Saturday, August 30, 2008

Penn State dominates Coastal Carolina, Mark May whines

Well Penn State's season started even better than many expected, with a 66-10 victory over the FCS Chanticleers (read roosters). Daryll Clark started, as expected, and played the first few drives before giving way to Pat Devlin. Clark also played a series or two to start the second half. He was very effective and looked string and poised in the pocket, completing 11 of 14 passes for 146 yards and 1 TD. Devlin proved the competition had been close all spring and summer. He went 5 of 8 for 83 yards and made some beautiful throws. The highlight, however, had to be the effectiveness of the ground game. Evan Royster, Stephfon Green, Brent Carter, and true freshman Brandon Beachum all saw time, with Royster getting the start. Royster only got 8 touches for 64 yards but scored 3 TDs. Green added 10 carries for 89 yards and 2 TDs while Carter was handed the rock 9 times for 67 yards. Beachum came in late in mop up duty and had 8 carries for 43 yards plus a TD. Derrick Williams had only 2 catches but contributed his first ever kickoff return for a TD after Coastal Carolina cut the Penn State lead to 14-7. Unfortunately the defense looked mediocre. The secondary seemed slow to react and the linebackers missed some assignments and botched a few play calls. The defensive line did look strong, however. Some work must be done in anticipation for Oregon State next week.

Overall it was a strong performance, probably better than some expected. The biggest plus was no turnovers. However the win must be kept in perspective. It was lowly Coastal Carolina, after all. Something Pitt Alum and ESPN analyst wa smore than pleased to point out.

During highlights shown in between games at the ESPN studios, Mark May tried to make as many jabs as he could against the Nittany Lions. While the Penn State/Coastal Carolina score was shown following the game highlights, Mark May stated "It's Coastal Carolina. What, wasn't [insert crappy school here] available?". I missed what school he said. If anyone know, let me know. Then, after Chris Fowler read the score, May said "Yeah BUT IT'S COASTAL CAROLINA!!!". May's partner Lou Holtz then added this gem: "Yeah and I'm Lou Holtz and you're Mark May.". Haha. However, May wasn't done. He then psoed a question to Fowler and Holtz. May, visibly upset and enraged, said "Did Coastal Carolina have a football team 8 years ago?". A rhetorical question, because Holtz and Fowler know they didn't, as does May. Following the Penn State highlights, the ESPN crew went to the Pitt/Bowling Green game. Pitt lost and May preceded to lambast them, as he should. But what really irks me is his complete contempt for Penn State. As if Pitt hasn't played any cupcakes. Is Bowling Green really that much more prestigious than Coastal Caroline? Hell no! Bowling Green has been around for 89 years. They have a total of 19 All Americans and 8 bowl appearances, going 4-4. Wow, Mark, wow. They are a MAC team. Sure they're better than Coastal Carolina. But how is playing Bowling Green any better than Coastal Carolina? He would have said the same thing about Penn State if they were playing Bowling Green. Mark May is a hypocritical, completely biased, ass that has it out for Penn State (just like Colin Cowherd).

Anyway, revel in the blowout win for the rest of the night Penn State fans. There are more important games to come, starting next week vs Oregon State. Good start. Keep it going.

Friday, August 29, 2008

My expectations for Penn State football this season

This is going to be real short and sweet. Penn State kicks off the 2008 season tomorrow versus FCS school Coastal Carolina. They enter the season with relatively high hopes, the same kind the team and fan base have had since 2005. They expect to contend for a Big ten title and should not finish lower than 3rd.

With the amount of talent returning on offense this team should control the clock and therefore the game. The entire o-line returns in tact. We have 3 senior WRs. Evan Royster and Stephfon Green provide a dynamic 1-2 punch. Royster is vastly underrated. It all comes down to QBs Daryll Clark and Pat Devlin. Clark will start tomorrow but Devlin will see plenty of snaps early in the season. If Clark can play consistent, turnover free football, Penn State could surprise a few people.

Defense has been the staple of PSU football in recent years but this year they have some big question marks and depth issues. How will the linebacking corps handle the loss of senior Sena Lee? Can former walk-on Josh Hull step up in the middle? Will Navorro Bowman or Bani Gbayu become playmakers opposite Tyrell Sales? How will the depth at DT withstand a 13 game schedule? Is the secondary, worst unit on the team last year, improved? Despite all of these questions on defense, the team still has high hopes.

I see Penn State going 10-2 in Big Ten play with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State. They should finally beat Michigan. They will beat Illinois. At 10-2 the worse bowl game they'd be in is the Outback Bowl (Big Ten #3). They could sneak into the Capital One Bowl if Wisconsin and Ohio State make the BCS. Not a bad year.

However, much like my NCAA 09 simulations, I could see Penn State finishing 9-4. They have a difficult October schedule and they could be bitten by looking ahead a game or two.

In the end, Penn State should finish somewhere between 11-2 and 9-4. Cut that down the middle and you get 10-3. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

LET'S GO STATE!

The Ultimate NCAA Football 09 Predictions: Penn State

Over the past few days I have posted the results from my NCAA Football 09 simulations. On Wednesday, a 1-season simulation was posted. The results were not the best for Penn State. A 7-6 record, including an Alamo Bowl game loss to Texas A&M. Not the best by a long shot. Of course we know that doing one simulation using theoretical players, play-calling, injuries, etc. can't tell us much. A larger data set could. Therefore I simulated the 2008 college football season 10 times using EA Sports NCAA Football 09. Today's post focuses solely on Penn State and the results for them during the 10 simulations. How should Penn State fair this season according to the video game results? The answer seems to be in line with what many "experts" and Nittany Lion fans believe.

Below is the final Top 25 after aggregating the 10 simulation results together. Overall the simulation seems to Penn State finishing ranked 23rd in the nation at the conclusion of the 2008-2009 college football season. This seems reasonable. A ranking in that vicinity would most likely mean the team wins 9 games. There are two scenarios as to how PSU could finish there: go 8-4 and win their bowl game or go 9-3 and lose their bowl game. A 9-4 record usually slots a team between spots 16-25.

Final Rank

Team

1 

Florida 

2 

Ohio State 

3 

Wisconsin 

4 

USC 

5 

Missouri 

6 

West Virginia 

7 

Oklahoma 

8 

Clemson 

9 

Arizona State 

10 

Tennessee 

11 

Florida State 

12 

Texas 

13 

Texas Tech 

14 

BYU 

15 

LSU 

16 

Boise State 

17 

Texas A&M 

18 

Georgia 

19 

South Carolina 

20 

Virginia Tech 

21 

Auburn 

22 

Nebraska 

23 

Penn State 

24 

Pittsburgh 

25 

UCF 


In order to evaluate the teams I came up with a few different variables. The data set includes 10-sim. Average wins, losses, and rank, change in rank, adjusted rank, and the number a team appears in the Top 25, 10, 5, as well as any National Championships won. The following text is a copy of the explanation from my post yesterday. How did I determine average rank and if a team was over- or underrated? Glad you asked. You probably figured out how I got the average wins/losses per team. I, um, averaged their wins/losses over the 10 simulations. Easy enough. The number of appearances in the Top 25, 10, and 5 were simply summed across the 10 simulations as well. The other things took a little creativity.

The average rank is what it is. I took an average of every team's final ranking over the 10 sims. Unfortunately NCAA 09 does not rank any team past 25 at the end of the season (though they do rank them before it). So in order to take a non-ranked season into account I had to, crudely, apply a number to each team. For simplicity I based it on wins (note: I kept the simulations Top 25; those teams' ranks were not altered). Any team that receives an NR (not ranked) needed a value. I gave any team with 11 or 10 wins not in the Top 25 an arbitrary value of 30. Common sense will say that, ultimately, these teams just missed the Top 25 cut and would have been (most likely) ranked between 26 and 35. A rank of 30 fits in there nicely. This type of ranking percolated all the way down to teams finishing with 0 wins (I kept track of 83 of the teams in the game). A team outside of the Top 25 with 9 wins received a rank of 40. Teams with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 wins garnered a 50, 60, 70, 80, 90, 100, respectively. The few teams that had awful seasons (2 wins or less) were ranked 110. I know that isn't an ideal way to rank teams out of the Top 25. But without the game doing it, how else can I do it? I think this way is fair.

The average ranks were used to create the adjusted rank. This is simply sorting the average ranks from lowest to highest. The lowest average rank (Florida, 6) was assigned adjusted rank #1 and the lowest average rank (Vanderbilt, 104) given #83. The lower part of the ranked teams is a bit useless since I am missing 37 teams in the study. However it is doubtful that any of those missing teams would ever crack the Top 50 (I used EAs preseason Top 75 and then a few sparse extras that turned up in any of the 10 simulations, that's how I got to 83 teams).

OK all that is left is how you determine how is over- and underrated. To do this I simply took a team's adjusted rank (i.e. Florida at #1) and subtracted it from EAs preseason rank (Florida is 5). In this case Florida would boast a -4. Any number below 0 indicates an underrated team. The larger the number, the more underrated. Overrated is simply the opposite. Georgia was EAs preseason #1. In this study their adjusted rank was 18. That is a +17. That's bad. The larger the positive number, the more overrated they were in the study.

So there ya go. That's how I did it. I feel like I am writing a scientific paper. Enough with methods. On to more Penn State results (resume new content)!

Here are the average wins/losses and rank for the final Top 25...

10-sim Average

Team

Wins

Losses

Rank

Florida 

12 

2 

6 

Ohio State 

11 

2 

7 

Wisconsin

11 

2 

7 

USC 

11 

2 

8 

Missouri 

12 

2 

9 

West Virginia 

12 

1 

9 

Oklahoma 

12 

2 

9 

Clemson 

12 

2 

11 

Arizona State 

11 

3 

15 

Tennessee 

10 

3 

15 

Florida State 

10 

3 

20 

Texas 

10 

3 

21 

Texas Tech 

10 

3 

22 

BYU 

10 

3 

26 

LSU 

9 

4 

27 

Boise State 

10 

3 

27 

Texas A&M 

10 

4 

27

Georgia 

9 

4 

28 

South Carolina 

9 

4 

31 

Virginia Tech 

9 

4 

32 

Auburn 

9 

4 

34 

Nebraska 

9 

4 

34 

Penn State 

9 

4 

36 

Pittsburgh 

9 

4 

39 

UCF 

9 

4 

40 


So there Penn State is, at an average rank of 36th in the nation which is adjusted to 23rd. Not too bad I guess. Except EA's ratings started Penn State at 13th. Eep. Penn State was/is overrated according to the game. The chart below is an excerpt from the overrated chart created from the 10 simulations. Each of these teams was deemed as overrated according to their average starting rank and end rank.

Team

Avg.

Wins

Avg.

Losses

Avg.

Rank

Δ

Rank

Adj.

Rank

Oregon State

5

7

82

39

75

Boston College

6

7

71

28

65

Iowa

4

8

91

22

81

Georgia

9

4

28

17

18

Illinois

7

6

51

15

33

Minnesota

5

8

83

12

76

Penn State

9

4

36

10

23

LSU

9

4

27

9

15

Oklahoma

12

2

9

5

7

Auburn

9

4

34

5

21


For Penn State to not be considered overrated they'd have to finish no lower than 17th, if we give the the underrated/overrated change in rank a leeway of +/- 4. Penn State would have to win 10 games to meet exopectations this season. That is certainly attainable. I alluded to this at the beginning with their final rank, but how many wins did PSU average over the 10 simulations?

The chart below shows 10-sim. Average wins, losses, and rank, as well as their change in rank and adjusted final rank. Teams included are Penn State, the rest of the Big Ten, some of this years top ranked teams, and any teams that may be of interest to Penn State fans (Notre Dame, Oregon State, etc.).

 

10-sim Avg.

  

Team

Ws

Ls

Rank

Δ

Rank

Adj.

Rank

Alabama

7

6

48

7

29

Auburn

9

4

34

5

21

Boston College

6

7

71

28

65

Florida

12

2

6

-4

1

Florida State

10

3

20

-18

11

Georgia

9

4

28

17

18

Illinois

7

6

51

15

33

Indiana

7

6

60

-15

50

Iowa

4

8

91

22

81

LSU

9

4

27

9

15

Michigan

8

5

49

3

30

Michigan State

8

5

51

0

34

Minnesota

5

8

83

12

76

Missouri

12

2

9

-2

5

Northwestern

6

7

73

-6

67

Notre Dame

7

5

55

-11

42

Ohio State

11

2

7

-1

2

Oklahoma

12

2

9

5

7

Oregon State

5

7

82

39

75

Penn State

9

4

36

10

23

Pittsburgh

9

4

39

-14

24

Purdue

7

5

55

-1

43

Rutgers

8

5

52

-18

37

Texas

10

3

21

2

12

USC

11

2

8

0

4

West Virginia

12

1

9

-2

6

Wisconsin

11

2

7

-6

3


So Penn State averaged 9 wins and 4 losses as predicted. They are expected to finish 23rd, 1 spot ahead of state rival Pittsburgh (who was underrated). A record of 9-4 would place Penn State 3rd in the Big Ten, behind Ohio State (11-2, ranked 2nd) and Wisconsin (11-2, ranked 3rd). With the distance between these three teams leads me to this conclusion: Ohio State wins the Big Ten and then the Rose Bowl, Wisconsin gets an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl and wins it, Penn State heads to the Capital One bowl and loses. I have Penn State losing the Bowl Game based on the fact that the 3rd place team in the Big Ten would not be ranked so low prior to the bowl, especially with a record of 9-3. Penn State most likely would be ranked 14th-17th prior to the game. A loss drops them to 9-4 and a 23rd rank. The chart below is the second set of data from the analysis. This chart includes the number of teams a team made the Top 25, 10, 5, and won National Championships. Again it only includes Penn State, the rest of the Big Ten, some of this years top ranked teams, and any teams that may be of interest to Penn State fans.

Team

Top 25

Top 10

Top 5

National

Champs.

Alabama

4

1

0

0

Auburn

6

0

0

0

Boston College

1

0

0

0

Florida

10

9

6

3

Florida State

8

2

2

0

Georgia

7

2

2

0

Illinois

3

1

0

0

Indiana

1

0

0

0

Iowa

0

0

0

0

LSU

6

4

1

0

Michigan

3

1

0

0

Michigan State

2

0

0

0

Minnesota

0

0

0

0

Missouri

10

6

3

1

Northwestern

0

0

0

0

Notre Dame

2

0

0

0

Ohio State

10

9

4

1

Oklahoma

9

7

6

0

Oregon State

0

0

0

0

Penn State

4

2

0

0

Pittsburgh

5

0

0

0

Purdue

2

0

0

0

Rutgers

1

0

0

0

Texas

7

6

2

0

USC

10

5

4

1

West Virginia

9

8

5

1

Wisconsin

10

8

5

0


 

Wow, Penn State only finished in the Top 25 on four occasions. That's not to promising. However, two of the four were Top 10 finishes. So it seems to say that if Penn State has a good year it could turn out great. Odds are, according to this analysis, that PSU has only a 40% chance of finishing the year in the Top 25 and 20% chance of being in the Top 10. Not too great. But obviously don't take these simulations as 100% truth. There are plenty of drawbacks of doing this. It was just too fun to pass up.

I was too lazy to accumulate and compile every Bowl game result for every team but I did summarize the BCS games: National Championship, Rose, Orange, Sugar, and Fiesta. Here is a look at them, simulation by simulation…

Sim 1

 

Sim 2

BCS

National Championship 

 

BCS

National Championship

USC 

Missouri 

 

Clemson 

Missouri 

41 

20 

 

31 

37 

     

Rose Bowl 

 

Rose Bowl 

Michigan 

Washington 

 

Penn State 

USC 

38 

34 

 

14 

21 

     

Orange Bowl 

 

Orange Bowl 

Clemson 

West Virginia 

 

Oklahoma 

West Virginia 

42 

20 

 

35 

42 

     

Sugar Bowl 

 

Sugar Bowl 

South Carolina

Ohio State 

 

LSU 

Boise State 

7 

42 

 

41 

34 

     

Fiesta Bowl 

 

Fiesta Bowl 

Florida State 

Texas Tech 

 

Wisconsin 

Florida 

26 

7 

 

27 

31 


 

Sim 3

 

Sim 4

BCS

National Championship 

 

BCS

National Championship 

West Virginia 

Tennessee 

 

Florida 

West Virginia

14 

40 

 

20 

31 

     

Rose Bowl 

 

Rose Bowl 

Ohio State 

USC 

 

Ohio State 

USC 

42 

28 

 

23 

40 

     

Orange Bowl 

 

Orange Bowl 

Clemson 

Wisconsin 

 

Florida State 

Illinois 

29 

52 

 

21 

17 

     

Sugar Bowl 

 

Sugar Bowl 

Hawai'i 

LSU 

 

Georgia 

Arizona State 

13 

35 

 

28 

24

     

Fiesta Bowl 

 

Fiesta Bowl 

Oklahoma 

Notre Dame 

 

Texas A&M 

BYU 

24 

17 

 

49 

27 


 

Sim 5

 

Sim 6

BCS

National Championship 

 

BCS

National Championship 

Clemson 

Oklahoma 

 

Arizona State 

Florida 

48 

34 

 

13 

55 

     

Rose Bowl 

 

Rose Bowl 

Wisconsin 

USC 

 

Ohio State

San Diego State 

24 

14 

 

13 

17 

     

Orange Bowl 

 

Orange Bowl 

Ohio State 

West Virginia 

 

Georgia Tech 

West Virginia 

24 

34 

 

24 

21 

     

Sugar Bowl 

 

Sugar Bowl 

Georgia 

Oregon 

 

Boise State 

Wisconsin 

45 

28 

 

33 

37 

     

Fiesta Bowl 

 

Fiesta Bowl 

Missouri

Florida State 

 

Oklahoma 

South Carolina 

32 

28 

 

45 

21 


 

Sim 7

 

Sim 8

BCS

National Championship 

 

BCS

National Championship 

BYU 

Clemson 

 

Texas 

Ohio State 

38 

45 

 

14 

45 

     

Rose Bowl 

 

Rose Bowl 

Ohio State 

Arizona State 

 

Boise State 

USC 

35 

0 

 

14 

21

     

Orange Bowl 

 

Orange Bowl 

Missouri 

West Virginia 

 

Florida State 

Pittsburgh 

   

59 

21 

     

Sugar Bowl 

 

Sugar Bowl 

Florida 

Wisconsin 

 

Florida 

Wisconsin 

53 

34 

 

48 

7 

     

Fiesta Bowl 

 

Fiesta Bowl 

Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

 

Oklahoma 

Tennessee 

48 

10 

 

30

16 


 

Sim 9

 

Sim 10

BCS

National Championship 

 

BCS

National Championship 

Florida 

West Virginia 

 

Wisconsin 

Florida 

31 

22 

 

30 

44 

     

Rose Bowl 

 

Rose Bowl 

Wisconsin 

USC 

 

Penn State 

USC 

42 

16 

 

16 

42 

     

Orange Bowl 

 

Orange Bowl 

Clemson 

South Carolina

 

Miami 

Pittsburgh 

24 

20 

 

33 

22 

     

Sugar Bowl 

 

Sugar Bowl 

Texas 

Northern Illinois 

 

Oklahoma 

LSU 

42 

14 

 

21 

31 

     

Fiesta Bowl 

 

Fiesta Bowl 

Oklahoma 

Ohio State 

 

Missouri 

Oregon 

46 

28 

 

48 

17 


 

Hey, we made the Rose Bowl twice! Unfortunately they were both losses. At least the computer thinks there is a chance for a Big Ten Championship (10%) or highly successful season.

A lot of variance and not too many duplicates overall. There were a lot of different teams taking their game to the big bowls. Good for them. What are the chance of Arizona State, Northern Illinois, Michigan, Hawai'i, and Notre Dame doing that this year? Probably not too high. But, hey, as last year proved, there is a reason for the cliché anything can happen.

For Penn State I chronicled all 10 simulations (for better or worse). The results are below, including Bowl Games (if we made one)...

Penn State 

Sim 1 

Result 

Penn State 

Sim 2 

Result 

vs Coastal Carolina 

35-7 

W 

vs Coastal Carolina 

37-0 

W 

vs Oregon State 

27-14 

W 

vs Oregon State

48-21 

W 

at Syracuse 

10-13 

L 

at Syracuse 

34-13 

W 

Temple 

60-7 

W 

Temple 

37-10 

W 

Illinois 

35-31 

W 

Illinois 

37-34 OT 

W 

at Purdue 

17-14 

W 

at Purdue 

52-21 

W 

at Wisconsin 

20-27 OT 

L 

at Wisconsin 

42-28 

W 

Michigan 

30-51 

L 

Michigan 

31-14 

W 

at Ohio State

13-30 

L 

at Ohio State 

31-24 

W 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

at Iowa 

39-16 

W 

at Iowa 

36-0 

W 

Indiana 

31-35 

L 

Indiana 

34-23 

W 

Michigan State 

41-30 

W 

Michigan State 

58-35 

W 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Bowl Game 

Alamo 

Result 

Bowl Game 

Rose 

Result 

vs Texas A&M 

24-37

L 

vs USC 

14-21 

L 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

  

7 

6 

  

12 

1 


 

Penn State 

Sim 3 

Result 

Penn State 

Sim 4 

Result 

vs Coastal Carolina 

62-7 

W 

vs Coastal Carolina 

62-6 

W 

vs Oregon State 

27-6 

W 

vs Oregon State 

39-3 

W 

at Syracuse

37-10 

W 

at Syracuse 

41-16 

W 

Temple 

51-20 

W 

Temple 

41-7 

W 

Illinois 

21-31 

L 

Illinois 

17-21 

L 

at Purdue 

35-28 

W 

at Purdue 

45-6 

W 

at Wisconsin 

20-27 

L 

at Wisconsin 

38-34 

W 

Michigan 

41-14 

W 

Michigan 

22-20 

W 

at Ohio State 

42-39 

W 

at Ohio State 

17-35 

L

BYE 

----- 

----- 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

at Iowa 

38-13 

W 

at Iowa 

48-6 

W 

Indiana 

33-35 

L 

Indiana 

31-22 

W 

Michigan State 

17-30 

L 

Michigan State 

26-27 

L 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Bowl Game 

Insight 

Result 

Bowl Game 

Outback 

Result 

vs Oklahoma State 

33-28 

W 

vs Ole Miss 

29-21 

W

  

  

  

  

  

  

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

  

9 

4 

  

10 

3 


 

Penn State 

Sim 5 

Result 

Penn State 

Sim 6 

Result 

vs Coastal Carolina 

52-3 

W 

vs Coastal Carolina 

56-10 

W 

vs Oregon State 

34-28 

W 

vs Oregon State 

29-27 

W 

at Syracuse 

17-10 

W 

at Syracuse

34-17 

W 

Temple 

38-7 

W 

Temple 

43-17 

W 

Illinois 

24-6 

W 

Illinois 

38-16 

W 

at Purdue 

28-21 

W 

at Purdue 

30-27 

W 

at Wisconsin 

7-35 

L 

at Wisconsin 

35-45 

L 

Michigan 

24-28 

L 

Michigan 

21-28 

L 

at Ohio State 

14-38 

L 

at Ohio State 

24-34 

L 

BYE 

----- 

-----

BYE 

----- 

----- 

at Iowa 

48-17 

W 

at Iowa 

54-7 

W 

Indiana 

41-10 

W 

Indiana 

41-40 

W 

Michigan State 

38-12 

W 

Michigan State 

27-17 

W 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Bowl Game 

Outback 

Result 

Bowl Game 

Outback 

Result 

vs Auburn 

31-34 

L 

vs Ole Miss 

16-37 

L 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Final Record

Wins 

Losses 

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

  

9 

4 

  

9 

4 


 

Penn State 

Sim 7 

Result 

Penn State 

Sim 8 

Result 

vs Coastal Carolina 

52-6 

W 

vs Coastal Carolina 

63-7 

W 

vs Oregon State 

31-17 

W 

vs Oregon State 

17-10 

W 

at Syracuse 

43-14 

W 

at Syracuse 

52-10 

W 

Temple

21-9 

W 

Temple 

49-13 

W 

Illinois 

41-17 

W 

Illinois 

38-7 

W 

at Purdue 

28-44 

L 

at Purdue 

25-31 

L 

at Wisconsin 

17-48 

L 

at Wisconsin 

17-49 

L 

Michigan 

17-38 

L 

Michigan 

14-24 

L 

at Ohio State 

17-49 

L 

at Ohio State 

14-56 

L 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

at Iowa

49-14 

W 

at Iowa 

52-17 

W 

Indiana 

45-35 

W 

Indiana 

45-7 

W 

Michigan State 

42-16 

W 

Michigan State 

24-30 OT 

L 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Bowl Game 

Outback 

Result 

Bowl Game 

Liberty 

Result 

vs South Carolina 

38-55 

L 

vs UCF 

27-26 

W 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

Final Record

Wins 

Losses 

  

8 

5 

  

8 

5 


 

Penn State 

Sim 9 

Result 

Penn State 

Sim 10 

Result 

vs Coastal Carolina 

37-10 

W 

vs Coastal Carolina 

35-3 

W 

vs Oregon State 

28-15 

W 

vs Oregon State 

61-14 

W 

at Syracuse 

28-7 

W 

at Syracuse 

24-6 

W 

Temple 

21-24 OT 

L 

Temple 

24-3 

W 

Illinois 

41-20 

W 

Illinois 

38-21 

W 

at Purdue 

19-21 

L 

at Purdue 

31-13 

W 

at Wisconsin 

9-28 

L 

at Wisconsin 

31-42 

L 

Michigan 

24-25 

L 

Michigan 

24-6 

W 

at Ohio State 

14-31 

L 

at Ohio State 

31-54 

L 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

BYE 

----- 

----- 

at Iowa 

38-35 

W

at Iowa 

35-10 

W 

Indiana 

31-34 

L 

Indiana 

27-26 

W 

Michigan State 

40-33 

W 

Michigan State 

49-14 

W 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Bowl Game 

Insight 

Result 

Bowl Game 

Rose 

Result 

vs Arizona 

16-24 

L 

vs USC 

16-42 

L 

  

  

  

  

  

  

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses 

Final Record 

Wins 

Losses

  

6 

7 

  

10 

3 


 

Simulations 2 and 10 are the best. Number 2 resulted in a Big Ten championship and Rose Bowl berth and 10 took us there as well, but not Big Ten title. Sim. number 9 was dreadful. A losing record? What is this, 2004? Highly unlikely, though based on this there is a 10% chance. God, I hope not. You may be going through the simulations to see how fared against each team or what happened in each Bowl Game. No need, I have you covered.

10-sim Average

Wins

Losses

 

  

9

4

 
    

Bowl Game

Appearances

Wins

Losses

Outback

4

1

3

Insight

2

1

1

Rose

2

0

2

Alamo

1

0

1

Liberty

1

1

0

    

vs. Opponents

Wins

Losses

Win %

vs. Coastal Carolina

10

0

100%

vs. Oregon State

10

0

100%

at Syracuse

9

1

90%

Temple

9

1

90%

Illinois

8

2

80%

at Purdue

7

3

70%

at Wisconsin

2

8

20%

Michigan

4

6

40%

at Ohio State

2

8

20%

at Iowa

10

0

100%

Indiana

7

3

70%

Michigan State

7

3

70%


 

Well that's not a very good bowl record (3-7). We made the Outback Bowl 4 times. I'm not sure how the fan base would react if that were to happen this year. I think most are expecting a Capital One berth (as the Big Ten's #2 or 3 team). Sadly, we didn't make that game once. We also ended up at some pretty crappy bowls (Insight, Liberty).

Looking at our record versus each of the opponents on are schedule this year could be hazardous to your health. While there was at least 1 expected outcome (100% chance of beating Coastal Carolina) there were also a few surprising (100% chance of beating Oregon State, Iowa) as well as disturbing ones. There is a 10% chance of losing to Syracuse and Temple? I hope not. I do like the 80% success rate against overrated Illinois. However the heart of the schedule, the gauntlet in successive weeks at Wisconsin, versus Michigan, and at Ohio State was disheartening. Against the Big Ten favorites, Ohio State and Wisconsin, we won 4 of 20 games (2 versus each team). In reality, I don't dispute this. I think Ohio State and Wisconsin are better than us. I actually would place our chances at taking down Ohio State in Columbus at less than 10%. However I may bump up our chances at Wisconsin, but not by much. Maybe to 30%. The Michigan results hurt much more. Does EA take into account how much we suck against them? Maybe. Only 4 wins against a mediocre team in Beaver Stadium? I hope not. Our win % for that game should be closer to 60%. Elsewhere, the Iowa result surprised me just because we were a perfect 10 for 10. We are better but winning every time was surprising. The Indiana and Michigan State games are at home and could be the last 2 of JoePa's career. I think our chances of winning the Indiana game are ~90%. Michigan State probably is right where it should be.

I definitely call this simulation analysis a success. I think Penn State finished right around where they should, on average. The 9-4 record seems acceptable for now. The game seems to agree that October 11th-25th will suck for us. Hopefully we will win 1 of the 3.

I hope you enjoyed this little project. I'd like to do the same for Madden and will attempt to next week, prior to the start of the season. I'm not promising anything but I may get to it. Thanks for reading.