Wednesday, April 1, 2009

NFL Draft Averages - QBs

The NFL Draft Averages feature will focus on what has happened over the last 10 NFL drafts. Why is this useful? We can use the past to help determine the future. Can this analysis predict where a players is going? No. Can it predict who may be chosen? In a way. This is just a rough estimate using past drafts to perhaps predict what will happen this year.

For the NFL Draft Averages feature I have examined the players selected at each football position over the last 10 drafts (1999 through 2008). I have broken down how each position fares in all rounds in hopes to see what may occur on April 25th and 26th.

First up are the QBs.

The "field generals" are widely viewed as the most important position on a team. As such they tend to be drafted early and often.

Draft trends for QBs (1999-2008).

In the last 10 years there have been 132 QBs selected, an average of 13 per year. There has never been less than 11 or more than 17. Using these numbers we can determine safety levels for our prospects. Basically, history shows that we'll see at least 11 QBs taken during the draft. Therefore the top 11 QBs are safe. Well how do we determine these top 11? For this feature I have turned to the folks at The Football Expert, specifically Michael Abromowitz. Using his rankings I have determined what players will and won't be drafted. It's an inexact science, sure, but still insightful. This analysis also details when a run on a position may occur or the type of players available on the undrafted free agent market. Obviously these rankings are arbitrary; you can find these players shuffled many different ways across the Internet. This randomization of player rankings will reduce the accuracy of this exercise, however, I believe it is still informative enough. Plus it'll be a nice reference on draft day.

Back to the QBs. Based on the statistics, who gets drafted? There have never been less than 11 QBs selected so they are "safe". The average, though, is 13. These next two players are statistically favored to be drafted though it is not a guarantee. The maximum ever selected is 17. These four people will definitely be sweating draft day. The fact that 2009 is not seen as a banner year for the position doesn't bode well for these men. I have also included a few with a long-shot to be drafted. These players are ranked outside of the statistics. For QBs they are the ones that are ranked 18th or lower. Bring on the list!

Will Be Picked

Matthew Stafford, Georgia

Mark Sanchez, USC

Josh Freeman, Kansas State

Pat White, West Virginia

Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State

Stephen McGee, Texas A&M

Tom Brandstater, Fresno State

Nate Davis, Ball State

Jason Boltus, Hartwick

John Parker Wilson, Alabama

Graham Harrell, Texas Tech

Should Be Picked

Hunter Cantwell, Louisville

Curtis Painter, Purdue


Nathan Brown, Central Arkansas

Cullen Harper, Clemson

Todd Boeckman, Ohio State

Chase Holbrook, New Mexico State


Brian Hoyer, Michigan State

Mike Reilly, Central Washington

Chase Daniel, Missouri

David Johnson, Tulsa

Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State

Billy Malone, Abilene Christian

Some folks believe we will reach the first round average for QBs. Do you think three will be taken in the first 32 picks? I doubt it. I don't think Stafford, Sanchez, and Freeman are talented enough to all go in round one.

Since it is a down year for the position I'd be nervous if I were classified as borderline or lower.

MY PREDICTION: Based on the talent available I say this draft shapes up like last year. I can see two QBs take in round one and 13 overall. However, I'd expect a larger number of guys going in rounds three and four than usual. No matter who or how many are taken in round one, don't expect the same kind of results as Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco produced in 2008.

UP NEXT: Running backs. Solid year? Who should be worried? What do the statistics say? Find out on Sunday.

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