Sunday, April 12, 2009

NFL Draft Averages - OGs

Lucky number seven in my draft trends feature goes to the OGs. Guards are considered a dime a dozen. They are the easiest offensive line position to replace. Failed tackles and centers will routinely shift and become guards. This doesn't mean guards aren't important. Each part of the offensive line has its responsibilities. For the guards they are required to have the strength to blow DTs off the ball but also the speed to reach for LBs or pull around the corner.

Since its easy to find players that can play the position, guards are not usually drafted early. There may be one standout every year who could breach the first round but generally the position gets the most attention in rounds two through five. The 2009 class is a little weak. Duke Robinson is the only one that could make it into round one though that seems unlikely. This is not a good draft fro impact starters at OG.

Below are the statistics for the position for the last 10 drafts (1999-2008). Using this information we can predict what may occur on April 25 and 26.

Draft trends for OGs (1999-2008).

OGs are drafted two per round on average. They are more likely to be selected in the mid or late rounds than early. Only eight were selected in 2008, a stark difference versus the 28 OTs selected. Almost three times that money were selected in 1999, the data maximum. 152 have been chosen since the '99 draft. Our breakdown for guards is as follows: eight will be picked, another seven are likely, and another eight are borderline. Anyone ranked lower than 23 should hold their breath. It could be a long day for them.

Will Be Picked

Duke Robinson, Oklahoma

Kraig Urbik, Wisconsin

Andy Levitre, Oregon State

Trevor Canfield, Cincinnati

Herman Johnson, LSU

Tyronne Green, Auburn

Ray Feinga, BYU

Cedric Dockery, Texas

Should Be Picked

Greg Isdaner, West Virginia

Louis Vasquez, Texas Tech

Rich Stancheck, West Virginia

Andy Kemp, Wisconsin

Jaimie Thomas, Maryland

Roger Allen, Missouri Western

Anthony Parker, Tennessee


Brandon Walker, Oklahoma

Travis Bright, BYU

Matt Slauson, Nebraska

Dan Gay, Baylor

Seth Olsen, Iowa

Rich Ohrnberger, Penn State

C.J. Davis, Pittsburgh

Juan Garcia, Washington


Maurice Miller, Mississippi

Chris Jamison, Troy

Tim Henderson, Northwestern State

Paul Fanaika, Arizona State

MY PREDICTION: No guards go in round one in 2009. Robinson get selected first, between picks 32 and 38. Two more will be chosen in round two. This is a weak OG class so I'm not sure we'll make the average of 15. I'm thinking 13 or 14 hear their name called. The best fight is for the #2 spot behind Robinson. Urbik, Levitre, Canfield, and Johnson all have a chance to be the second guard selected. Who will it be? My money is on Urbik, taken somewhere between picks 50-60 with Johnson squeaking into round two during the last few picks.

UP NEXT: The final offensive position - center - will be profiled on Wednesday morning. Later that day the first defensive position will debut. I'll be sticking with the big fellas in the trenches.

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