Conference tournament predictions: Horizon

The Horizon League is a classic mid major. Despite its relative anonymity, its members have consistently played well against the big teams in the NCAA Tournament. 7 of the last 10 years have seen a Horizon League team win a game, and there has also been 3 Sweet 16 appearances, 2 by Butler and 1 by Wisconsin Milwaukee (when Bruce Pearl coached them).

This year, the league is dominated by Butler, who went 16-2 in conference, the 2 losses coming to 2 seed Cleveland State and 3 seed Wright State. Beyond that however, the league is very competitive, with the aforementioned CSU and WSU finishing 12-6 in conference, and four teams tied at 9-9. However, while Butler is virtually assured of making the dance regardless of what happens, every other team is in a must win situation. An upset wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility, as Wright State beat Butler in the conference final last year.

This league also has a different format than most, with the top 2 seeds granted byes to the semifinals. This places extra incentive on regular season play, and is a trick by the conference to help the better teams (read: the teams more likely to make upsets in the Big Dance) advance.

FIRST ROUND (at higher seed):

4 Illinois Chicago
9 Youngstown State

5 Wisconsin Milwaukee
8 Loyola Chicago

3 Wright State
10 Detroit
*NOTE: This post will be published after the 7PM tipoff of Wright State/Detroit. I swear I did not look at the score.

6 Valparaiso
7 Wisconsin Green Bay

SECOND ROUND (at Butler):
4 Illinois Chicago
5 Wisconsin Milwaukee

3 Wright State
6 Valparaiso

SEMIFINALS (at Butler), Saturday 3/8 on ESPNU:
1 Butler
4 Illinois Chicago

2 Cleveland State
6 Valparaiso

CHAMPIONSHIP (at Butler or higher seed), Tuesday 3/11 on ESPN:
1 Butler
2 Cleveland State

Butler is just too strong this year. The upset in the title game last year technically wasn't, as Wright State was the number 1 seed and thus had home court advantage. And while the Vikings from Cleveland have beaten Butler this season, that was in January on their home court, and Butler won the rematch in February. It would be hard to imagine them dropping two of three to any team in this conference.