freak Mario Williams with the top pick in 2006, much to the ire of Houston fans and to the surprise of draft pundits. Though I think it's worked out pretty well. No less than 20 DEs have been selected in any draft in the last 10 years, setting up our "will be picked" category. The average adds three more prospects to the "should be picked" group and the 10-year maximum of 26 in 2003 means an additional three are borderline. Any player ranked below 26 is in trouble, according to statistics. Again, the rankings come from The Football Expert supplemented by NFL Draft Scout. Here's the list for 2009.

Will Be Picked

Brian Orakpo, Texas

Tyson Jackson, LSU

Everette Brown, Florida State

Aaron Maybin, Penn State

Robert Ayers, Tennessee

Connor Barwin, Cincinnati

Larry English, Northern Illinois

Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech

Paul Kruger, Utah

Lawrence Sidbury, Richmond

Dave Veikune, Hawaii

Brandon Williams, Texas Tech

Kyle Moore, USC

Matt Shaughnessy, Wisconsin

Michael Bennett, Texas A&M

Phillip Hunt, Houston

Zach Potter, Nebraska

Ian Campbell, Kansas State

Derek Walker, Illinois

Pannel Egboh, Stanford

Should Be Picked

Will Davis, Illinois

Rulon Davis, California

Orion Martin, Virginia Tech

Borderline

Stryker Sulak, Missouri

Henry Melton, Texas

Tim Jamison, Michigan

Unlikely

Pierre Walters, Eastern Illinois

Will Johnson, Michigan

Everette Pedescleaux, Northern Iowa

Jeremy Navarre, Maryland

MY PREDICTION: At least four (Orakpo, Brown, Maybin, and Jackson) will go in round one, though there is the possibility of one or two of the following sneaking in from picks 19 through 32: Ayers, Barwin, and Johnson. My favorite of the bunch is Barwin, though he'll become a 3-4 OLB. From a pure 4-3 DE standpoint I like Brown, and Jackson is by far the best candidate for 3-4 DE. I think we'll see 24 of these listed DEs drafted, just one above the normal.

UP NEXT: Later today I'll take a look at the LBs, my favorite football position. Unfortunately the statistics don't let me dictate ILB/OLB so the analysis will be interesting to say the least.