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Well Penn State's season started even better than many expected, with a 66-10 victory over the FCS Chanticleers (read roosters). Daryll Clark started, as expected, and played the first few drives before giving way to Pat Devlin. Clark also played a series or two to start the second half. He was very effective and looked string and poised in the pocket, completing 11 of 14 passes for 146 yards and 1 TD. Devlin proved the competition had been close all spring and summer. He went 5 of 8 for 83 yards and made some beautiful throws. The highlight, however, had to be the effectiveness of the ground game. Evan Royster, Stephfon Green, Brent Carter, and true freshman Brandon Beachum all saw time, with Royster getting the start. Royster only got 8 touches for 64 yards but scored 3 TDs. Green added 10 carries for 89 yards and 2 TDs while Carter was handed the rock 9 times for 67 yards. Beachum came in late in mop up duty and had 8 carries for 43 yards plus a TD. Derrick Williams had only 2 catches but contributed his first ever kickoff return for a TD after Coastal Carolina cut the Penn State lead to 14-7. Unfortunately the defense looked mediocre. The secondary seemed slow to react and the linebackers missed some assignments and botched a few play calls. The defensive line did look strong, however. Some work must be done in anticipation for Oregon State next week.
Overall it was a strong performance, probably better than some expected. The biggest plus was no turnovers. However the win must be kept in perspective. It was lowly Coastal Carolina, after all. Something Pitt Alum and ESPN analyst wa smore than pleased to point out.
During highlights shown in between games at the ESPN studios, Mark May tried to make as many jabs as he could against the Nittany Lions. While the Penn State/Coastal Carolina score was shown following the game highlights, Mark May stated "It's Coastal Carolina. What, wasn't [insert crappy school here] available?". I missed what school he said. If anyone know, let me know. Then, after Chris Fowler read the score, May said "Yeah BUT IT'S COASTAL CAROLINA!!!". May's partner Lou Holtz then added this gem: "Yeah and I'm Lou Holtz and you're Mark May.". Haha. However, May wasn't done. He then psoed a question to Fowler and Holtz. May, visibly upset and enraged, said "Did Coastal Carolina have a football team 8 years ago?". A rhetorical question, because Holtz and Fowler know they didn't, as does May. Following the Penn State highlights, the ESPN crew went to the Pitt/Bowling Green game. Pitt lost and May preceded to lambast them, as he should. But what really irks me is his complete contempt for Penn State. As if Pitt hasn't played any cupcakes. Is Bowling Green really that much more prestigious than Coastal Caroline? Hell no! Bowling Green has been around for 89 years. They have a total of 19 All Americans and 8 bowl appearances, going 4-4. Wow, Mark, wow. They are a MAC team. Sure they're better than Coastal Carolina. But how is playing Bowling Green any better than Coastal Carolina? He would have said the same thing about Penn State if they were playing Bowling Green. Mark May is a hypocritical, completely biased, ass that has it out for Penn State (just like Colin Cowherd).
Anyway, revel in the blowout win for the rest of the night Penn State fans. There are more important games to come, starting next week vs Oregon State. Good start. Keep it going.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Penn State dominates Coastal Carolina, Mark May whines
Friday, August 29, 2008
My expectations for Penn State football this season
This is going to be real short and sweet. Penn State kicks off the 2008 season tomorrow versus FCS school Coastal Carolina. They enter the season with relatively high hopes, the same kind the team and fan base have had since 2005. They expect to contend for a Big ten title and should not finish lower than 3rd.
With the amount of talent returning on offense this team should control the clock and therefore the game. The entire o-line returns in tact. We have 3 senior WRs. Evan Royster and Stephfon Green provide a dynamic 1-2 punch. Royster is vastly underrated. It all comes down to QBs Daryll Clark and Pat Devlin. Clark will start tomorrow but Devlin will see plenty of snaps early in the season. If Clark can play consistent, turnover free football, Penn State could surprise a few people.
Defense has been the staple of PSU football in recent years but this year they have some big question marks and depth issues. How will the linebacking corps handle the loss of senior Sena Lee? Can former walk-on Josh Hull step up in the middle? Will Navorro Bowman or Bani Gbayu become playmakers opposite Tyrell Sales? How will the depth at DT withstand a 13 game schedule? Is the secondary, worst unit on the team last year, improved? Despite all of these questions on defense, the team still has high hopes.
I see Penn State going 10-2 in Big Ten play with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State. They should finally beat Michigan. They will beat Illinois. At 10-2 the worse bowl game they'd be in is the Outback Bowl (Big Ten #3). They could sneak into the Capital One Bowl if Wisconsin and Ohio State make the BCS. Not a bad year.
However, much like my NCAA 09 simulations, I could see Penn State finishing 9-4. They have a difficult October schedule and they could be bitten by looking ahead a game or two.
In the end, Penn State should finish somewhere between 11-2 and 9-4. Cut that down the middle and you get 10-3. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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Predictions
The Ultimate NCAA Football 09 Predictions: Penn State
Over the past few days I have posted the results from my NCAA Football 09 simulations. On Wednesday, a 1-season simulation was posted. The results were not the best for Penn State. A 7-6 record, including an Alamo Bowl game loss to Texas A&M. Not the best by a long shot. Of course we know that doing one simulation using theoretical players, play-calling, injuries, etc. can't tell us much. A larger data set could. Therefore I simulated the 2008 college football season 10 times using EA Sports NCAA Football 09. Today's post focuses solely on Penn State and the results for them during the 10 simulations. How should Penn State fair this season according to the video game results? The answer seems to be in line with what many "experts" and Nittany Lion fans believe. Below is the final Top 25 after aggregating the 10 simulation results together. Overall the simulation seems to Penn State finishing ranked 23rd in the nation at the conclusion of the 2008-2009 college football season. This seems reasonable. A ranking in that vicinity would most likely mean the team wins 9 games. There are two scenarios as to how PSU could finish there: go 8-4 and win their bowl game or go 9-3 and lose their bowl game. A 9-4 record usually slots a team between spots 16-25. Final Rank Team 1 Florida 2 Ohio State 3 Wisconsin 4 USC 5 Missouri 6 West Virginia 7 Oklahoma 8 Clemson 9 Arizona State 10 Tennessee 11 Florida State 12 Texas 13 Texas Tech 14 BYU 15 LSU 16 Boise State 17 Texas A&M 18 Georgia 19 South Carolina 20 Virginia Tech 21 Auburn 22 Nebraska 23 Penn State 24 Pittsburgh 25 UCF 10-sim Average Team Wins Losses Rank Florida 12 2 6 Ohio State 11 2 7 Wisconsin 11 2 7 USC 11 2 8 Missouri 12 2 9 West Virginia 12 1 9 Oklahoma 12 2 9 Clemson 12 2 11 Arizona State 11 3 15 Tennessee 10 3 15 Florida State 10 3 20 Texas 10 3 21 Texas Tech 10 3 22 BYU 10 3 26 LSU 9 4 27 Boise State 10 3 27 Texas A&M 10 4 27 Georgia 9 4 28 South Carolina 9 4 31 Virginia Tech 9 4 32 Auburn 9 4 34 Nebraska 9 4 34 Penn State 9 4 36 Pittsburgh 9 4 39 UCF 9 4 40 Team Avg. Wins Avg. Losses Avg. Rank Δ Rank Adj. Rank Oregon State 5 7 82 39 75 Boston College 6 7 71 28 65 Iowa 4 8 91 22 81 Georgia 9 4 28 17 18 Illinois 7 6 51 15 33 Minnesota 5 8 83 12 76 Penn State 9 4 36 10 23 LSU 9 4 27 9 15 Oklahoma 12 2 9 5 7 Auburn 9 4 34 5 21 The chart below shows 10-sim. Average wins, losses, and rank, as well as their change in rank and adjusted final rank. Teams included are Penn State, the rest of the Big Ten, some of this years top ranked teams, and any teams that may be of interest to Penn State fans (Notre Dame, Oregon State, etc.). 10-sim Avg. Team Ws Ls Rank Δ Rank Adj. Rank Alabama 7 6 48 7 29 Auburn 9 4 34 5 21 Boston College 6 7 71 28 65 Florida 12 2 6 -4 1 Florida State 10 3 20 -18 11 Georgia 9 4 28 17 18 Illinois 7 6 51 15 33 Indiana 7 6 60 -15 50 Iowa 4 8 91 22 81 LSU 9 4 27 9 15 Michigan 8 5 49 3 30 Michigan State 8 5 51 0 34 Minnesota 5 8 83 12 76 Missouri 12 2 9 -2 5 Northwestern 6 7 73 -6 67 Notre Dame 7 5 55 -11 42 Ohio State 11 2 7 -1 2 Oklahoma 12 2 9 5 7 Oregon State 5 7 82 39 75 Penn State 9 4 36 10 23 Pittsburgh 9 4 39 -14 24 Purdue 7 5 55 -1 43 Rutgers 8 5 52 -18 37 Texas 10 3 21 2 12 USC 11 2 8 0 4 West Virginia 12 1 9 -2 6 Wisconsin 11 2 7 -6 3 Team Top 25 Top 10 Top 5 National Champs. Alabama 4 1 0 0 Auburn 6 0 0 0 Boston College 1 0 0 0 Florida 10 9 6 3 Florida State 8 2 2 0 Georgia 7 2 2 0 Illinois 3 1 0 0 Indiana 1 0 0 0 Iowa 0 0 0 0 LSU 6 4 1 0 Michigan 3 1 0 0 Michigan State 2 0 0 0 Minnesota 0 0 0 0 Missouri 10 6 3 1 Northwestern 0 0 0 0 Notre Dame 2 0 0 0 Ohio State 10 9 4 1 Oklahoma 9 7 6 0 Oregon State 0 0 0 0 Penn State 4 2 0 0 Pittsburgh 5 0 0 0 Purdue 2 0 0 0 Rutgers 1 0 0 0 Texas 7 6 2 0 USC 10 5 4 1 West Virginia 9 8 5 1 Wisconsin 10 8 5 0 I was too lazy to accumulate and compile every Bowl game result for every team but I did summarize the BCS games: National Championship, Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta. Here is a look at them, simulation by simulation… Sim 1 Sim 2 BCS National Championship BCS National Championship USC Missouri Clemson Missouri 41 20 31 37 Rose Bowl Rose Bowl Michigan Washington Penn State USC 38 34 14 21 Orange Bowl Orange Bowl Clemson West Virginia Oklahoma West Virginia 42 20 35 42 Sugar Bowl Sugar Bowl South Carolina Ohio State LSU Boise State 7 42 41 34 Fiesta Bowl Fiesta Bowl Florida State Texas Tech Wisconsin Florida 26 7 27 31 Sim 3 Sim 4 BCS National Championship BCS National Championship West Virginia Tennessee Florida West Virginia 14 40 20 31 Rose Bowl Rose Bowl Ohio State USC Ohio State USC 42 28 23 40 Orange Bowl Orange Bowl Clemson Wisconsin Florida State Illinois 29 52 21 17 Sugar Bowl Sugar Bowl Hawai'i LSU Georgia Arizona State 13 35 28 24 Fiesta Bowl Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma Notre Dame Texas A&M BYU 24 17 49 27 Sim 5 Sim 6 BCS National Championship BCS National Championship Clemson Oklahoma Arizona State Florida 48 34 13 55 Rose Bowl Rose Bowl Wisconsin USC Ohio State San Diego State 24 14 13 17 Orange Bowl Orange Bowl Ohio State West Virginia Georgia Tech West Virginia 24 34 24 21 Sugar Bowl Sugar Bowl Georgia Oregon Boise State Wisconsin 45 28 33 37 Fiesta Bowl Fiesta Bowl Missouri Florida State Oklahoma South Carolina 32 28 45 21 Sim 7 Sim 8 BCS National Championship BCS National Championship BYU Clemson Texas Ohio State 38 45 14 45 Rose Bowl Rose Bowl Ohio State Arizona State Boise State USC 35 0 14 21 Orange Bowl Orange Bowl Missouri West Virginia Florida State Pittsburgh 59 21 Sugar Bowl Sugar Bowl Florida Wisconsin Florida Wisconsin 53 34 48 7 Fiesta Bowl Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma Tennessee Oklahoma Tennessee 48 10 30 16 Sim 9 Sim 10 BCS National Championship BCS National Championship Florida West Virginia Wisconsin Florida 31 22 30 44 Rose Bowl Rose Bowl Wisconsin USC Penn State USC 42 16 16 42 Orange Bowl Orange Bowl Clemson South Carolina Miami Pittsburgh 24 20 33 22 Sugar Bowl Sugar Bowl Texas Northern Illinois Oklahoma LSU 42 14 21 31 Fiesta Bowl Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma Ohio State Missouri Oregon 46 28 48 17 Hey, we made the Rose Bowl twice! Unfortunately they were both losses. At least the computer thinks there is a chance for a Big Ten Championship (10%) or highly successful season. A lot of variance and not too many duplicates overall. There were a lot of different teams taking their game to the big bowls. Good for them. What are the chance of Arizona State, Northern Illinois, Michigan, Hawai'i, and Notre Dame doing that this year? Probably not too high. But, hey, as last year proved, there is a reason for the cliché anything can happen. For Penn State I chronicled all 10 simulations (for better or worse). The results are below, including Bowl Games (if we made one)... Penn State Sim 1 Result Penn State Sim 2 Result vs Coastal Carolina 35-7 W vs Coastal Carolina 37-0 W vs Oregon State 27-14 W vs Oregon State 48-21 W at Syracuse 10-13 L at Syracuse 34-13 W Temple 60-7 W Temple 37-10 W Illinois 35-31 W Illinois 37-34 OT W at Purdue 17-14 W at Purdue 52-21 W at Wisconsin 20-27 OT L at Wisconsin 42-28 W Michigan 30-51 L Michigan 31-14 W at Ohio State 13-30 L at Ohio State 31-24 W BYE ----- ----- BYE ----- ----- at Iowa 39-16 W at Iowa 36-0 W Indiana 31-35 L Indiana 34-23 W Michigan State 41-30 W Michigan State 58-35 W Bowl Game Alamo Result Bowl Game Rose Result vs Texas A&M 24-37 L vs USC 14-21 L Final Record Wins Losses Final Record Wins Losses 7 6 12 1 Penn State Sim 3 Result Penn State Sim 4 Result vs Coastal Carolina 62-7 W vs Coastal Carolina 62-6 W vs Oregon State 27-6 W vs Oregon State 39-3 W at Syracuse 37-10 W at Syracuse 41-16 W Temple 51-20 W Temple 41-7 W Illinois 21-31 L Illinois 17-21 L at Purdue 35-28 W at Purdue 45-6 W at Wisconsin 20-27 L at Wisconsin 38-34 W Michigan 41-14 W Michigan 22-20 W at Ohio State 42-39 W at Ohio State 17-35 L BYE ----- ----- BYE ----- ----- at Iowa 38-13 W at Iowa 48-6 W Indiana 33-35 L Indiana 31-22 W Michigan State 17-30 L Michigan State 26-27 L Bowl Game Insight Result Bowl Game Outback Result vs Oklahoma State 33-28 W vs Ole Miss 29-21 W Final Record Wins Losses Final Record Wins Losses 9 4 10 3 Penn State Sim 5 Result Penn State Sim 6 Result vs Coastal Carolina 52-3 W vs Coastal Carolina 56-10 W vs Oregon State 34-28 W vs Oregon State 29-27 W at Syracuse 17-10 W at Syracuse 34-17 W Temple 38-7 W Temple 43-17 W Illinois 24-6 W Illinois 38-16 W at Purdue 28-21 W at Purdue 30-27 W at Wisconsin 7-35 L at Wisconsin 35-45 L Michigan 24-28 L Michigan 21-28 L at Ohio State 14-38 L at Ohio State 24-34 L BYE ----- ----- BYE ----- ----- at Iowa 48-17 W at Iowa 54-7 W Indiana 41-10 W Indiana 41-40 W Michigan State 38-12 W Michigan State 27-17 W Bowl Game Outback Result Bowl Game Outback Result vs Auburn 31-34 L vs Ole Miss 16-37 L Final Record Wins Losses Final Record Wins Losses 9 4 9 4 Penn State Sim 7 Result Penn State Sim 8 Result vs Coastal Carolina 52-6 W vs Coastal Carolina 63-7 W vs Oregon State 31-17 W vs Oregon State 17-10 W at Syracuse 43-14 W at Syracuse 52-10 W Temple 21-9 W Temple 49-13 W Illinois 41-17 W Illinois 38-7 W at Purdue 28-44 L at Purdue 25-31 L at Wisconsin 17-48 L at Wisconsin 17-49 L Michigan 17-38 L Michigan 14-24 L at Ohio State 17-49 L at Ohio State 14-56 L BYE ----- ----- BYE ----- ----- at Iowa 49-14 W at Iowa 52-17 W Indiana 45-35 W Indiana 45-7 W Michigan State 42-16 W Michigan State 24-30 OT L Bowl Game Outback Result Bowl Game Liberty Result vs South Carolina 38-55 L vs UCF 27-26 W Final Record Wins Losses Final Record Wins Losses 8 5 8 5 Penn State Sim 9 Result Penn State Sim 10 Result vs Coastal Carolina 37-10 W vs Coastal Carolina 35-3 W vs Oregon State 28-15 W vs Oregon State 61-14 W at Syracuse 28-7 W at Syracuse 24-6 W Temple 21-24 OT L Temple 24-3 W Illinois 41-20 W Illinois 38-21 W at Purdue 19-21 L at Purdue 31-13 W at Wisconsin 9-28 L at Wisconsin 31-42 L Michigan 24-25 L Michigan 24-6 W at Ohio State 14-31 L at Ohio State 31-54 L BYE ----- ----- BYE ----- ----- at Iowa 38-35 W at Iowa 35-10 W Indiana 31-34 L Indiana 27-26 W Michigan State 40-33 W Michigan State 49-14 W Bowl Game Insight Result Bowl Game Rose Result vs Arizona 16-24 L vs USC 16-42 L Final Record Wins Losses Final Record Wins Losses 6 7 10 3 Simulations 2 and 10 are the best. Number 2 resulted in a Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth and 10 took us there as well, but not Big Ten title. Sim. number 9 was dreadful. A losing record? What is this, 2004? Highly unlikely, though based on this there is a 10% chance. God, I hope not. You may be going through the simulations to see how fared against each team or what happened in each Bowl Game. No need, I have you covered. 10-sim Average Wins Losses 9 4 Bowl Game Appearances Wins Losses Outback 4 1 3 Insight 2 1 1 Rose 2 0 2 Alamo 1 0 1 Liberty 1 1 0 vs. Opponents Wins Losses Win % vs. Coastal Carolina 10 0 100% vs. Oregon State 10 0 100% at Syracuse 9 1 90% Temple 9 1 90% Illinois 8 2 80% at Purdue 7 3 70% at Wisconsin 2 8 20% Michigan 4 6 40% at Ohio State 2 8 20% at Iowa 10 0 100% Indiana 7 3 70% Michigan State 7 3 70% Well that's not a very good bowl record (3-7). We made the Outback Bowl 4 times. I'm not sure how the fan base would react if that were to happen this year. I think most are expecting a Capital One berth (as the Big Ten's #2 or 3 team). Sadly, we didn't make that game once. We also ended up at some pretty crappy bowls (Insight, Liberty). Looking at our record versus each of the opponents on are schedule this year could be hazardous to your health. While there was at least 1 expected outcome (100% chance of beating Coastal Carolina) there were also a few surprising (100% chance of beating Oregon State, Iowa) as well as disturbing ones. There is a 10% chance of losing to Syracuse and Temple? I hope not. I do like the 80% success rate against overrated Illinois. However the heart of the schedule, the gauntlet in successive weeks at Wisconsin, versus Michigan, and at Ohio State was disheartening. Against the Big Ten favorites, Ohio State and Wisconsin, we won 4 of 20 games (2 versus each team). In reality, I don't dispute this. I think Ohio State and Wisconsin are better than us. I actually would place our chances at taking down Ohio State in Columbus at less than 10%. However I may bump up our chances at Wisconsin, but not by much. Maybe to 30%. The Michigan results hurt much more. Does EA take into account how much we suck against them? Maybe. Only 4 wins against a mediocre team in Beaver Stadium? I hope not. Our win % for that game should be closer to 60%. Elsewhere, the Iowa result surprised me just because we were a perfect 10 for 10. We are better but winning every time was surprising. The Indiana and Michigan State games are at home and could be the last 2 of JoePa's career. I think our chances of winning the Indiana game are ~90%. Michigan State probably is right where it should be. I definitely call this simulation analysis a success. I think Penn State finished right around where they should, on average. The 9-4 record seems acceptable for now. The game seems to agree that October 11th-25th will suck for us. Hopefully we will win 1 of the 3. I hope you enjoyed this little project. I'd like to do the same for Madden and will attempt to next week, prior to the start of the season. I'm not promising anything but I may get to it. Thanks for reading.
In order to evaluate the teams I came up with a few different variables. The data set includes 10-sim. Average wins, losses, and rank, change in rank, adjusted rank, and the number a team appears in the Top 25, 10, 5, as well as any National Championships won. The following text is a copy of the explanation from my post yesterday. How did I determine average rank and if a team was over- or underrated? Glad you asked. You probably figured out how I got the average wins/losses per team. I, um, averaged their wins/losses over the 10 simulations. Easy enough. The number of appearances in the Top 25, 10, and 5 were simply summed across the 10 simulations as well. The other things took a little creativity.
The average rank is what it is. I took an average of every team's final ranking over the 10 sims. Unfortunately NCAA 09 does not rank any team past 25 at the end of the season (though they do rank them before it). So in order to take a non-ranked season into account I had to, crudely, apply a number to each team. For simplicity I based it on wins (note: I kept the simulations Top 25; those teams' ranks were not altered). Any team that receives an NR (not ranked) needed a value. I gave any team with 11 or 10 wins not in the Top 25 an arbitrary value of 30. Common sense will say that, ultimately, these teams just missed the Top 25 cut and would have been (most likely) ranked between 26 and 35. A rank of 30 fits in there nicely. This type of ranking percolated all the way down to teams finishing with 0 wins (I kept track of 83 of the teams in the game). A team outside of the Top 25 with 9 wins received a rank of 40. Teams with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 wins garnered a 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, respectively. The few teams that had awful seasons (2 wins or less) were ranked 110. I know that isn't an ideal way to rank teams out of the Top 25. But without the game doing it, how else can I do it? I think this way is fair.
The average ranks were used to create the adjusted rank. This is simply sorting the average ranks from lowest to highest. The lowest average rank (Florida, 6) was assigned adjusted rank #1 and the lowest average rank (Vanderbilt, 104) given #83. The lower part of the ranked teams is a bit useless since I am missing 37 teams in the study. However it is doubtful that any of those missing teams would ever crack the Top 50 (I used EAs preseason Top 75 and then a few sparse extras that turned up in any of the 10 simulations, that's how I got to 83 teams).
OK all that is left is how you determine how is over- and underrated. To do this I simply took a team's adjusted rank (i.e. Florida at #1) and subtracted it from EAs preseason rank (Florida is 5). In this case Florida would boast a -4. Any number below 0 indicates an underrated team. The larger the number, the more underrated. Overrated is simply the opposite. Georgia was EAs preseason #1. In this study their adjusted rank was 18. That is a +17. That's bad. The larger the positive number, the more overrated they were in the study.
So there ya go. That's how I did it. I feel like I am writing a scientific paper. Enough with methods. On to more Penn State results (resume new content)!
Here are the average wins/losses and rank for the final Top 25...
So there Penn State is, at an average rank of 36th in the nation which is adjusted to 23rd. Not too bad I guess. Except EA's ratings started Penn State at 13th. Eep. Penn State was/is overrated according to the game. The chart below is an excerpt from the overrated chart created from the 10 simulations. Each of these teams was deemed as overrated according to their average starting rank and end rank.
For Penn State to not be considered overrated they'd have to finish no lower than 17th, if we give the the underrated/overrated change in rank a leeway of +/- 4. Penn State would have to win 10 games to meet exopectations this season. That is certainly attainable. I alluded to this at the beginning with their final rank, but how many wins did PSU average over the 10 simulations?
So Penn State averaged 9 wins and 4 losses as predicted. They are expected to finish 23rd, 1 spot ahead of state rival Pittsburgh (who was underrated). A record of 9-4 would place Penn State 3rd in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State (11-2, ranked 2nd) and Wisconsin (11-2, ranked 3rd). With the distance between these three teams leads me to this conclusion: Ohio State wins the Big Ten and then the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin gets an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl and wins it, Penn State heads to the Capital One bowl and loses. I have Penn State losing the Bowl Game based on the fact that the 3rd place team in the Big Ten would not be ranked so low prior to the bowl, especially with a record of 9-3. Penn State most likely would be ranked 14th-17th prior to the game. A loss drops them to 9-4 and a 23rd rank. The chart below is the second set of data from the analysis. This chart includes the number of teams a team made the Top 25, 10, 5, and won National Championships. Again it only includes Penn State, the rest of the Big Ten, some of this years top ranked teams, and any teams that may be of interest to Penn State fans.
