Friday, September 12, 2008

Madden 09 1-season Simulation Results

I am simulating the current NFL season using Madden 09 as a simulation engine, as I did for the 2008-2009 NCAA Football season (1-season results, 10-simulation average results). ESPN Video Games does this on a weekly basis for marquee college games and every NFL game. I am taking it a step farther and doing this all at one time, at an attempt to predict what will happen this season.

I have waited until after week 1 to get the latest Madden 09 roster update, released today. Here are the guidelines so you can understand how this data was obtained:

  • Rosters - I used the latest roster update available from EA (released on 9/12/2008). This includes a few ratings bumps and players transferred to IR, most notably Tom Brady. I only tweaked a few parts of the rosters. I added a few free agents to their respective teams that EA overlooked (i.e. Eddie Kennison to the Rams, Chris Simms to the Titans). This should have little - if any - impact on the results but it is a more realistic interpretation of the current rosters. NO PLAYERS ATTRIBUTES WERE CHANGED.
  • Injuries - Since this is a simulation (as in there are no games played by a human), I turned off the sim. injuries when starting the franchise. Therefore no one gets injured as the season plays out. I am leaving the preexisting injuries on so, like I said, no Tom Brady for New England.
  • Simulation Start - Each sim. will begin in week 1. The franchise is saved after the preseason so that any players signed by the teams remains constant throughout each simulation. Teams did sign some available free agents though their impact is minor, if any.
OK so there are my guidelines. This post shows only a 1-season simulation. The 10-sim conglomerate will be coming in the next few days. So what does Madden 09 believe will happen during this NFL season? Take a look...

Team

Conference

Division

Wins

Losses

Baltimore Ravens

AFC

North

8

8

Cincinnati Bengals

AFC

North

3

13

Cleveland Browns

AFC

North

5

11

Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC

North

11

5

Houston Texans

AFC

South

9

7

Indianapolis Colts

AFC

South

12

4

Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC

South

12

4

Tennessee Titans

AFC

South

7

9

Buffalo Bills

AFC

East

9

7

Miami Dolphins

AFC

East

4

12

New England Patriots

AFC

East

6

10

New York Jets

AFC

East

8

8

Denver Broncos

AFC

West

4

12

Kansas City Chiefs

AFC

West

9

7

Oakland Raiders

AFC

West

6

10

San Diego Chargers

AFC

West

10

6

Chicago Bears

NFC

North

8

8

Detroit Lions

NFC

North

6

10

Green Bay Packers

NFC

North

6

10

Minnesota Vikings

NFC

North

9

7

Atlanta Falcons

NFC

South

6

9

Carolina Panthers

NFC

South

10

6

New Orleans Saints

NFC

South

6

9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFC

South

12

4

Dallas Cowboys

NFC

East

7

9

New York Giants

NFC

East

5

11

Philadelphia Eagles

NFC

East

13

3

Washington Redskins

NFC

East

9

7

Arizona Cardinals

NFC

West

7

9

San Francisco 49ers

NFC

West

11

5

Seattle Seahawks

NFC

West

7

9

St. Louis Rams

NFC

West

10

6


Not too ridiculous. The 49ers winning the West is probably the only thing you can definitely say won't happen. Dallas looked like a team that is much better than 7-9. Denver is better than 4-12, too. The Falcons and Saints tied a game that's why the are both 6-9, they were actually 6-9-1. OK so who made it to Super Bowl XLIII?

We have the first instance of a team playing a Super Bowl in front of a home crowd. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made it to the 43rd Super Bowl, played at Raymond James Stadium, their very own stadium. The Jacksonville Jaguars made it an all-Florida matchup. And the home team emerged victorious. The Buccaneers dismissed the Jaguars in a tight game, 35-27. Jeff Garcia was named MVP.

So there is a quick 1-season simulation. I'll have much more following the completion of 10-simulations. Stay tuned!

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