2009 NFL Draft Grades: Overview

The 2009 NFL Draft is over. How did your team do? While I'm sure your opinion will be at least slightly different than mine, I will be offering up my take on how all 32 NFL teams fared during this year's "NFL Player Selection Meeting". Before starting with my team recaps and grades (first two out tomorrow), let's get a little information on how this will work.

It is said over and over again that you can't truly grade a draft class until the players have participated in 3 full NFL seasons. So why do we do them? Well it's something to do during the football doldrums. May through July, and much of August, is a boring time to be a football fan. Sure there are minicamps, OTAs, training camp, and preseason games but nothing compares to Sunday's in the fall. Another reason for the grades is because we spend so much time predicting what will happen we need to recap it somehow and the best way to do that is to grade the team based on perceived needs and value.

But that's where my grades will be a tad different. Teams draft players for two reasons: their talent (current or potential) and team needs. Why don't we grade them both ways? Talent is predicted; we don't know how each individual player will fare, hence needing to wait three seasons to properly evaluate a class. However we do know what each team needs. Evaluationg both instances we can get a better grasp on how a team did in the draft.

Many sites already do this but it's convoluted and condensed. I will try to evaluate both categories for each team. There will be a grade for each category, talent and need, then a final overall grade.

I'll be going in 1st round order, negating any trades. Here's a bit of a preview that will give you an idea of when I'll get to your team...

4/30/2009 - Overview
5/1/2009 - Lions & Rams
5/4/2009 - Chiefs & Seahawks
5/5/2009 - Browns & Bengals
5/6/2009 - Raiders & Jaguars
5/7/2009 - Packers & 49ers
5/8/2009 - Bills & Broncos
5/11/2009 - Redskins & Saints
5/12/2009 - Texans & Chargers
5/13/2009 - Jets & Bears
5/14/2009 - Buccaneers & Cowboys
5/15/2009 - Eagles & Vikings
5/18/2009 - Patriots & Falcons
5/19/2009 - Dolphins & Ravens
5/20/2009 - Colts & Panthers
5/21/2009 - Giants & Titans
5/22/2009 - Cardinals & Steelers
5/25/2009 - Recap

UP NEXT

ON DECK

I Am a Winner, Redux

Just a few weeks back I wrote on my personal blog that I had won a contest for my hobby of choice that does not have to do with sports (read: Star Wars collecting).

Well today my friends I can tell you here that I have won a contest that does have to do with sports.

I entered the Centre Daily Times' (online-only) draft contest. And won*.

Just in case the link stops working in the future, here is screen grab proof.

I win! I win!

A couple of things to get you in the know.

First, I heard about the contest through Twitter. You can follow the CDT here and their sports-only tweets here.

Second, here are the questions posed to the readers. Complete with my answers, of course.

1. How many Nittany Lions will be selected in the seven rounds of the draft?

• 5
  

2. Will defensive end Aaron Maybin be a top-10 pick?

• No
  

3. Who will be the first Penn State offensive lineman taken — A.Q. Shipley or Gerald Cadogan?

• Cadogan

I nailed the first and second questions but bombed #3. Apparently a bunch of people got 2/3 but since I got the first and second one correct, I won. The questions were not worth the same amount of points apparently.

Third, yes, the announcement article says that A.Q. Shipley was the first Penn State o-lineman drafted this year. Incorrect. Rich Ohrnberger was taken 123rd overall (4th round) by the Patriots.

I'd like to thank the Centre Daily Times for hosting the contest and for sending me my prize, a book. As soon as I'm home to check out the book I'll let you all know. You care, I know you do.

*If you examine the link URL, you'll notice this was classified as "breaking news". Yes, I'm that important.

SI Goes for Sure Thing, Fails

I can't fault them too much but it has to be pointed out. In last week's issue of Sports Illustrated there was an article on the OMG GREATEST LBs EVER!!! You know who I'm talking about. USCs Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, and Clay Matthews. In fact, they graced the cover.

Sports Illustrated cover from April 27, 2009.

The article on the inside, written by Austin Murphy, basically goes on and on how these are some of the greatest collegiate LBs of All-Time. OK. Sure. Present almost always stumps past. Anyway, the abbreviated introduction for Murphy's article about the beastly USC 'backers goes like this:

History will be made in this year's NFL talent lottery when USC linebackers BRIAN CUSHING, CLAY MATTHEWS, and REY MAUALUGA become the first trio of players from the same unit to be selected in the first round. The burning question: Who comes first?

I'll answer the question first. It was Brian Cushing, who went 15th overall to the Houston Texans. Next came Clay Matthews, whom the Packers selcted with the 26th pick acquired from New England through Baltimore. What happened to Maualuga?

He fell to round two.

Yep, the one of the OMG LBs wasn't selected in the first round. No one saw that coming.

USC MLB Rey Maualuga, thought to be a sure-fire first round selection last Saturday, dropped into round two. His free fall ended when the Bengals selected him 38th overall. He now gets to play with former teammate, and Cincinnati's first round pick in 2008, Keith Rivers.

Let's revisit something.

History will be made in this year's NFL talent lottery when USC linebackers BRIAN CUSHING, CLAY MATTHEWS, and REY MAUALUGA become the first trio of players from the same unit to be selected in the first round.

Red emphasis mine, bold theirs.

Better luck next year, Austin (and/or SI).

If I were the editor in charge of reviewing this prior to publication there is no way I would have allowed them to publish that introduction. First off, the draft is a tough thing to predict. I, along with countless others, do mocks to test our football knowledge. They're for fun. This article, circulated to millions of people, guaranteed that all three would be taken in round one. "History will be made...". Didn't happen and now they must clean the egg off their face. If anyone besides me noticed. I'll probably find out later today when the new SI is in my mailbox. I'm sure someone else noticed it and immediately sent SI a kind letter.

Secondly, there were some murmurs and rumors circulating that Clay Matthews could fall in to round two for the last month or so. So this was not a slam dunk like SI wanted you to believe. In the end they pay.

Not a big thing but I just wanted to point it out.

2009 NFL Predictions: Extremely Early Edition

The 2009 NFL Draft is in the books. Now we have to wait until the end of July for training camp, August for preseason games, and September for meaningful football. What ever shall we do? There's always time for predictions sure to be wrong come January. But they are fun. And fun is good.

Here is my first take at how the 2009 NFL season will play out, filled with approximate records, division champs, and playoff results. I'll do this at least twice more, most likely as training camp starts and right before the regular season begins.

You can see my 2008 predictions here (extremely early), here (start of training camp), here (start of regular season), and my recap following the conclusion of the season.

TEAM	WIN-LOSS	NOTES
AFC
North
Baltimore Ravens	11-5	Division Champ.
Pittsburgh Steelers	10-6	Wild Card
Cincinnati Bengals	7-9
Cleveland Browns	4-12
South
Indianapolis Colts	11-5	Division Champ.
Jacksonville Jaguars	9-7	Wild Card
Tennessee Titans	9-7
Houston Texans	8-8
East
New England Patriots	12-4	Division Champ.
Miami Dolphins	8-8
New York Jets	7-9
Buffalo Bills	7-9
West
San Diego Chargers	11-5	Division Champ.
Denver Broncos	6-10
Oakland Raiders	5-11
Kansas City Chiefs	4-12
NFC
North
Chicago Bears	10-6	Division Champ.
Green Bay Packers	9-7	Wild Card
Minnesota Vikings	9-7
Detroit Lions	3-13
South
New Orleans Saints	11-5	Division Champ.
Carolina Panthers	9-7
Atlanta Falcons	7-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5-11
East
Philadelphia Eagles	12-4	Division Champ.
New York Giants	11-5	Wild Card
Dallas Cowboys	8-8
Washington Redskins	7-9
West
Arizona Cardinals	9-7	Division Champ.
Seattle Seahawks	8-8
San Francisco 49ers	6-10
St. Louis Rams	3-13

So there are my way too early predictions on how the 2009 season will play out.

Surprises? I've got surprises. Well, to me at least.
Ravens win AFC North over the Steelers - It's hard to repeat in this league and the Ravens appear better on paper this year. Plus Flacco has a year under his belt now.

The Titans fail to make the playoffs - It was a great year for Tennessee but I don't see them repeating what they were able to do in the 2008 regular season. The division is too deep. The Colts remain one of The League's best, the Jags will rebound, and the Texans are slowly getting better.

The Patriots are back on top - Would the Patriots have won an extra game or two with Tom Brady? Maybe. The 3-point loss to the Colts and the OT loss to the Jets stand out. With those wins, the Patriots would have been 13-3 and division champs once more. Well Brady is back and the secondary was overhauled. Anything less than 12-4 should be seen as a failure.

The West is weak (part 1) - Hand the Chargers this division. There will be no competitors. San Diego has too much talent for Kansas City, Oakland, and Denver, who will all struggle to get to 7 wins in '09.

Jay Cutler will make a difference in Chicago - I like Kyle Orton but Jay Cutler has more talent. Despite the Bears receiving shortcomings, they have a solid ground game and an improved defense. The Cutler-lead Bears win the NFC North, squeaking past the Packers and Vikings. And Detroit wins a few games!

Worst to first continues - The NFC South is a funny division. Since its inception in 2002, the team that finished last won the division the following year. According to that logic it is New Orleans' turn. An 8-8 record would have been pretty good in the NFC West but not in the South last season. The Saints remain potent on offense and improve enough defensively to wisk the division crown from Carolina and hold off resurgent Atlanta, who I think will struggle some in '09.

The best race in 2009 - The Eagles and Giants are poised to have a great race this season. The Giants will have Osi Umenyiora back and easily the deepest d-line in The League. Manning has two new HUGE targets as well. However, the Eagles have made better upgrades. Andrews, Peters, Maclin, and McCoy prove too much for the G-men.

The West is weak (part 2) - A 9-7 record may very well win the dvision again. The Cardinals, while clutch in the playoffs, were very inconsistent during the 2008 regular season. Plus it's hard to maintain a high level of play as a Super Bowl loser. Seattle could make a comeback with a healthy Hasselbeck and receivers. San Francisco and St. Louis continue to tread water.

So those are my regular season predictions. How about the playoffs?

2009-2010 NFL Playoffs
Wild Card Round
AFC
(6) Jacksonville Jaguars	(3) Indianapolis Colts	(3) Colts, 31-21
(5) Pittsburgh Steelers	(4) Baltimore Ravens	(4) Ravens, 17-14
NFC
(6) Green Bay Packers	(3) Chicago Bears	(6) Packers, 37-24
(5) New York Giants	(4) Arizona Cardinals	(5) Giants, 24-13
Divisional Round
AFC
(4) Baltimore Ravens	(1) New England Patriots	(1) Patriots, 27-17
(3) Indianapolis Colts	(2) San Diego Chargers	(3) Colts, 21-17
NFC
(6) Green Bay Packers	(1) Philadelphia Eagles	(1) Eagles, 23-16
(5) New York Giants	(2) New Orleans Saints	(2) Saints, 34-31
Conference Championships
AFC
(3) Indianapolis Colts	(1) New England Patriots	(1) Patriots, 21-20
NFC
(2) New Orleans Saints	(1) Philadelphia Eagles	(1) Eagles, 30-27
Super Bowl XLIV
Philadelphia Eagles	New England Patriots	Patriots, 27-24

Yep, a repeat of Super Bowl XXXIX. And, yes, a 3-point loss by the Eagles. This one isn't in Jacksonville, however. It's in Miami.

What do you think?

Versions 2 and 3 will be released later this summer.