Friday, April 3, 2009

And the Denver/Chicago Trade Winner is...

With the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears agreeing on a trade that centers around Jay Cutler, instant analysis and snap judgments are made about who won the deal. The answer is inconclusive. And it's not as simple as choosing the Bears or Broncos. In reality, sports trades aren't absolutes, especially when they involve draft picks teams try to turn into productive players.

Not only could Denver or Chicago come out as the winner, they both could. Or they could both lose. What if Jay Cutler blows out a knee or suffers a string of concussions? Chicago loses. What if Denver turns the plethora of picks into new versions of Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich, and Brian Bosworth? The truth is their are too many variables and what-if scenarios to determine a clear-cut winner less than 24 hours after the deal went down.

But it is a publicity seller and ratings grabber. That's why papers and sports broadcasts do it. I can't blame them.

But keep this in mind as the 2009, 2010, and even 2011 season passes. We won't truly know who came out on top until March 2012, three years from now. Then Cutler will have played three seasons in the Windy City. Then Denver's draft choices will have had two or three seasons to make an impact. To know who the real winner is you'll have to wait.

The envelope, please...

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